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Longtermism

TagLast edit: 13 Jul 2022 18:52 UTC by Leo

Longtermism is the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.[1][2]

Longtermism may be seen as following from the conjunction of three key claims.[3] First, future people matter morally. Second, the vast majority of people that will ever exist, if Earth-originating intelligence is not prematurely extinguished, exist in the future. Third, people alive today can predictably influence whether these people exist, and how well their lives go.

Types of longtermism

Strong vs. weak longtermism

Strong longtermism holds that positively influencing the long-term future is the key moral priority of our time. This form of longtermism was introduced by Hilary Greaves and Will MacAskill,[4] and has precedents in the work of Nick Bostrom,[5][6] Nick Beckstead,[7][8] and others. Note that the authors do not define or discuss “weak” longtermism; the contrast is rather with longtermism as such, which as noted above holds that positively influencing the long-term future is a key priority, but not necessarily the top priority.

Patient vs. urgent longtermism

This distinction can be explained in reference to the hinge of history hypothesis, i.e. the hypothesis that we are currently living at a time where humanity has unusually high influence over the long-term future. Urgent longtermists find the hypothesis plausible and, accordingly, hold that it makes sense to spend our altruistic resources relatively quickly. (Altruistic resources include not just financial assets, but other resources that can accumulate and be spent deliberately in the pursuit of altruistic goals, such as credibility, career capital and coordination ability.) By contrast, patient longtermists hold that the opportunities for influence are not concentrated in the near term and, in line with this, they favour investing these resources so that they can be deployed at some point in the future, when the moments of significant influence arrive.

Broad vs. targeted longtermism

This distinction was originally introduced by Nick Beckstead in his doctoral dissertation, On the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future.[9] Targeted (or narrow) longtermism attempts to positively influence the long-term future by focusing on specific, identifiable scenarios, such as the risks of misaligned AI or an engineered pandemic. By contrast, broad longtermism tries to have a long-term influence by pursuing general approaches with the potential to be useful in a broader range of contexts, such as building effective altruism or promoting global cooperation.

Both patient and urgent longtermism, and broad and targeted longtermism, are positions that exist on a continuum. The terms “urgent”/​”patient” and “broad”/​”targeted” divide these continua into two discrete regions, similarly to how the terms “tall” and “short” divide the height continuum. These distinctions may thus be seen as uncovering an underlying dimension along which longtermism can vary. Accordingly, the more relevant questions are “How patient/​urgent should longtermism be?” or “How broad/​targeted should longtermist interventions be?”, rather than “Should longtermism be patient or urgent?” or “Should longtermism be targeted or narrow?”

Other distinctions

One additional distinction sometimes made—which also originates in Greaves and MacAskill—is between axiological and deontic longtermism. (“Axiological” and “deontic” are technical terms borrowed from moral philosophy: “axiological” means “related to what is good or valuable” and “deontic” means “related to what we ought to do or have reason to do”.) Axiological longtermism holds that positively influencing the long-term future is among the most valuable things we can do, whereas deontic longtermism holds that positively influencing the long-term future is among the things we have most reason to do. Sometimes these views are combined with strong longtermism, so axiological strong longtermism becomes the view that influencing the long-term future is the most valuable thing to do and deontic strong longtermism becomes the view that influencing the long-term future is the thing we have most reason to do.

Another relevant distinction, introduced by the philosophers Johan Gustafsson and Petra Kosonen, is between normative and prudential longtermism.[10] Normative longtermism is longtermism as it is normally understood, i.e. as a view about what is valuable, or we have reason to do, from an impersonal or moral perspective. However, one can also consider a form of longtermism focused on what is in a person’s self-interest. If humans could live for thousands or millions of years, it could be argued that, even from a self-interested perspective, each person should focus primarily on the long-term effects of their actions, because a person’s lifetime wellbeing will be largely determined by those effects.

Further reading

Balfour, Dylan (2021) Longtermism: how much should we care about the far future?, 1000-Word Philosophy: An Introductory Anthology, September 17.

Beckstead, Nick (2019) A brief argument for the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future, in Hilary Greaves & Theron Pummer (eds.) Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 80–98.

MacAskill, William, Hilary Greaves & Elliott Thornley (2021) The moral case for long-term thinking, in Natalie Cargill & Tyler John (eds.) The Long View: Essays on Policy, Philanthropy, and the Long-Term Future, London: First, pp. 19–28.

Moorhouse, Fin (2021) Introduction to longtermism, Effective Altruism, January 27.

Roser, Max (2022) The future is vast: longtermism’s perspective on humanity’s past, present, and future, Our World in Data, March 15.

Todd, Benjamin (2017) Longtermism: the moral significance of future generations, 80,000 Hours, October.

Wikipedia (2021) Longtermism, Wikipedia, October 28 (updated 30 May 2022‎).

External links

Longtermism. Online introduction to longtermism.

Related entries

criticism of longtermism and existential risk studies | ethics of existential risk | existential risk | existential security | global health and wellbeing | long-range forecasting | longtermist institutional reform | macrostrategy | non-humans and the long-term future | patient altruism | trajectory change

  1. ^

    Ord, Toby (2020) The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity, London: Bloomsbury Publishing, p. 46.

  2. ^

    MacAskill, William (forthcoming) What We Owe the Future, New York: Basic Books.

  3. ^

    Moorhouse, Fin (2021) Introduction to longtermism, Effective Altruism, January 27.

  4. ^

    Greaves, Hilary & William Macaskill (2021) The case for strong longtermism, Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford.

  5. ^

    Bostrom, Nick (2003) Astronomical waste: The opportunity cost of delayed technological development, Utilitas, vol. 15, pp. 308–314.

  6. ^

    Bostrom, Nick (2013) Existential risk prevention as global priority, Global Policy, vol. 4, pp. 15–31.

  7. ^

    Beckstead, Nick (2013) On the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future, doctoral thesis, Rutgers University.

  8. ^

    Beckstead, Nick (2019) A brief argument for the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future, in Hilary Greaves & Theron Pummer (eds.) Effective Altruism: Philosophical Issues, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 80–98.

  9. ^

    Beckstead, Nick (2013) On the Overwhelming Importance of Shaping the Far Future, PhD thesis, Rutgers University.

  10. ^

    Gustafsson, Johan & Petra Kosonen (2022) ‘Prudential longtermism’, unpublished.

  11. ^

    MacAskill, William (2019) “Longtermism”, Effective Altruism Forum, July 25.

  12. ^

    Greaves, Hilary & William MacAskill (2021) The case for strong longtermism, working paper.

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11 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Long-Term Fu­ture Fund: May 2021 grant recommendations

abergal27 May 2021 6:44 UTC
110 points
17 comments57 min readEA link

[Question] Non-con­se­quen­tial­ist longtermism

Nathan_Barnard5 Jun 2021 1:48 UTC
13 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Astro­nom­i­cal Waste: The Op­por­tu­nity Cost of De­layed Tech­nolog­i­cal Devel­op­ment—Nick Bostrom (2003)

james10 Jun 2021 21:21 UTC
10 points
0 comments8 min readEA link
(www.nickbostrom.com)

An an­i­mated in­tro­duc­tion to longter­mism (feat. Robert Miles)

Writer21 Jun 2021 19:24 UTC
25 points
38 comments4 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Shelly Ka­gan—read­ings for Ethics and the Fu­ture sem­i­nar (spring 2021)

james29 Jun 2021 9:59 UTC
91 points
7 comments5 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

Help Re­think Pri­ori­ties Use Data for An­i­mals, Longter­mism, and EA

Peter Wildeford5 Jul 2021 17:20 UTC
59 points
3 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What are the long term con­se­quences of poverty alle­vi­a­tion?

Mati_Roy12 Jul 2021 18:14 UTC
18 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Pa­tient Longtermism

nora15 Mar 2021 9:13 UTC
45 points
6 comments3 min readEA link

A per­sonal take on longter­mist AI governance

lukeprog16 Jul 2021 22:08 UTC
162 points
5 comments12 min readEA link

Open Philan­thropy is seek­ing pro­pos­als for out­reach projects

abergal16 Jul 2021 20:34 UTC
168 points
13 comments10 min readEA link

Mo­gensen & MacAskill, ‘The paral­y­sis ar­gu­ment’

Pablo19 Jul 2021 14:04 UTC
14 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(quod.lib.umich.edu)

A Se­quence Against Strong Longter­mism

vadmas22 Jul 2021 20:07 UTC
20 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

AMA: The new Open Philan­thropy Tech­nol­ogy Policy Fellowship

lukeprog26 Jul 2021 15:11 UTC
38 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

Towards a longter­mist frame­work for eval­u­at­ing democ­racy-re­lated interventions

22tom28 Jul 2021 13:23 UTC
89 points
5 comments36 min readEA link

EA Sur­vey 2020: Cause Prioritization

David_Moss29 Jul 2021 18:06 UTC
98 points
13 comments4 min readEA link

Surveillance and free ex­pres­sion | Sunyshore

BrownHairedEevee23 Feb 2021 2:14 UTC
10 points
0 comments9 min readEA link
(sunyshore.substack.com)

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: Re­spon­dent Info

Eli Rose24 Aug 2021 17:32 UTC
27 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: What Helped and Hin­dered Our Respondents

Eli Rose29 Aug 2021 7:00 UTC
44 points
0 comments28 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: EA Groups

Eli Rose1 Sep 2021 1:01 UTC
35 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: In­tro­duc­tion & Sum­mary of Takeaways

Eli Rose19 Aug 2021 1:01 UTC
82 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: Methodology

Eli Rose23 Aug 2021 1:01 UTC
30 points
1 comment9 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: How Our Re­spon­dents First Learned About EA/​EA-Ad­ja­cent Ideas

Eli Rose6 Sep 2021 1:01 UTC
28 points
1 comment7 min readEA link

Open Phil EA/​LT Sur­vey 2020: Other Findings

Eli Rose9 Sep 2021 1:01 UTC
40 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

Ori­ent­ing to­wards the long-term fu­ture (Joseph Car­l­smith)

EA Global3 Nov 2017 7:43 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Mag­ni­tude of un­cer­tainty with longtermism

Venky102411 Sep 2021 14:48 UTC
13 points
9 comments1 min readEA link

Ma­jor UN re­port dis­cusses ex­is­ten­tial risk and fu­ture gen­er­a­tions (sum­mary)

finm17 Sep 2021 15:51 UTC
310 points
5 comments12 min readEA link

Teruji Thomas, ‘The Asym­me­try, Uncer­tainty, and the Long Term’

Pablo5 Nov 2019 20:24 UTC
40 points
5 comments1 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The most im­por­tant cen­tury and the rep­re­sen­ta­tive­ness of EA

Luke Eure28 Sep 2021 5:06 UTC
39 points
10 comments2 min readEA link

The LessWrong Team is now Light­cone In­fras­truc­ture, come work with us!

Habryka1 Oct 2021 4:36 UTC
62 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

How to Ac­cel­er­ate Tech­nolog­i­cal Progress—New Things Un­der the Sun

BrownHairedEevee3 Oct 2021 17:49 UTC
13 points
0 comments8 min readEA link
(www.newthingsunderthesun.com)

[Pod­cast] Ben Todd on Choos­ing a Ca­reer and Defin­ing Longtermism

finm4 Oct 2021 10:15 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(hearthisidea.com)

[Job ad] Re­search im­por­tant longter­mist top­ics at Re­think Pri­ori­ties!

Linch6 Oct 2021 19:09 UTC
65 points
46 comments1 min readEA link

Gen­eral vs spe­cific ar­gu­ments for the longter­mist im­por­tance of shap­ing AI development

Sam Clarke15 Oct 2021 14:43 UTC
42 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Mo­ral de­mands and the far future

Global Priorities Institute31 May 2020 13:36 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

“Nu­clear risk re­search, fore­cast­ing, & im­pact” [pre­sen­ta­tion]

MichaelA21 Oct 2021 10:54 UTC
13 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

The Phil Tor­res es­say in Aeon at­tack­ing Longter­mism might be good

timunderwood21 Oct 2021 0:32 UTC
16 points
11 comments2 min readEA link

[Question] “In­ter­gen­er­a­tional com­mu­ni­ca­tion”: could some­thing like “writ­ing let­ters to the fu­ture” sus­ci­tate in­ter­est in long-ter­mism?

Ramiro7 Nov 2021 23:35 UTC
10 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] What’s the GiveDirectly of longter­mism & ex­is­ten­tial risk?

Nathan Young15 Nov 2021 23:55 UTC
28 points
25 comments1 min readEA link

Reflect­ing on Steer­ing, Pit­falls, and History

Davidmanheim21 Nov 2021 8:05 UTC
31 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] Where should I donate?

BrownHairedEevee22 Nov 2021 20:56 UTC
29 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Mo­ti­va­tional Re­sources for Longtermists

Akash8 Dec 2021 19:58 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

In­creased Availa­bil­ity and Willing­ness for De­ploy­ment of Re­sources for Effec­tive Altru­ism and Long-Termism

Evan_Gaensbauer29 Dec 2021 20:20 UTC
45 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

The Precipice: In­tro­duc­tion and Chap­ter One

Toby_Ord2 Jan 2021 7:13 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

EA needs a hiring agency and Non­lin­ear will fund you to start one

Kat Woods17 Jan 2022 14:51 UTC
165 points
12 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] Ex­am­ples of pure al­tru­ism to­wards fu­ture gen­er­a­tions?

richard_ngo26 Jan 2022 16:42 UTC
15 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fu­ture Fund

Nick_Beckstead28 Feb 2022 17:26 UTC
370 points
175 comments4 min readEA link
(ftxfuturefund.org)

.01% Fund—Ideation and Proposal

Linch1 Mar 2022 18:25 UTC
64 points
23 comments4 min readEA link

Con­cerns with the Wel­lbe­ing of Fu­ture Gen­er­a­tions Bill

Larks9 Mar 2022 18:12 UTC
127 points
38 comments21 min readEA link

Up­date from Open Philan­thropy’s Longter­mist EA Move­ment-Build­ing team

ClaireZabel10 Mar 2022 19:37 UTC
197 points
19 comments13 min readEA link

NPR’s Indi­ca­tor on WHO fund­ing and pan­demic preparedness

BrownHairedEevee19 Mar 2022 1:37 UTC
14 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.npr.org)

8 pos­si­ble high-level goals for work on nu­clear risk

MichaelA29 Mar 2022 6:30 UTC
41 points
4 comments16 min readEA link

The Emo­tional Case For Longtermism

Simon Bazelon29 Mar 2022 19:46 UTC
29 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

Past and Fu­ture Tra­jec­tory Changes

N N28 Mar 2022 20:04 UTC
32 points
5 comments12 min readEA link
(goodoptics.wordpress.com)

Ideal gov­er­nance (for com­pa­nies, coun­tries and more)

Holden Karnofsky7 Apr 2022 16:54 UTC
74 points
14 comments14 min readEA link

Nu­clear risk re­search ideas: Sum­mary & introduction

MichaelA8 Apr 2022 11:17 UTC
82 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #1: AI take­off, longter­mism vs. ex­is­ten­tial risk, and prob­a­bil­ity discounting

Pablo23 Apr 2022 23:32 UTC
57 points
2 comments15 min readEA link

[Question] Who are the lead­ing ad­vo­cates, and what are the top pub­li­ca­tions on broad longter­mism?

Jordan Arel28 Apr 2022 2:57 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

EA is more than longtermism

frances_lorenz3 May 2022 15:18 UTC
156 points
98 comments5 min readEA link

What We Owe the Past

Austin5 May 2022 12:06 UTC
54 points
19 comments5 min readEA link

Longter­mism, aliens, AI

dotsam8 May 2022 17:46 UTC
24 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Longter­mist slo­gans that need to be retired

Michael_Wiebe9 May 2022 1:07 UTC
5 points
21 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] How would you draw the Venn di­a­gram of longter­mism and neart­er­mism?

Michael_Wiebe25 May 2022 4:34 UTC
8 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Fu­ture Mat­ters #2: Clue­less skep­ti­cism, ‘longter­mist’ as an iden­tity, and nan­otech­nol­ogy strat­egy research

Pablo28 May 2022 6:25 UTC
51 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

Con­test: 250€ for trans­la­tion of “longter­mism” to German

Konstantin Pilz1 Jun 2022 19:59 UTC
17 points
30 comments1 min readEA link

Ger­mans’ Opinions on Trans­la­tions of “longter­mism”: Sur­vey Results

Konstantin Pilz27 Jun 2022 15:46 UTC
49 points
13 comments5 min readEA link

Kurzge­sagt—The Last Hu­man (Longter­mist video)

Lizka28 Jun 2022 20:16 UTC
147 points
18 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

My Most Likely Rea­son to Die Young is AI X-Risk

AISafetyIsNotLongtermist4 Jul 2022 15:34 UTC
221 points
62 comments4 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

8 In­sights From Our Longter­mism Dis­cus­sion Group

emwalz28 Jul 2022 17:07 UTC
11 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[link post] The Case for Longter­mism in The New York Times

abierohrig5 Aug 2022 16:27 UTC
131 points
14 comments1 min readEA link
(www.nytimes.com)

[BBC Fu­ture] What is longter­mism and why does it mat­ter?

Luke Freeman8 Aug 2022 7:34 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.bbc.com)

Fu­ture Mat­ters #4: AI timelines, AGI risk, and ex­is­ten­tial risk from cli­mate change

Pablo8 Aug 2022 11:00 UTC
57 points
0 comments17 min readEA link

Causal di­a­grams of the paths to ex­is­ten­tial catastrophe

MichaelA1 Mar 2020 14:08 UTC
48 points
14 comments13 min readEA link

Quotes about the long reflection

MichaelA5 Mar 2020 7:48 UTC
53 points
13 comments13 min readEA link

[Link and com­men­tary] Beyond Near- and Long-Term: Towards a Clearer Ac­count of Re­search Pri­ori­ties in AI Ethics and Society

MichaelA14 Mar 2020 9:04 UTC
17 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

[Question] Will the coro­n­avirus pan­demic ad­vance or hin­der the spread of longter­mist-style val­ues/​think­ing?

MichaelA19 Mar 2020 6:07 UTC
12 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Differ­en­tial progress /​ in­tel­lec­tual progress /​ tech­nolog­i­cal development

MichaelA24 Apr 2020 14:08 UTC
35 points
16 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial risks are not just about humanity

MichaelA28 Apr 2020 0:09 UTC
33 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Some thoughts on Toby Ord’s ex­is­ten­tial risk estimates

MichaelA7 Apr 2020 2:19 UTC
66 points
33 comments9 min readEA link

[Question] What are some re­sources to learn how Tech­nol­ogy af­fects longter­mism in Poli­cy­mak­ing?

Venkatesh12 Jun 2020 14:50 UTC
3 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Model­ing the Hu­man Tra­jec­tory (Open Philan­thropy)

Aaron Gertler16 Jun 2020 9:27 UTC
50 points
4 comments2 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Long-term in­vest­ment fund at Founders Pledge

SjirH10 Jan 2020 19:09 UTC
139 points
28 comments3 min readEA link

[Question] For those work­ing on longter­mist pro­jects, how do you stay mo­ti­vated in the short-term?

warrenjordan8 Aug 2020 19:21 UTC
13 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is ex­is­ten­tial risk more press­ing than other ways to im­prove the long-term fu­ture?

BrownHairedEevee20 Aug 2020 3:50 UTC
23 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

“Why Na­tions Fail” and the long-ter­mist view of global poverty

Ben_Kuhn16 Jul 2019 7:59 UTC
140 points
20 comments13 min readEA link
(www.benkuhn.net)

Re­ward­ing pri­vate pro­vi­sion of pub­lic goods

VictorSintNicolaas24 Oct 2020 10:00 UTC
36 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

The Case for Space: A Longter­mist Alter­na­tive to Ex­is­ten­tial Threat Reduction

Giga18 Nov 2020 13:09 UTC
8 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Dy­lan Matthews: The case for car­ing about the year 3000

Pablo18 Dec 2019 1:07 UTC
27 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

A rel­a­tively athe­o­ret­i­cal per­spec­tive on as­tro­nom­i­cal waste

Nick_Beckstead6 Aug 2014 0:55 UTC
9 points
8 commentsEA link

The ‘far fu­ture’ is not just the far future

David_Kristoffersson16 Jan 2020 15:30 UTC
30 points
8 comments3 min readEA link

New in­fo­graphic based on “The Precipice”. any feed­back?

michael.andregg14 Jan 2021 7:29 UTC
48 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

In­com­pat­i­bil­ity of moral re­al­ism and time discounting

wuschel12 Dec 2020 18:47 UTC
16 points
6 comments8 min readEA link

A case against strong longtermism

vadmas15 Dec 2020 20:56 UTC
54 points
82 comments1 min readEA link

Longter­mism which doesn’t care about Ex­tinc­tion—Im­pli­ca­tions of Be­natar’s asym­me­try be­tween pain and pleasure

jushy19 Dec 2020 12:31 UTC
17 points
11 comments1 min readEA link

Strong Longter­mism, Ir­refutabil­ity, and Mo­ral Progress

ben_chugg26 Dec 2020 19:44 UTC
53 points
100 comments10 min readEA link

Le­gal Pri­ori­ties Re­search: A Re­search Agenda

jonasschuett6 Jan 2021 21:47 UTC
58 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

What I be­lieve, part 1: Utili­tar­i­anism | Sunyshore

BrownHairedEevee10 Jan 2021 17:58 UTC
10 points
1 comment4 min readEA link
(sunyshore.substack.com)

Is GDP the right met­ric?

Lars Mennen20 Jan 2021 10:20 UTC
15 points
8 comments5 min readEA link
(larsmennen.me)

[Pod­cast] Ajeya Co­tra on wor­ld­view di­ver­sifi­ca­tion and how big the fu­ture could be

BrownHairedEevee22 Jan 2021 23:57 UTC
57 points
20 comments1 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

[Question] Should pa­tient in­vestors try to cor­re­late port­fo­lio hold­ings with po­ten­tial cause ar­eas?

shepardspie31 Jan 2021 22:11 UTC
20 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Prov­ing too much: A re­sponse to the EA forum

vadmas15 Feb 2021 19:00 UTC
24 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

What is the ar­gu­ment against a Thanos-ing all hu­man­ity to save the lives of other sen­tient be­ings?

somethoughts7 Mar 2021 8:02 UTC
0 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

How tractable is clue­less­ness?

Milan_Griffes29 Dec 2017 18:52 UTC
16 points
2 commentsEA link

Do­ing good while clueless

Milan_Griffes15 Feb 2018 5:04 UTC
46 points
8 commentsEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial risk as com­mon cause

Gavin5 Dec 2018 14:01 UTC
45 points
22 commentsEA link

[Question] Name for the larger EA+ad­ja­cent ecosys­tem?

RyanCarey18 Mar 2021 14:21 UTC
28 points
22 comments1 min readEA link

As­sump­tions about the far fu­ture and cause priority

Jc_Mourrat13 Nov 2019 20:06 UTC
45 points
30 comments21 min readEA link

Hay­den Wilk­in­son: Do­ing good in an in­finite, chaotic world

EA Global18 Feb 2020 23:29 UTC
33 points
1 comment18 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

[Question] How should longter­mists think about eat­ing meat?

berglund16 May 2020 20:21 UTC
19 points
29 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] What would a pre-mortem for the long-ter­mist pro­ject look like?

Azure11 Apr 2020 14:51 UTC
18 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: A Prob­lem for Long-Ter­mism?

kokotajlod8 Nov 2018 10:09 UTC
24 points
17 commentsEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: De­fus­ing the Ini­tial Worry and Steel­man­ning the Problem

kokotajlod10 Nov 2018 9:12 UTC
27 points
10 commentsEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: Solutions

kokotajlod14 Nov 2018 16:04 UTC
20 points
5 commentsEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: Con­clud­ing Arguments

kokotajlod15 Nov 2018 21:47 UTC
25 points
5 comments10 min readEA link

Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities of Vast Utilities: Bibliog­ra­phy and Appendix

kokotajlod20 Nov 2018 17:34 UTC
10 points
0 comments24 min readEA link

Every­day longter­mism in practice

JohnsonRamsaur6 Apr 2021 14:42 UTC
18 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

Ben Grodeck: Co­op­er­at­ing with fu­ture gen­er­a­tions — an ex­per­i­men­tal investigation

EA Global21 Feb 2020 15:28 UTC
16 points
0 comments14 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

[Link] Mo­ral In­ter­lude from “The Wizard and the Prophet”

Milan_Griffes27 Sep 2019 18:42 UTC
13 points
8 comments8 min readEA link

The NPT: Learn­ing from a Longter­mist Suc­cess [Links!]

DannyBressler20 May 2021 0:39 UTC
66 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

The Mo­ral Value of the Far Future

Holden Karnofsky3 Jul 2014 12:43 UTC
2 points
0 comments8 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

The Multi-Class Op­ti­mizer’s Curse

FeelingSentient4 Jul 2021 12:04 UTC
20 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

The Fu­ture of Hu­man­ity & The Meth­ods of Ethics: A dis­cus­sion of Bostrom, Sidg­wick and Scheffler (Thurs­day 22 July, 6:30pm UK)

peterhartree18 Jul 2021 18:58 UTC
23 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Tay­lor Swift’s “long story short” Is Ac­tu­ally About Effec­tive Altru­ism and Longter­mism (PARODY)

shepardspie23 Jul 2021 13:25 UTC
34 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

[3-hour pod­cast]: Joseph Car­l­smith on longter­mism, utopia, the com­pu­ta­tional power of the brain, meta-ethics, illu­sion­ism and meditation

Gus Docker27 Jul 2021 13:18 UTC
34 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

New Global Pri­ori­ties In­sti­tute work­ing pa­pers—and an up­dated ver­sion of “The case for strong longter­mism”

Global Priorities Institute9 Aug 2021 16:57 UTC
46 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Some longter­mist fiction

Ben10 Aug 2021 10:59 UTC
28 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

Fore­sight for Govern­ments: Sin­ga­pore’s Long-ter­mist Policy Tools & Les­sons

nym14 Aug 2021 12:29 UTC
44 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

What we learned from a year in­cu­bat­ing longter­mist entrepreneurship

Rebecca Kagan30 Aug 2021 8:39 UTC
189 points
27 comments18 min readEA link

The scope of longtermism

Global Priorities Institute31 May 2021 13:25 UTC
4 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Eco­nomic in­equal­ity and the long-term future

Global Priorities Institute30 Apr 2021 13:26 UTC
11 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Tough enough? Ro­bust satis­fic­ing as a de­ci­sion norm for long-term policy analysis

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2020 13:28 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Non-ad­di­tive ax­iolo­gies in large worlds

Global Priorities Institute31 Aug 2020 13:30 UTC
11 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

In­ter­gen­er­a­tional equity un­der catas­trophic cli­mate change

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2017 13:33 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Heuris­tics for clue­less agents: how to get away with ig­nor­ing what mat­ters most in or­di­nary de­ci­sion-making

Global Priorities Institute31 May 2020 13:35 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

[Link post] Sam Scheffler: Con­ser­vatism, Tem­po­ral Bias, and Fu­ture Generations

peterhartree19 Sep 2021 8:44 UTC
44 points
3 comments24 min readEA link

Stak­ing our fu­ture: de­on­tic longter­mism and the non-iden­tity problem

Global Priorities Institute31 Aug 2019 13:38 UTC
3 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism

Global Priorities Institute30 Apr 2020 13:38 UTC
5 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

‘The only eth­i­cal ar­gu­ment for pos­i­tive δ’?

Global Priorities Institute30 Sep 2019 13:40 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Holden Karnofsky on the most im­por­tant century

80000_Hours19 Aug 2021 15:17 UTC
6 points
1 comment117 min readEA link

Dooms­day rings twice

Global Priorities Institute31 Aug 2019 13:54 UTC
3 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Holden Karnofsky on build­ing ap­ti­tudes and kick­ing ass

80000_Hours23 Sep 2021 16:55 UTC
10 points
0 comments137 min readEA link

Seek­ing so­cial sci­ence stu­dents /​ col­lab­o­ra­tors in­ter­ested in AI ex­is­ten­tial risks

Vael Gates24 Sep 2021 21:56 UTC
58 points
7 comments3 min readEA link

Key char­ac­ter­is­tics for eval­u­at­ing fu­ture global gov­er­nance institutions

Juan Gil4 Oct 2021 19:44 UTC
23 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

Carl Shul­man on the com­mon-sense case for ex­is­ten­tial risk work and its prac­ti­cal implications

80000_Hours8 Oct 2021 13:43 UTC
41 points
2 comments149 min readEA link

New Work­ing Paper Series of the Le­gal Pri­ori­ties Project

Legal Priorities Project18 Oct 2021 10:30 UTC
60 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Pa­tient Philan­thropy Fund

SjirH27 Oct 2021 15:44 UTC
128 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

The Toba Su­per­vol­canic Eruption

Jackson Wagner29 Oct 2021 17:02 UTC
44 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Cul­tural and In­sti­tu­tional Change are Needed, Over the Long Run

DestinieAShira30 Oct 2021 18:57 UTC
1 point
0 comments6 min readEA link
(shiradest.wordpress.com)

The case for long-term cor­po­rate gov­er­nance of AI

SethBaum3 Nov 2021 10:50 UTC
37 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

HIRING: In­form and shape a new pro­ject on AI safety at Part­ner­ship on AI

Madhulika Srikumar24 Nov 2021 16:29 UTC
11 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Read­ing Group: The Good Ancestor

Alex Berezhnoi1 Dec 2021 12:02 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

A Gen­tle In­tro­duc­tion to Long-Term Thinking

Jack Cunningham8 Dec 2021 3:21 UTC
5 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

What are the best (brief) re­sources to in­tro­duce EA & longter­mism?

Akash19 Dec 2021 21:16 UTC
5 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Field-spe­cific LE (Longterm En­trepreneur­ship)

Jonas Hallgren22 Dec 2021 22:58 UTC
28 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Con­ver­gence the­sis be­tween longter­mism and neartermism

weeatquince30 Dec 2021 16:03 UTC
100 points
32 comments9 min readEA link

Longter­mism VS Neart­er­mism: Are we be­ing long-winded or short-sighted?

Prof.Weird4 Feb 2022 9:08 UTC
−2 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What are some heuris­tics for longter­mist pro­ject eval­u­a­tion?

Aman Patel7 Feb 2022 5:55 UTC
13 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

The value of small dona­tions from a longter­mist perspective

Michael Townsend25 Feb 2022 16:42 UTC
95 points
15 comments19 min readEA link
(www.givingwhatwecan.org)

In­tro­duc­tory video on safe­guard­ing the long-term future

JulianHazell7 Mar 2022 12:52 UTC
23 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

We’re an­nounc­ing a $100,000 blog prize

Nick Whitaker7 Mar 2022 19:44 UTC
127 points
57 comments2 min readEA link

Mis­sion-cor­re­lated in­vest­ing: Ex­am­ples of mis­sion hedg­ing and ‘lev­er­ag­ing’

jh11 Mar 2022 9:33 UTC
19 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

How the Ukraine con­flict may in­fluence spend­ing on longter­mist pro­jects

Frank_R16 Mar 2022 8:15 UTC
23 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

About the Ne­glect­ed­ness of Longter­mism and Fu­ture Work

Erich_Grunewald19 Mar 2022 10:37 UTC
6 points
0 comments7 min readEA link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

[Question] Short term feed­back, long term con­se­quences?

David Mears25 Mar 2022 18:57 UTC
3 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

The Sin­gu­lar­ity and Its Me­ta­phys­i­cal Implications

Tomer_Goloboy28 Mar 2022 0:18 UTC
12 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

A Primer on God, Liber­al­ism and the End of History

Mahdi Complex28 Mar 2022 5:26 UTC
7 points
3 comments14 min readEA link

Reflect on Your Ca­reer Ap­ti­tudes (Ex­er­cise)

Akash10 Apr 2022 2:40 UTC
12 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

The Ber­lin Hub: Longter­mist co-liv­ing space (plan)

Severin T. Seehrich10 Apr 2022 20:26 UTC
80 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Sum­mary: Ev­i­dence, clue­less­ness and the long term | Hilary Greaves

Vasco Grilo15 Apr 2022 17:22 UTC
4 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Can we agree on a bet­ter name than ‘near-ter­mist’? “Not-longer­mist”? “Not-full-longter­mist”?

david_reinstein19 Apr 2022 16:09 UTC
74 points
44 comments2 min readEA link

How much cur­rent an­i­mal suffer­ing does longter­mism let us ig­nore?

Jacob Eliosoff21 Apr 2022 9:10 UTC
63 points
50 comments6 min readEA link

Which Post Idea Is Most Effec­tive?

Jordan Arel25 Apr 2022 4:47 UTC
26 points
6 comments2 min readEA link

Paper sum­mary: The case for strong longter­mism (Hilary Greaves and William MacAskill)

Global Priorities Institute29 Apr 2022 15:52 UTC
43 points
27 comments4 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Rab­bits, robots and resurrection

Patrick Wilson10 May 2022 15:00 UTC
8 points
0 comments15 min readEA link

Is Our Uni­verse A New­comb’s Para­dox Si­mu­la­tion?

Jordan Arel15 May 2022 7:28 UTC
15 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

BERI is seek­ing new col­lab­o­ra­tors (2022)

sawyer17 May 2022 17:31 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

The case to abol­ish the biol­ogy of suffer­ing as a longter­mist action

Gaetan_Selle21 May 2022 8:51 UTC
32 points
8 comments4 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Towards Ineffec­tive Altruism

Caleb Biddulph23 May 2022 6:34 UTC
13 points
8 comments1 min readEA link

St. Peters­burg De­mon – a thought ex­per­i­ment that makes me doubt Longter­mism

wuschel23 May 2022 11:49 UTC
48 points
41 comments2 min readEA link

Baby Cause Areas, Ex­is­ten­tial Risk, and Longtermism

Davidmanheim25 May 2022 13:13 UTC
59 points
7 comments5 min readEA link

Paper sum­mary: Stak­ing our fu­ture: de­on­tic long-ter­mism and the non-iden­tity prob­lem (An­dreas Mo­gensen)

Global Priorities Institute7 Jun 2022 13:14 UTC
25 points
6 comments6 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

‘Force mul­ti­pli­ers’ for EA research

Craig Drayton18 Jun 2022 13:39 UTC
18 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Against Longter­mism: I wel­come our robot over­lords, and you should too!

MattBall2 Jul 2022 2:05 UTC
0 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Strong Longter­mism and Dobbs v. Jackson

eaforumthrowaway199430 Jun 2022 6:37 UTC
9 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

An epistemic cri­tique of longtermism

Nathan_Barnard10 Jul 2022 10:59 UTC
11 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

Fu­ture De­sign: How To In­clude Fu­ture Gen­er­a­tions in To­day’s De­ci­sion-Mak­ing?

simeon_c12 Jul 2022 21:53 UTC
13 points
1 comment6 min readEA link

Red team­ing a model for es­ti­mat­ing the value of longter­mist in­ter­ven­tions—A cri­tique of Tarsney’s “The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism”

Anjay F16 Jul 2022 19:05 UTC
21 points
0 comments30 min readEA link

[Question] In one hour, how could one donor com­pare the benefit of one marginal USD from 1921 to pro­tect civ­i­liza­tion in 2021?

ethankennerly17 Jul 2022 1:11 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Paper sum­mary: A Para­dox for Tiny Prob­a­bil­ities and Enor­mous Values (Nick Beck­stead and Teruji Thomas)

Global Priorities Institute21 Jul 2022 15:23 UTC
42 points
7 comments7 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

In­still­ing Cul­tural Longtermism

Demosthenes22 Jul 2022 19:25 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing “Cli­mate Change and the Long-term Fu­ture”

LuisEUrtubey23 Jul 2022 0:12 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

The Most Im­por­tant Cen­tury: The Animation

Writer24 Jul 2022 22:34 UTC
50 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(youtu.be)

Low-key Longtermism

Jonathan Rystrom25 Jul 2022 13:39 UTC
23 points
6 comments8 min readEA link

More to ex­plore on ‘What could the fu­ture hold? And why care?’

EA Handbook7 Jul 2022 23:00 UTC
1 point
0 comments1 min readEA link

Con­cerns/​Thoughts over in­ter­na­tional aid, longter­mism and philo­soph­i­cal notes on speak­ing with Larry Temkin.

Ben Yeoh27 Jul 2022 19:51 UTC
29 points
0 comments12 min readEA link

In­vite: UnCon­fer­ence, How best for hu­mans to thrive and sur­vive over the long-term

Ben Yeoh27 Jul 2022 22:19 UTC
7 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Why this isn’t the “most im­por­tant cen­tury”

Arjun Khemani27 Jul 2022 15:27 UTC
1 point
2 comments5 min readEA link
(arjunkhemani.com)

Longter­mism as Effec­tive Altruism

Michael_Wiebe29 Jul 2022 0:56 UTC
7 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Longter­mism, risk, and extinction

Richard Pettigrew4 Aug 2022 15:25 UTC
20 points
7 comments41 min readEA link

How I Came To Longter­mism On My Own & An Out­sider Per­spec­tive On EA Longtermism

Jordan Arel7 Aug 2022 2:42 UTC
26 points
2 comments20 min readEA link

Longter­mists Should Work on AI—There is No “AI Neu­tral” Sce­nario

simeon_c7 Aug 2022 16:43 UTC
35 points
59 comments6 min readEA link

Pro­posed tweak to the longter­mism pitch

TheOtherHannah8 Aug 2022 6:29 UTC
10 points
6 comments4 min readEA link

Sav­ing Chick­ens, Sav­ing Humanity

blake8 Aug 2022 16:26 UTC
7 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.linkedin.com)

An open let­ter to my great grand kids’ great grand kids

Locke10 Aug 2022 15:07 UTC
1 point
0 comments13 min readEA link

ISYP Third Nu­clear Age Con­fer­ence New Age, New Think­ing: Challenges of a Third Nu­clear Age 31 Oc­to­ber-2 Novem­ber 2022, in Ber­lin, Ger­many

Daniel Ajudeonu11 Aug 2022 8:32 UTC
1 point
0 comments5 min readEA link