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Models

TagLast edit: 29 Jun 2021 14:29 UTC by Pablo

A model is a simplified representation of some aspect of the world, which can be more easily analyzed than the world itself. When assessing and assimilating evidence, it will often be necessary to construct models.

For instance, economists who are interested in predicting how people will behave often analyze models in which everyone acts perfectly in accordance with decision theory. Although the existence of cognitive biases means that no real people actually act this way, economists are able to make mathematically precise conclusions about these models in a way they could not about the actual world. They then argue that their models are similar enough to reality to be a useful way to structure thinking about the relevant aspect of the world.

See game theory and 80,000 Hours’ three-factor framework for two examples of models being used within the context of effective altruism.

Perhaps the main difficulty when building a model is dealing with uncertainty. First, in cases where there is substantial certainty about the relevant aspect of the world, it may be necessary to incorporate uncertainty into the model. Second, there may be [uncertainty about whether the model is appropriate, or whether it diverges too substantially from reality to be instructive.

Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ Cross-Cause Cost-Effec­tive­ness Model: In­tro­duc­tion and Overview

Derek Shiller3 Nov 2023 12:26 UTC
214 points
70 comments13 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk Model­ling with Con­tin­u­ous-Time Markov Chains

Radical Empath Ismam23 Jan 2023 20:32 UTC
87 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

Cost-effec­tive­ness of re­stricted donations

Vasco Grilo3 Feb 2024 9:36 UTC
10 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

How bad would nu­clear win­ter caused by a US-Rus­sia nu­clear ex­change be?

Luisa_Rodriguez20 Jun 2019 1:48 UTC
141 points
18 comments40 min readEA link

Ex­pected value and un­cer­tainty with­out full Monte Carlo simulations

Vasco Grilo5 Jan 2024 8:57 UTC
12 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

How valuable is move­ment growth?

Owen Cotton-Barratt14 May 2015 20:54 UTC
61 points
21 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesproject.org)

Model-Based Policy Anal­y­sis un­der Deep Uncertainty

Max Reddel6 Mar 2023 14:24 UTC
103 points
31 comments21 min readEA link

Mak­ing bet­ter es­ti­mates with scarce information

Stan Pinsent22 Mar 2023 16:29 UTC
48 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

Si­mu­la­tion mod­els could help pre­pare for the next pandemic

Rory Greig29 Oct 2022 14:10 UTC
34 points
4 comments10 min readEA link

What com­plex­ity sci­ence and simu­la­tion have to offer effec­tive altruism

Rory Greig8 Jun 2021 9:50 UTC
63 points
15 comments22 min readEA link

Why Si­mu­la­tor AIs want to be Ac­tive In­fer­ence AIs

Jan_Kulveit11 Apr 2023 9:06 UTC
22 points
0 comments8 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

“The Race to the End of Hu­man­ity” – Struc­tural Uncer­tainty Anal­y­sis in AI Risk Models

Froolow19 May 2023 12:03 UTC
48 points
4 comments21 min readEA link

Disen­tan­gling “Im­prov­ing In­sti­tu­tional De­ci­sion-Mak­ing”

Lizka13 Sep 2021 23:50 UTC
90 points
16 comments19 min readEA link

Meta-EA Needs Models

Mark Xu5 Apr 2021 21:59 UTC
39 points
7 comments4 min readEA link
(markxu.com)

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempere10 Mar 2022 18:52 UTC
155 points
54 comments5 min readEA link

High-risk high-re­ward philan­thropy: ap­ply­ing ven­ture cap­i­tal con­cepts to do­ing good

James Özden4 Jul 2022 13:00 UTC
15 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Con­cave and con­vex altruism

finm27 Apr 2022 22:36 UTC
32 points
3 comments19 min readEA link

To fund re­search, or not to fund re­search, that is the question

JackM24 Apr 2022 18:46 UTC
20 points
4 comments7 min readEA link

Differ­en­tial Tech­nolog­i­cal Devel­op­ment: Some Early Thinking

Nick_Beckstead29 Sep 2015 10:23 UTC
4 points
0 comments9 min readEA link
(blog.givewell.org)

A Model of Hits-Based Giving

harsimony25 Mar 2022 5:09 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readEA link
(harsimony.wordpress.com)

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC
302 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Solv­ing for the op­ti­mal work-life bal­ance with ge­o­met­ric rationality

Eric Neyman28 Nov 2022 17:16 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

How bad could a war get?

Stephen Clare4 Nov 2022 9:25 UTC
130 points
11 comments9 min readEA link

A Pre­limi­nary Model of Mis­sion-Cor­re­lated Investing

MichaelDickens4 Apr 2022 18:50 UTC
34 points
2 comments22 min readEA link

Niche vs. broad-ap­peal posts (& how this re­lates to use­ful­ness/​karma) (a sketch)

Lizka17 Dec 2022 18:11 UTC
34 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

We can do bet­ter than argmax

Jan_Kulveit10 Oct 2022 10:32 UTC
113 points
36 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] Model­ing hu­man­ity’s ro­bust­ness to GCRs?

QubitSwarm999 Jun 2022 17:20 UTC
7 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

The Pug­wash Con­fer­ences and the Anti-Bal­lis­tic Mis­sile Treaty as a case study of Track II diplomacy

rani_martin16 Sep 2022 10:42 UTC
82 points
5 comments27 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing the cost-effec­tive­ness of try­ing some­thing new

Falk Lieder3 Apr 2023 12:29 UTC
46 points
2 comments5 min readEA link

Ram­sey and In­ter­gen­er­a­tional Welfare Eco­nomics—Stan­ford En­cy­clo­pe­dia of Philosophy

BrownHairedEevee24 May 2023 0:27 UTC
14 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(plato.stanford.edu)

In­cor­po­rat­ing and vi­su­al­iz­ing un­cer­tainty in cost effec­tive­ness analy­ses: A walk­through us­ing GiveWell’s es­ti­mates for StrongMinds

Jamie Elsey7 Nov 2023 12:50 UTC
69 points
6 comments16 min readEA link

[Question] Should Open Philan­thropy build de­tailed quan­ti­ta­tive mod­els which es­ti­mate global catas­trophic risk?

Vasco Grilo10 Apr 2024 17:17 UTC
11 points
4 comments1 min readEA link

My cur­rent best guess on how to ag­gre­gate forecasts

Jaime Sevilla6 Oct 2021 8:33 UTC
39 points
17 comments3 min readEA link

Sav­ing lives in nor­mal times is bet­ter to im­prove the longterm fu­ture than do­ing so in catas­tro­phes?

Vasco Grilo20 Apr 2024 8:37 UTC
11 points
25 comments9 min readEA link

Co­op­er­at­ing with aliens and AGIs: An ECL explainer

Chi24 Feb 2024 22:58 UTC
51 points
9 comments20 min readEA link

Everett branches, in­ter-light cone trade and other alien mat­ters: Ap­pendix to “An ECL ex­plainer”

Chi24 Feb 2024 23:09 UTC
25 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

FIRE & EA: Seek­ing feed­back on “Fi-lan­thropy” Calculator

Rebecca Herbst30 Jan 2023 20:20 UTC
116 points
21 comments4 min readEA link

Ro­bust longterm comparisons

Toby_Ord15 May 2024 15:07 UTC
44 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

How could we know that an AGI sys­tem will have good con­se­quences?

So8res7 Nov 2022 22:42 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

If ev­ery­one makes the same crit­i­cism, the op­po­site crit­i­cism is more likely to be true

MichaelDickens17 Dec 2022 0:30 UTC
45 points
12 comments2 min readEA link

“AI” is an indexical

ThomasW3 Jan 2023 22:00 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Went­worth and Larsen on buy­ing time

Akash9 Jan 2023 21:31 UTC
48 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC
31 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

“My Model Of EA Burnout” (Lo­gan Strohl)

Will Aldred3 Feb 2023 0:23 UTC
97 points
2 comments6 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Select Challenges with Crit­i­cism & Eval­u­a­tion Around EA

Ozzie Gooen10 Feb 2023 23:36 UTC
111 points
5 comments6 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

AI al­ign­ment re­searchers don’t (seem to) stack

So8res21 Feb 2023 0:48 UTC
47 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Hyper­bolic Science: Or, Play­ing Games with Growth

Adam Green26 Aug 2022 2:41 UTC
2 points
1 comment4 min readEA link
(markov.bio)

Lev­er­ag­ing fi­nance to in­crease re­silience to GCRs

PhilC17 Feb 2022 6:42 UTC
24 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

Ex­is­ten­tial Risk and Eco­nomic Growth

leopold3 Sep 2019 13:23 UTC
112 points
31 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Math­e­mat­i­cal mod­els of Ethics

Victor-SB8 Mar 2023 10:50 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

What makes money “Com­mit­ted” To EA? What makes an or­ga­ni­za­tion EA?

Charlie_Guthmann4 Oct 2022 22:51 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Three camps in AI x-risk dis­cus­sions: My per­sonal very over­sim­plified overview

Aryeh Englander30 Jun 2023 21:42 UTC
15 points
10 comments4 min readEA link

Con­crete Ad­vice for Form­ing In­side Views on AI Safety

Neel Nanda17 Aug 2022 23:26 UTC
58 points
4 comments9 min readEA link
(www.alignmentforum.org)

Is schem­ing more likely in mod­els trained to have long-term goals? (Sec­tions 2.2.4.1-2.2.4.2 of “Schem­ing AIs”)

Joe_Carlsmith30 Nov 2023 16:43 UTC
6 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

[Question] Does EA have good mod­els of cur­rent global spend­ing on cli­mate change pre­ven­tion, miti­ga­tion, or adap­ta­tion?

Noah Scales4 Oct 2022 23:41 UTC
3 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Cor­rec­tion to “The Value of Money Go­ing to Differ­ent Groups”

BenjaminSMiller28 Mar 2023 20:41 UTC
33 points
2 comments2 min readEA link

Pan­demic Pre­pared­ness: Stake­hold­ers who in­fluence poli­ti­ci­ans in the UK

Alexandra Malikova8 Dec 2022 22:15 UTC
19 points
2 comments14 min readEA link

The space of sys­tems and the space of maps

Jan_Kulveit22 Mar 2023 16:05 UTC
12 points
0 comments5 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Fore­cast­ing: the way I think about it

Molly Hickman16 May 2024 19:01 UTC
16 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle Hub

Ozzie Gooen5 Aug 2023 0:55 UTC
131 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Poli­ti­cal Science Quan­ti­ta­tive Meth­ods and EA

Mahendra Prasad16 Sep 2022 23:28 UTC
12 points
1 comment4 min readEA link

Le Tem­p­is­tiche delle IA: il di­bat­tito e il punto di vista degli “es­perti”

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 23:30 UTC
1 point
0 comments11 min readEA link

My ver­sion of Si­mu­lacra Levels

kokotajlod26 Apr 2023 19:06 UTC
24 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Ar­gu­ments for/​against schem­ing that fo­cus on the path SGD takes (Sec­tion 3 of “Schem­ing AIs”)

Joe_Carlsmith5 Dec 2023 18:48 UTC
7 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Why we’re get­ting the Fidelity Model wrong

Alishaandomeda17 Dec 2022 11:40 UTC
46 points
3 comments7 min readEA link
(forum.effectivealtruism.org)

Trust de­vel­ops grad­u­ally via mak­ing bids and set­ting boundaries

richard_ngo19 May 2023 22:16 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Re­boot­ing AI Gover­nance: An AI-Driven Ap­proach to AI Governance

Max Reddel20 May 2023 19:06 UTC
38 points
4 comments30 min readEA link

Some (prob­le­matic) aes­thet­ics of what con­sti­tutes good work in academia

Steven Byrnes11 Mar 2024 17:47 UTC
44 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

[Link post] Michael Niel­sen’s “Notes on Ex­is­ten­tial Risk from Ar­tifi­cial Su­per­in­tel­li­gence”

Joel Becker19 Sep 2023 13:31 UTC
38 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(michaelnotebook.com)

EA cause ar­eas are likely power-law dis­tributed too

Stian25 May 2023 20:25 UTC
38 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(stiangronlund.substack.com)

Spe­cial­iza­tion and Giv­ing to Charity

carter allen27 May 2023 4:27 UTC
8 points
3 comments2 min readEA link

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
88 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

[Question] Does EA have a model for sci­en­tific im­pact?

Jay Bailey8 Apr 2022 1:34 UTC
16 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Some bi­ases and se­lec­tion effects in AI risk discourse

Tamsin Leake12 Dec 2023 17:55 UTC
4 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(carado.moe)

Ad­vice for En­ter­ing AI Safety Research

stecas2 Jun 2023 20:46 UTC
14 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Part 1: The AI Safety com­mu­nity has four main work groups, Strat­egy, Gover­nance, Tech­ni­cal and Move­ment Building

PeterSlattery25 Nov 2022 3:45 UTC
72 points
7 comments6 min readEA link

A model about the effect of to­tal ex­is­ten­tial risk on ca­reer choice

Jonas Moss10 Sep 2022 7:18 UTC
12 points
4 comments2 min readEA link

On sincerity

Joe_Carlsmith23 Dec 2022 17:14 UTC
46 points
3 comments42 min readEA link

Carlo: un­cer­tainty anal­y­sis in Google Sheets

ProbabilityEnjoyer18 Mar 2024 13:06 UTC
42 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(carlo.app)

Im­pact mar­kets may in­cen­tivize pre­dictably net-nega­tive projects

Ofer21 Jun 2022 13:00 UTC
113 points
76 comments4 min readEA link

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
101 points
27 comments12 min readEA link

My ten­ta­tive best guess on how EAs and Ra­tion­al­ists some­times turn crazy

Habryka21 Jun 2023 4:11 UTC
160 points
39 comments1 min readEA link

Sce­nario plan­ning for AI x-risk

Corin Katzke10 Feb 2024 0:07 UTC
34 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

Lo­ca­tion Model­ling for Post-Nu­clear Re­fuge Bunkers

Bleddyn Mottershead14 Feb 2024 7:09 UTC
10 points
2 comments15 min readEA link

Much EA value comes from be­ing a Schel­ling point

L Rudolf L10 Sep 2022 7:26 UTC
131 points
9 comments10 min readEA link
(www.strataoftheworld.com)

Probly: a Python-like lan­guage for prob­a­bil­is­tic modelling

ProbabilityEnjoyer18 Mar 2024 13:19 UTC
13 points
1 comment1 min readEA link
(probly.dev)

Which coun­tries should be pri­ori­tised in pre­vent­ing the in­ten­sifi­ca­tion of fac­tory farm­ing in Sub Sa­haran Africa?

Aashish K17 Mar 2024 17:52 UTC
22 points
5 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

[Question] Is the game de­sign/​art maxim more gen­er­al­iz­able to crit­i­cism/​praise it­self?

Sharmake22 Sep 2022 21:21 UTC
8 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Be less trust­ing of in­tu­itive ar­gu­ments about so­cial phe­nom­ena

Nathan_Barnard18 Dec 2022 1:11 UTC
43 points
20 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] How Often Does ¬Cor­re­la­tion ⇏ ¬Cau­sa­tion?

niplav2 Apr 2024 18:19 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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