I found the cultivated meat one a little surprising so made a market:
Thanks!
You thought it was too low or to high?
Too high. I thought there were huge scaling barriers based on something Linch wrote ~2 years ago. Maybe that’s wrong or been retracted.
I think that’s generally the picture I had, but I put some decent chance on people overcoming those kinds of barriers.
See e.g. https://scitechdaily.com/breakthrough-could-reduce-cultivated-meat-production-costs-by-up-to-90/ which seems in the category ‘huge if true/generalisable’
Cultured meat might not have to progress that far too be a novelty item at many high end restaurants. I don’t think this would mean it would necessarily have made any significant penetration or impact on the overall meat market.
I found the cultivated meat one a little surprising so made a market:
Thanks!
You thought it was too low or to high?
Too high. I thought there were huge scaling barriers based on something Linch wrote ~2 years ago. Maybe that’s wrong or been retracted.
I think that’s generally the picture I had, but I put some decent chance on people overcoming those kinds of barriers.
See e.g. https://scitechdaily.com/breakthrough-could-reduce-cultivated-meat-production-costs-by-up-to-90/ which seems in the category ‘huge if true/generalisable’
Cultured meat might not have to progress that far too be a novelty item at many high end restaurants. I don’t think this would mean it would necessarily have made any significant penetration or impact on the overall meat market.