In most worlds where AI disempowers humanity, the human species continues
Do you mean most likely worlds? The difference seems incredibly important—there are, in my view, quite compelling arguments that the most likely outcome given disempowerment is human extinction, but of course I can imagine worlds in which that doens’t happen.
Anything like 35% death rate seems implausible to me if I think through the mechanics of a takeover, both <5% and >95% seem more plausible to me, including in very violent takeovers.
Do you mean most likely worlds? The difference seems incredibly important—there are, in my view, quite compelling arguments that the most likely outcome given disempowerment is human extinction, but of course I can imagine worlds in which that doens’t happen.
I mostly agree with this though I think there’s more extremization[1]: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4fqwBmmqi2ZGn9o7j/notes-on-fatalities-from-ai-takeover
Anything like 35% death rate seems implausible to me if I think through the mechanics of a takeover, both <5% and >95% seem more plausible to me, including in very violent takeovers.
I mean, conditional on human disempowerment, >50% that the human species continues till after 2100. Maybe I’m at 80% or more on this.