Hey Anthony, a quick question (I might comment more later)
”In short, while Uganda as a country is the very last in Sub Saharan Africa in terms of poverty reduction, our region Busoga is the worst in Uganda, and even in Busoga, our 2 twin districts Kamuli & Buyende, being the remotest, are simply the most miserable.”
Any poverty scale of Uganda will show the Karamoja region being the poorest—I’m not saying Kamuli and Buyende are doing well, but any scale will show the region of Karamoja being far poorer than Busoga, with at least 10 districts of Karamoja faring far worse, an often other Northern Districts faring worse than Kamuli and Buyende as well. Could you show me a poverty rating that rates Busoga as the poorest region or Kamuli and Buyende as among the poorest districts in Uganda?
Hi Nick, thanks so much for this. Until 2013, northern Uganda was the poorest region in Uganda, and until 2016, Karamoja, a sub-region of northern Uganda, was the poorest not just in northern Uganda, but in Uganda overall. A few details:
1) From 2013 to date, the poorest region in Uganda has been eastern Uganda. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) says in this 2019 report that “the poorest region in the country had always been the northern region until 2013, but it is now the eastern region”.
A 2023 report by the World Bank also put the poverty rate in eastern Uganda and northern Uganda at 42% and 40% respectively.
2). However, even after eastern Uganda became the poorest in Uganda (in 2013), Karamoja (in northern Uganda) remained the poorest sub-region in Uganda overall, but only until ~2016.
When Karamoja was still regarded the poorest sub-region in Uganda, its poverty rate was 74% (as a share of regional poverty, not nationally), and it still is 74% even today.
3). But the National Household Survey (by UBOS) both in 2016/2017 and 2021/2022 said Busoga has now overtaken Karamoja—and is currently the poorest region in Uganda—with a poverty rate of 14% (as a share of national poverty), and 74.8% within Busoga itself.
4) Here is a 2019 publicationby The Monitor referencing the UBOS 2016/2017 National Household Survey and placing Busoga’s poverty rate at 74.8%.
5) The New Vision in 2022 also said Busoga is currently “the poorest region in the country”.
6). The Monitor in 2021 said “the sub-region (Busoga) still contributes the largest percentage of poor people in the country”.
7). In 2023, The Monitor, referencing UBOS’ 2021/2022 National Household Survey, also wrote: “Busoga is the sub-region with most people living in a complete poverty cycle followed by Bukedea and Karamoja. This is according to findings released in 2021/2022 by Mr Vincent Fred Senono, the Principal Statistician and head of analysis at the Uganda National Bureau of Statistics“.
8). Incidentally, in UBOS’s 2019/2020 National Household Survey, Karamoja DIDN’T even feature in the first three regions with the highest percentage of poor people nationally. The first was Busoga (14%) followed by Bukedi (10.4%) and Acholi (10.3%) See details on page 101 of UBOS’s 2019 National Household Survey here (PDF).
I think the confusion is coming in terms of number of people vs. percentage. A couple of those news articles were confused at the meaning of some of the statistics. Uganda news sources are notoriously unreliable when reporting statistics. That watchdog article for example completely misrepresents the statistics.
The karamoja region has a low overall population but far higher extreme poverty rates than busogoa in all the surveys you shared. That would make most people consider it the poorest region. I don’t think you’d find any serious statistician who would consider busoga to be “poorer” or to have a higher poverty rate than places like karamoja. I’m not sure if you’ve been to karamoja, but the free yours i have been there it really shocked me as the level of poverty really seems on a different level from other places.
The population of busoga is high, so it has the highest raw number of poor people in the country, while poverty rates as a percentage are lower than some other regions. I think that’s what caused some of the confusion here.
This isn’t too say busoga doesn’t have a lot of poverty, it remains one of the poorest areas of the country and that point of yours still stands correct.
I think it’s important though to be super careful how we frame our statistics so we don’t exaggerate, which can help built trust in our argument in general.
You said: “I don’t think you’d find any serious statistician who would consider busoga to be “poorer” or to have a higher poverty rate than places like karamoja”.
Here is what you need to know:
The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) is Uganda government’s official statistics agency. They are staffed with the best statisticians Uganda can find, and in publishing their reports, they do so in collaboration with local teams from agencies like Makerere University, the World Bank, UNDP, and all the global antipoverty agencies operating locally in Uganda.
Here is UBOS speaking live on NTV (one of Uganda’s major TV channels) two years ago, pointing out clearly that “Busoga region has the highest levels of poverty.”
In that report, Karamoja and Bukedi are also mentioned towards the end of the video, but the report EXPLICITLY mentions that Busoga leads with 14.5%, followed by Bukedi, and Acholi.
There is totally no “confusion” between the actual numbers of people living in poverty in Busoga and Karamoja, versus the poverty rates (in %) of the two regions. The people publishing these reports can differentiate between the two.
As regards Uganda’s lcoal media outlets being unable to interpret figures, what I can say is: The New Vision (Uganda government’s official newspaper), and The Monitor, are Uganda’s two biggest media outlets. Every single news story they have published in the last few years has EXPLICITLY said Busoga is currently the poorest region in Uganda, and their reports come from press conferences with the concerned people (e.g. UBOS), as seen in the above video.
You also said “it’s important though to be super careful how we frame our statistics so we don’t exaggerate, which can help built trust in our argument in general.” All I can say is: if anyone is exaggerating the poverty in Busoga (vs that in Karamoja), it isn’t me.
You also asked if I have ever been to Karamoja. Here, I think you are trying to suggest that we put aside the officially reported figures and instead judge the two regions with our eyes/opinions.
In that case, I believe the reason you are saying Karamoja is far poorer than Busoga (when judged from our eyes, rather than with official stats) is because:
a) Busoga has a somewhat greener environment, while Karamoja is mostly semi-arid.
b) local people’s culture, i.e., the fact that people in Karamoja, whether they are a bit better off or not, mostly sleep in sketchy huts because of their nomadic pastoralism (while people in Busoga have slightly better housing);
c) the fact that people in Karamoja, whether they are a bit better off or not, mostly wear wrappers rather than full clothes, while people in Busoga wear full clothes even if they are very poor.
d) the fact that Busoga hosts Uganda’s most popular tourist city, Jinja, which city only acts as the door to Busoga’s crippling poverty—the moment you dare to venture into Busoga’s remote countryside, like my village of Namisita, where most households can’t even afford soap and salt.
I really don’t know what you are basing on to underestimate the conditions local people here are living in. And I know you are a New Zealander (or so) who has been in northern Uganda for a few years. But Nick, leave local circumstances to those of us who have a firsthand grasp of them.
I’ve changed my mind a bit. I think you’re right you aren’t trying to exaggerate the stats—UBOS is the problem here more than the media or anyone else. I’m now going to have to consider UBOS statisticians non-serious, which is quite problematic (I might even write a post about this given how terrible their work has been here). Thanks for sending me that video—others should watch it too so you can see what I mean. It blew my mind that the “statisticians” who as you say should be the best in the country, appear not to understand their own survey.
They srart with this bizarre statement
“The proportion of people who are poor increases from 8 million to 8.3 million people”
Then it gets worse from there...
UBOS makes at least 3 completely false statements in that video, compared to their official report.
To reiterate one more time, the UBOS report states extreme poverty rates in one part of the report in 2019/2020 at 66.7% in Acholi, 65.7% in Karamoja, and 29.4% in Busoga. Because the population in Busoga is so much higher than either Acholi or Karamoja (more than double the population), the Busoga region has the highest total number of extremely poor people of any region in the country, which is where the confusion comes in. So Busoga region itself is less poor than other parts of Uganda, even though it has a higher total number of poor people—not the easiest thing to understand.
I just want to chime in to say how lovely it is to see a disagreement on the internet that doesn’t degrade. It was very nice to read each of you describe what you believe to be true, cite sources, explain reasoning without exaggerations or ad hominems, consider context and hypothesize about possibilities, and move a step closer to ‘truth.’ Bravo.
Hey Anthony, a quick question (I might comment more later)
”In short, while Uganda as a country is the very last in Sub Saharan Africa in terms of poverty reduction, our region Busoga is the worst in Uganda, and even in Busoga, our 2 twin districts Kamuli & Buyende, being the remotest, are simply the most miserable.”
Any poverty scale of Uganda will show the Karamoja region being the poorest—I’m not saying Kamuli and Buyende are doing well, but any scale will show the region of Karamoja being far poorer than Busoga, with at least 10 districts of Karamoja faring far worse, an often other Northern Districts faring worse than Kamuli and Buyende as well. Could you show me a poverty rating that rates Busoga as the poorest region or Kamuli and Buyende as among the poorest districts in Uganda?
https://devinit.org/resources/poverty-uganda-national-and-regional-data-and-trends/
Hi Nick, thanks so much for this. Until 2013, northern Uganda was the poorest region in Uganda, and until 2016, Karamoja, a sub-region of northern Uganda, was the poorest not just in northern Uganda, but in Uganda overall. A few details:
1) From 2013 to date, the poorest region in Uganda has been eastern Uganda. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) says in this 2019 report that “the poorest region in the country had always been the northern region until 2013, but it is now the eastern region”.
A 2023 report by the World Bank also put the poverty rate in eastern Uganda and northern Uganda at 42% and 40% respectively.
2). However, even after eastern Uganda became the poorest in Uganda (in 2013), Karamoja (in northern Uganda) remained the poorest sub-region in Uganda overall, but only until ~2016.
When Karamoja was still regarded the poorest sub-region in Uganda, its poverty rate was 74% (as a share of regional poverty, not nationally), and it still is 74% even today.
3). But the National Household Survey (by UBOS) both in 2016/2017 and 2021/2022 said Busoga has now overtaken Karamoja—and is currently the poorest region in Uganda—with a poverty rate of 14% (as a share of national poverty), and 74.8% within Busoga itself.
4) Here is a 2019 publicationby The Monitor referencing the UBOS 2016/2017 National Household Survey and placing Busoga’s poverty rate at 74.8%.
5) The New Vision in 2022 also said Busoga is currently “the poorest region in the country”.
6). The Monitor in 2021 said “the sub-region (Busoga) still contributes the largest percentage of poor people in the country”.
7). In 2023, The Monitor, referencing UBOS’ 2021/2022 National Household Survey, also wrote: “Busoga is the sub-region with most people living in a complete poverty cycle followed by Bukedea and Karamoja. This is according to findings released in 2021/2022 by Mr Vincent Fred Senono, the Principal Statistician and head of analysis at the Uganda National Bureau of Statistics“.
8). Incidentally, in UBOS’s 2019/2020 National Household Survey, Karamoja DIDN’T even feature in the first three regions with the highest percentage of poor people nationally. The first was Busoga (14%) followed by Bukedi (10.4%) and Acholi (10.3%) See details on page 101 of UBOS’s 2019 National Household Survey here (PDF).
Thanks Anthony.
I think the confusion is coming in terms of number of people vs. percentage. A couple of those news articles were confused at the meaning of some of the statistics. Uganda news sources are notoriously unreliable when reporting statistics. That watchdog article for example completely misrepresents the statistics.
The karamoja region has a low overall population but far higher extreme poverty rates than busogoa in all the surveys you shared. That would make most people consider it the poorest region. I don’t think you’d find any serious statistician who would consider busoga to be “poorer” or to have a higher poverty rate than places like karamoja. I’m not sure if you’ve been to karamoja, but the free yours i have been there it really shocked me as the level of poverty really seems on a different level from other places.
The population of busoga is high, so it has the highest raw number of poor people in the country, while poverty rates as a percentage are lower than some other regions. I think that’s what caused some of the confusion here.
This isn’t too say busoga doesn’t have a lot of poverty, it remains one of the poorest areas of the country and that point of yours still stands correct.
I think it’s important though to be super careful how we frame our statistics so we don’t exaggerate, which can help built trust in our argument in general.
Thank you Nick.
You said: “I don’t think you’d find any serious statistician who would consider busoga to be “poorer” or to have a higher poverty rate than places like karamoja”.
Here is what you need to know:
The Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) is Uganda government’s official statistics agency. They are staffed with the best statisticians Uganda can find, and in publishing their reports, they do so in collaboration with local teams from agencies like Makerere University, the World Bank, UNDP, and all the global antipoverty agencies operating locally in Uganda.
Here is UBOS speaking live on NTV (one of Uganda’s major TV channels) two years ago, pointing out clearly that “Busoga region has the highest levels of poverty.”
In that report, Karamoja and Bukedi are also mentioned towards the end of the video, but the report EXPLICITLY mentions that Busoga leads with 14.5%, followed by Bukedi, and Acholi.
There is totally no “confusion” between the actual numbers of people living in poverty in Busoga and Karamoja, versus the poverty rates (in %) of the two regions. The people publishing these reports can differentiate between the two.
As regards Uganda’s lcoal media outlets being unable to interpret figures, what I can say is: The New Vision (Uganda government’s official newspaper), and The Monitor, are Uganda’s two biggest media outlets. Every single news story they have published in the last few years has EXPLICITLY said Busoga is currently the poorest region in Uganda, and their reports come from press conferences with the concerned people (e.g. UBOS), as seen in the above video.
You also said “it’s important though to be super careful how we frame our statistics so we don’t exaggerate, which can help built trust in our argument in general.” All I can say is: if anyone is exaggerating the poverty in Busoga (vs that in Karamoja), it isn’t me.
You also asked if I have ever been to Karamoja. Here, I think you are trying to suggest that we put aside the officially reported figures and instead judge the two regions with our eyes/opinions.
In that case, I believe the reason you are saying Karamoja is far poorer than Busoga (when judged from our eyes, rather than with official stats) is because:
a) Busoga has a somewhat greener environment, while Karamoja is mostly semi-arid.
b) local people’s culture, i.e., the fact that people in Karamoja, whether they are a bit better off or not, mostly sleep in sketchy huts because of their nomadic pastoralism (while people in Busoga have slightly better housing);
c) the fact that people in Karamoja, whether they are a bit better off or not, mostly wear wrappers rather than full clothes, while people in Busoga wear full clothes even if they are very poor.
d) the fact that Busoga hosts Uganda’s most popular tourist city, Jinja, which city only acts as the door to Busoga’s crippling poverty—the moment you dare to venture into Busoga’s remote countryside, like my village of Namisita, where most households can’t even afford soap and salt.
I really don’t know what you are basing on to underestimate the conditions local people here are living in. And I know you are a New Zealander (or so) who has been in northern Uganda for a few years. But Nick, leave local circumstances to those of us who have a firsthand grasp of them.
Hey Anthony
I’ve changed my mind a bit. I think you’re right you aren’t trying to exaggerate the stats—UBOS is the problem here more than the media or anyone else. I’m now going to have to consider UBOS statisticians non-serious, which is quite problematic (I might even write a post about this given how terrible their work has been here). Thanks for sending me that video—others should watch it too so you can see what I mean. It blew my mind that the “statisticians” who as you say should be the best in the country, appear not to understand their own survey.
They srart with this bizarre statement
“The proportion of people who are poor increases from 8 million to 8.3 million people”
Then it gets worse from there...
UBOS makes at least 3 completely false statements in that video, compared to their official report.
To reiterate one more time, the UBOS report states extreme poverty rates in one part of the report in 2019/2020 at 66.7% in Acholi, 65.7% in Karamoja, and 29.4% in Busoga. Because the population in Busoga is so much higher than either Acholi or Karamoja (more than double the population), the Busoga region has the highest total number of extremely poor people of any region in the country, which is where the confusion comes in. So Busoga region itself is less poor than other parts of Uganda, even though it has a higher total number of poor people—not the easiest thing to understand.
https://www.ubos.org/wp-content/uploads/publications/06_2021UNHS2019-20_presentation.pdf
I would love to have a chat to discuss this more if you have time today or anther day, I’ll send you a message with my phone number.
Nick
I just want to chime in to say how lovely it is to see a disagreement on the internet that doesn’t degrade. It was very nice to read each of you describe what you believe to be true, cite sources, explain reasoning without exaggerations or ad hominems, consider context and hypothesize about possibilities, and move a step closer to ‘truth.’ Bravo.
Thanks too Joseph, for appreciating this. Anthony.