My overall objection/argument is that you appear to selectively portray data points that show one side, and selectively dismiss data points that show the opposite view. This makes your bottom-line conclusion pretty suspicious.
I also think the rationalist community overreached and their epistemics and speed in early COVID were worse compared to, say, internet people, government officials, and perhaps even the general public in Taiwan. But I don’t think the case for them being slower than Western officials or the general public in either the US or Europe is credible, and your evidence here does not update me much.
Thanks, I find the polls to be much stronger evidence than the other things you’ve said.