A different BOTEC: 500k deaths per year, at $5000 per death prevented by bednets, we’d have to get a year of vaccine speedup for $2.5 billion to match bednets.
I agree that $2.5 billion to speed up development of vaccines by a year is tricky. But I expect that $2.5 billion, or $250 million, or perhaps even $25 million to speed up deployment of vaccines by a year is pretty plausible. I don’t know the details but apparently a vaccine was approved in 2021 that will only be rolled out widely in a few months, and another vaccine will be delayed until mid-2024: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/what-is-an-emergency-the-case-of-rapid-malaria-vaccination.html
So I think it’s less a question of whether EA could have piled more money on and more a question of whether EA could have used that money + our talent advantage to target key bottlenecks.
(Plus the possibility of getting gene drives done much earlier, but I don’t know how to estimate that.)
@Linch, see the article I linked above, which identifies a bunch of specific bottlenecks where lobbying and/or targeted funding could have been really useful. I didn’t know about these when I wrote my comment above, but I claim prediction points for having a high-level heuristic that led to the right conclusion anyway.
Do you want to discuss this in a higher-bandwidth channel at some point? Eg next time we’re in an EA social or something, have an organized chat with a moderator and access to a shared monitor? I feel like we’re not engaging with each other’s arguments as much in this setting, but we can maybe clarify things better in a higher-bandwidth setting.
(No worries if you don’t want to do it; it’s not like global health is either of our day jobs)
A different BOTEC: 500k deaths per year, at $5000 per death prevented by bednets, we’d have to get a year of vaccine speedup for $2.5 billion to match bednets.
I agree that $2.5 billion to speed up development of vaccines by a year is tricky. But I expect that $2.5 billion, or $250 million, or perhaps even $25 million to speed up deployment of vaccines by a year is pretty plausible. I don’t know the details but apparently a vaccine was approved in 2021 that will only be rolled out widely in a few months, and another vaccine will be delayed until mid-2024: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/10/what-is-an-emergency-the-case-of-rapid-malaria-vaccination.html
So I think it’s less a question of whether EA could have piled more money on and more a question of whether EA could have used that money + our talent advantage to target key bottlenecks.
(Plus the possibility of getting gene drives done much earlier, but I don’t know how to estimate that.)
@Linch, see the article I linked above, which identifies a bunch of specific bottlenecks where lobbying and/or targeted funding could have been really useful. I didn’t know about these when I wrote my comment above, but I claim prediction points for having a high-level heuristic that led to the right conclusion anyway.
Do you want to discuss this in a higher-bandwidth channel at some point? Eg next time we’re in an EA social or something, have an organized chat with a moderator and access to a shared monitor? I feel like we’re not engaging with each other’s arguments as much in this setting, but we can maybe clarify things better in a higher-bandwidth setting.
(No worries if you don’t want to do it; it’s not like global health is either of our day jobs)