Long-range forecasting is forecasting involving long time horizons. Long-range forecasts are sometimes defined as involving events at least 10 years into the future,[1] although there is no generally agreed-upon definition.
Further reading
Goth, Aidan, Stephen Clare & Christian Ruhl (2022) Professor Philip Tetlock’s research on improving judgments of existential risk, Founders Pledge, March 8.
Karnofsky, Holden (2022) The track record of futurists seems … fine, Cold Takes, June 30.
Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.
Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.
Related entries
AI forecasting | cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-term future | longtermism
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Muehlhauser, Luke (2019) How feasible is long-range forecasting?, Open Philanthropy, October 10.