RSS

Con­junc­tive vs. dis­junc­tive risk models

TagLast edit: Oct 28, 2022, 3:03 PM by Lizka

Models of catastrophic risks can be conjunctive or disjunctive. A conjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster is caused by the co-occurrence of multiple conditions (). In a conjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is less than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions. By contrast, a disjunctive risk model is one in which the disaster occurs as a result of any of several conditions holding (). In a disjunctive model, the probability of the disaster is greater than or equal to the probabilities of the individual conditions.

Examples of conjunctive and disjunctive risk models of AI risk:

Both types of models are simplifying assumptions. In reality, a disaster can be caused by multiple conditions that interact conjunctively and disjunctively. For example, a disaster could occur if conditions and are true, or if condition is true: .

Further reading

Soares, Nate (2021) Comments on Carlsmith’s “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”, LessWrong, November 13.

Related entries

compound existential risk | existential risk | existential risk factor | global catastrophic risk | models | expected value | forecasting | impact assessment | model uncertainty

  1. ^

    Carlsmith, Joseph (2021) Draft report on existential risk from power-seeking AI, Effective Altruism Forum, April 28.

  2. ^

    Soares, Nate (2022) AGI ruin scenarios are likely (and disjunctive), Effective Altruism Forum, July 27.

AGI ruin sce­nar­ios are likely (and dis­junc­tive)

So8resJul 27, 2022, 3:24 AM
53 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

‘Dis­solv­ing’ AI Risk – Pa­ram­e­ter Uncer­tainty in AI Fu­ture Forecasting

FroolowOct 18, 2022, 10:54 PM
111 points
63 comments39 min readEA link

Re­views of “Is power-seek­ing AI an ex­is­ten­tial risk?”

Joe_CarlsmithDec 16, 2021, 8:50 PM
71 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

Draft re­port on ex­is­ten­tial risk from power-seek­ing AI

Joe_CarlsmithApr 28, 2021, 9:41 PM
88 points
34 comments1 min readEA link

The Fermi Para­dox has not been dissolved

James FodorDec 12, 2020, 12:02 PM
107 points
14 comments14 min readEA link
No comments.