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Global catas­trophic risk

TagLast edit: 12 Jan 2022 15:11 UTC by Pablo

A global catastrophic risk (GCR) is an event that poses a risk of major harm on a global scale.[1]

GCRs risks include, but are not restricted to, existential risks. Examples of non-existential GCRs include risks of hundreds of millions of people dying due to a natural pandemic or due to anthropogenic climate change.

Such catastrophic risks have obviously bad direct effects: they may involve many people dying, or our technological capabilities being greatly reduced. There may also be bad indirect effects, for instance by destabilizing political systems in a way that increases the likelihood of war or totalitarian government.

Some GCRs which are not themselves existential risks could still increase existential risk via their indirect effects. Such GCRs may be regarded as existential risk factors, or as components of a compound existential risk. Arguably, climate change might increase political tensions, hastening nuclear or biological warfare. Alternatively, civilization could eventually rebound to something like its previous state. The Black Death—the deadliest catastrophe in human history—killed something like 10% of the world’s population without obviously affecting humanity’s long-term potential.[2]

Even if global catastrophic risks do not pose an existential risk, they might still be high priority causes justified purely by their nearer-term consequences.

Further reading

Aird, Michael (2020) Collection of some definitions of global catastrophic risks (GCRs), Effective Altruism Forum, February 28.
Many additional resources on this topic.

Avin, Shahar et al. (2018) Classifying global catastrophic risks, Futures, vol. 102, pp. 20–26.

Bostrom, Nick & Milan Ćirković (eds.) (2008) Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cotton-Barratt, Owen et al. (2016) Global catastrophic risks 2016, Global Priorities Project.
A report examining various types of global catastrophic risk.

Koehler, Arden & Keiran Harris (2020) Owen Cotton-Barratt on epistemic systems & layers of defence against potential global catastrophes, 80,000 Hours, December 16.

Open Philanthropy (2016) Global catastrophic risks, Open Philanthropy, March 2.

Related entries

civilizational collapse | existential risk | existential risk factor | global catastrophic biological risk | Nuclear Threat Initiative | warning shot

  1. ^

    Bostrom, Nick & Milan Ćirković (eds.) (2008) Global Catastrophic Risks, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  2. ^

    Muehlhauser, Luke (2017) How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution?, Luke Muehlhauser’s Website.

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176 points
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1 comment18 min readEA link

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92 points
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68 points
28 comments1 min readEA link

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98 points
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116 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
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21 points
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42 points
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177 points
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101 points
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85 points
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58 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

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16 points
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1 comment15 min readEA link

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14 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
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65 points
13 comments3 min readEA link

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6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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17 points
3 comments22 min readEA link

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12 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

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46 points
15 comments1 min readEA link

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17 points
0 comments25 min readEA link

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38 points
23 comments2 min readEA link

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40 points
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52 points
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34 points
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3 points
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35 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

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39 points
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19 points
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21 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

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32 points
14 comments1 min readEA link

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4 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

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44 points
12 comments14 min readEA link

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4 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

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10 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

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83 points
10 comments26 min readEA link
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37 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

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111 points
3 comments10 min readEA link

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31 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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7 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

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104 points
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7 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

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31 points
2 comments3 min readEA link

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33 points
12 comments14 min readEA link

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DannyBressler1 Feb 2024 17:36 UTC
46 points
9 comments19 min readEA link

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Stan Pinsent20 Oct 2023 9:15 UTC
26 points
6 comments4 min readEA link

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8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

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Matt Boyd21 Mar 2023 6:05 UTC
26 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

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JorgeTorresC9 Jan 2024 2:13 UTC
25 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
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Sonia_Cassidy1 Dec 2023 0:47 UTC
61 points
5 comments27 min readEA link

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JorgeTorresC31 Jul 2023 19:36 UTC
25 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

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JorgeTorresC14 Dec 2023 14:27 UTC
75 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com)

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christian.r25 Jul 2023 20:22 UTC
83 points
15 comments76 min readEA link
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Aron Lajko27 Jul 2023 17:43 UTC
15 points
3 comments10 min readEA link

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rosehadshar24 Jul 2023 15:16 UTC
51 points
1 comment11 min readEA link

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Kiliank27 Mar 2022 11:44 UTC
14 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

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Tobias Häberli27 Mar 2023 15:35 UTC
32 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

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Michael Hinge5 Apr 2023 20:33 UTC
26 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

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Kinoshita Yoshikazu (pseudonym)7 Apr 2023 16:05 UTC
2 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

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JorgeTorresC13 Feb 2024 17:01 UTC
19 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

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NitaSangha24 Apr 2023 8:06 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

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JorgeTorresC22 Aug 2023 20:52 UTC
46 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com)

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Fin8 Mar 2022 17:04 UTC
103 points
13 comments11 min readEA link

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Tom Barnes9 Dec 2022 15:36 UTC
30 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(founderspledge.com)

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ewu7 Sep 2022 2:45 UTC
5 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Ca­reers con­cern­ing Global Catas­trophic Biolog­i­cal Risks (GCBRs) from a Ger­man perspective

Iftekhar1 Sep 2022 5:05 UTC
20 points
0 comments4 min readEA link

CEEALAR’s The­ory of Change

CEEALAR19 Dec 2023 20:21 UTC
51 points
5 comments3 min readEA link

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Gavriel Kleinwaks3 May 2023 18:25 UTC
59 points
3 comments6 min readEA link
(drive.google.com)

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christian.r25 May 2022 17:02 UTC
25 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lawfareblog.com)

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Matt Boyd7 Aug 2022 2:18 UTC
36 points
6 comments19 min readEA link

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Nick_Beckstead29 Sep 2015 10:23 UTC
4 points
0 comments9 min readEA link
(blog.givewell.org)

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Aryeh Englander7 Jul 2022 21:08 UTC
28 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

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Ramiro6 Jul 2022 17:08 UTC
19 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

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Matt Boyd10 May 2021 4:25 UTC
8 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Sum­mary: High risk, low re­ward: A challenge to the as­tro­nom­i­cal value of ex­is­ten­tial risk mitigation

Global Priorities Institute12 Sep 2023 16:31 UTC
70 points
20 comments5 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Ex­plo­ra­tory Sce­nario Map­ping for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion [Linkpost]

Kiliank9 May 2022 19:53 UTC
17 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

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GideonF20 Aug 2022 12:22 UTC
10 points
4 comments1 min readEA link
(open.spotify.com)

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Holden Karnofsky18 Jul 2013 16:04 UTC
2 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

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Richard Ren3 May 2022 16:51 UTC
52 points
15 comments20 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Founders Pledge Global Catas­trophic Risks Fund

christian.r26 Oct 2022 13:39 UTC
49 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Lev­er­ag­ing fi­nance to in­crease re­silience to GCRs

PhilC17 Feb 2022 6:42 UTC
24 points
9 comments12 min readEA link

Se­cu­rity Among The Stars—a de­tailed ap­praisal of space set­tle­ment and ex­is­ten­tial risk

Christopher Lankhof13 Nov 2023 14:54 UTC
31 points
9 comments2 min readEA link

The fu­ture of nu­clear war

turchin21 May 2022 8:00 UTC
37 points
2 comments35 min readEA link

Com­mon Points of Ad­vice for Stu­dents and Early-Ca­reer Pro­fes­sion­als In­ter­ested in Global Catas­trophic Risk

SethBaum16 Nov 2021 20:51 UTC
60 points
5 comments15 min readEA link

In­ter­gen­er­a­tional equity un­der catas­trophic cli­mate change

Global Priorities Institute31 Oct 2017 13:33 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Why we should fear any bio­eng­ineered fun­gus and give fungi re­search attention

emmannaemeka18 Aug 2023 3:35 UTC
67 points
4 comments3 min readEA link

Cause pri­ori­ti­sa­tion: Prevent­ing lake Kivu in Africa erup­tion which could kill two mil­lion.

turchin28 Dec 2022 12:32 UTC
70 points
3 comments3 min readEA link