RSS

Arb

TagLast edit: Oct 11, 2022, 2:43 PM by technicalities

Arb is a research consultancy that conducts original research, evidence reviews, and large-scale data pipelines primarily in forecasting, artificial intelligence, and pandemic preparedness.

History

Arb was founded in 2021 by Misha Yagudin and Gavin Leech.

Further reading

Karnofsky, Holden (2022) The track record of futurists seems … fine, Cold Takes, June 30.

Leech, Gavin (2022) Comparing top forecasters and domain experts, Effective Altruism Forum, March 6.

External links

Arb. Official website.

Arb. Effective Altruism Forum account.

Apply for a job.

Related entries

consultancy | forecasting

Im­pact Assess­ment of AI Safety Camp (Arb Re­search)

Sam HoltonJan 23, 2024, 4:32 PM
87 points
23 comments11 min readEA link

[Linkpost] Dan Luu: Fu­tur­ist pre­dic­tion meth­ods and accuracy

LinchSep 15, 2022, 9:20 PM
64 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(danluu.com)

We can do bet­ter than argmax

Jan_KulveitOct 10, 2022, 10:32 AM
113 points
36 comments10 min readEA link

Ex­per­i­men­tal longter­mism: the­ory needs data

Jan_KulveitMar 15, 2022, 10:05 AM
186 points
9 comments4 min readEA link

The Track Record of Fu­tur­ists Seems … Fine

Holden KarnofskyJul 4, 2022, 3:47 PM
67 points
2 comments12 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

What I learned from the crit­i­cism contest

technicalitiesOct 1, 2022, 1:39 PM
171 points
32 comments6 min readEA link

Ques­tions about and Ob­jec­tions to ‘Shar­ing the World with Digi­tal Minds’ (2020)

David Mathers🔸Oct 7, 2022, 1:36 PM
36 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Sum­mary of ‘Shar­ing the World With Digi­tal Minds’ by Carl Shul­man and Nick Bostrom

David Mathers🔸Oct 7, 2022, 1:36 PM
35 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

Misha Yagudin and Ozzie Gooen Dis­cuss LLMs and Effec­tive Altruism

Ozzie GooenJan 6, 2023, 10:59 PM
47 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Iqisa: A Library For Han­dling Fore­cast­ing Datasets

niplavApr 14, 2023, 3:15 PM
46 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

Govern­ments Might Pre­fer Bring­ing Re­sources Back to the So­lar Sys­tem Rather than Space Set­tle­ment in Order to Main­tain Con­trol, Given that Govern­ing In­ter­stel­lar Set­tle­ments Looks Al­most Im­pos­si­ble

David Mathers🔸May 29, 2023, 11:16 AM
36 points
4 comments5 min readEA link

Be­ware pop­u­lar dis­cus­sions of AI “sen­tience”

David Mathers🔸Jun 8, 2023, 8:57 AM
42 points
6 comments9 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Launches Fu­ture of AI Series, Based on Re­search Ques­tions by Arb

christianMar 13, 2024, 9:14 PM
34 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.metaculus.com)

Com­par­ing top fore­cast­ers and do­main experts

technicalitiesMar 6, 2022, 8:43 PM
210 points
40 comments3 min readEA link
No comments.