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Quan­tified Uncer­tainty Re­search Institute

TagLast edit: 3 Nov 2022 16:57 UTC by brook

The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.

Funding

As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the Survival and Flourishing Fund,[1][2] and $200,000 from the Future Fund.[3]

External links

Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. Official website.

Related Entries

squiggle | guesstimate

  1. ^

    Survival and Flourishing Fund (2019) SFF-2020-H1 S-process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

  2. ^

    Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

  3. ^

    Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: QURI, Future Fund.

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie Gooen18 Oct 2021 22:22 UTC
88 points
34 comments5 min readEA link

Valu­ing re­search works by elic­it­ing com­par­i­sons from EA researchers

NunoSempere17 Mar 2022 19:58 UTC
114 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Shal­low eval­u­a­tions of longter­mist organizations

NunoSempere24 Jun 2021 15:31 UTC
192 points
34 comments34 min readEA link

Who is Un­com­fortable Cri­tiquing Who, Around EA?

Ozzie Gooen24 Feb 2023 5:55 UTC
150 points
15 comments11 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Candidates

NunoSempere25 Dec 2020 16:34 UTC
282 points
71 comments47 min readEA link

Win­ners of the Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion and 80,000 Hours Quan­tifi­ca­tion Challenges

NunoSempere8 Mar 2023 1:03 UTC
62 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Value Func­tions: A Flex­ible New For­mat for Value Estimation

Ozzie Gooen18 May 2023 16:39 UTC
58 points
23 comments18 min readEA link

Ac­cu­racy Agree­ments: A Flex­ible Alter­na­tive to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Ozzie Gooen20 Apr 2023 3:09 UTC
37 points
5 comments4 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2022 0:23 UTC
147 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie Gooen4 Aug 2022 14:20 UTC
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempere18 Feb 2022 20:39 UTC
94 points
8 comments12 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempere12 Sep 2022 11:19 UTC
111 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

2018-2019 Long-Term Fu­ture Fund Gran­tees: How did they do?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
194 points
23 comments5 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive val­ues for an­i­mal suffer­ing and ACE Top Charities

NunoSempere30 May 2023 16:37 UTC
33 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempere2 Sep 2022 9:37 UTC
52 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Flimsy Pet The­o­ries, Enor­mous Initiatives

Ozzie Gooen9 Dec 2021 15:10 UTC
212 points
57 comments4 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the Value of Evaluations

Elizabeth10 Jan 2021 22:59 UTC
23 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempere26 Aug 2022 10:03 UTC
47 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Sim­ple com­par­i­son pol­ling to cre­ate util­ity functions

NunoSempere15 Nov 2021 19:48 UTC
46 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Can­di­dates: Jan­uary 2021–March 2022 update

Leo30 Apr 2022 17:21 UTC
123 points
18 comments19 min readEA link

Why don’t gov­ern­ments seem to mind that com­pa­nies are ex­plic­itly try­ing to make AGIs?

Ozzie Gooen23 Dec 2021 7:08 UTC
82 points
49 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell’s GiveDirectly Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

SamNolan27 May 2022 3:10 UTC
130 points
19 comments6 min readEA link

Con­tri­bu­tion-Ad­justed Utility Max­i­miza­tion Funds: An Early Proposal

Ozzie Gooen3 Aug 2021 23:01 UTC
14 points
4 comments12 min readEA link

Brief eval­u­a­tions of top-10 billionnaires

NunoSempere21 Oct 2022 15:29 UTC
81 points
66 comments6 min readEA link

Disagree­ables and Asses­sors: Two In­tel­lec­tual Archetypes

Ozzie Gooen5 Nov 2021 9:01 UTC
91 points
20 comments3 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempere16 Jun 2022 16:40 UTC
302 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Build­ing Blocks of Utility Maximization

NunoSempere20 Sep 2021 17:23 UTC
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

A Fun­nel for Cause Candidates

NunoSempere13 Jan 2021 19:45 UTC
34 points
24 comments3 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie Gooen15 Nov 2020 21:21 UTC
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
132 points
17 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What should the norms around pri­vacy and eval­u­a­tion in the EA com­mu­nity be?

NunoSempere16 Jun 2021 17:31 UTC
66 points
17 comments1 min readEA link

An es­ti­mate of the value of Me­tac­u­lus questions

NunoSempere22 Oct 2021 17:45 UTC
45 points
19 comments8 min readEA link

What are good rubrics or rubric el­e­ments to eval­u­ate and pre­dict im­pact?

NunoSempere3 Dec 2020 21:52 UTC
24 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

$5k challenge to quan­tify the im­pact of 80,000 hours’ top ca­reer paths

NunoSempere23 Sep 2022 11:32 UTC
126 points
14 comments6 min readEA link

Can/​should we au­to­mate most hu­man de­ci­sions, pre-AGI?

Ozzie Gooen26 Dec 2021 1:37 UTC
25 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the Value of Small Altru­is­tic Pro­jects: A Proof of Con­cept Ex­per­i­ment.

NunoSempere22 Nov 2020 20:07 UTC
62 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Misha Yagudin and Ozzie Gooen Dis­cuss LLMs and Effec­tive Altruism

Ozzie Gooen6 Jan 2023 22:59 UTC
47 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

14 Ways ML Could Im­prove In­for­ma­tive Video

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:53 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Can GPT-3 pro­duce new ideas? Par­tially au­tomat­ing Robin Han­son and others

NunoSempere16 Jan 2023 15:05 UTC
82 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

EA could use bet­ter in­ter­nal com­mu­ni­ca­tions infrastructure

Ozzie Gooen12 Jan 2023 1:07 UTC
67 points
11 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Why does Academia+EA pro­duce so few on­line videos?

Ozzie Gooen10 Jan 2023 13:49 UTC
24 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

An in-progress ex­per­i­ment to test how Laplace’s rule of suc­ces­sion performs in prac­tice.

NunoSempere30 Jan 2023 17:41 UTC
57 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie Gooen1 Feb 2023 0:07 UTC
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Straight­for­wardly elic­it­ing prob­a­bil­ities from GPT-3

NunoSempere9 Feb 2023 19:25 UTC
41 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Select Challenges with Crit­i­cism & Eval­u­a­tion Around EA

Ozzie Gooen10 Feb 2023 23:36 UTC
111 points
5 comments6 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempere23 Jan 2023 20:08 UTC
435 points
116 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle Hub

Ozzie Gooen5 Aug 2023 0:55 UTC
131 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempere19 Feb 2021 19:07 UTC
44 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Open Com­mu­ni­ca­tion in the Days of Mal­i­cious On­line Actors

Ozzie Gooen6 Oct 2020 23:57 UTC
38 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempere10 Oct 2022 14:42 UTC
33 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alex lawsen10 Nov 2020 21:40 UTC
56 points
11 comments5 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment to eval­u­ate the value of one re­searcher’s work

NunoSempere1 Dec 2020 9:01 UTC
57 points
23 comments10 min readEA link

Im­prove del­e­ga­tion abil­ities to­day, del­e­gate heav­ily tomorrow

Ozzie Gooen11 Nov 2021 21:52 UTC
58 points
11 comments2 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Im­pact of the First 10 EA Fo­rum Prize Winners

NunoSempere16 Mar 2021 17:11 UTC
88 points
35 comments18 min readEA link

13 Very Differ­ent Stances on AGI

Ozzie Gooen27 Dec 2021 23:30 UTC
84 points
23 comments3 min readEA link

Track­ing the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempere9 Nov 2022 16:10 UTC
76 points
5 comments10 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Am­bi­tious Altru­is­tic Soft­ware Eng­ineer­ing Efforts: Op­por­tu­ni­ties and Benefits

Ozzie Gooen17 Nov 2021 18:12 UTC
109 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Do­ing Good Badly? - Michael Plant’s the­sis, Chap­ters 5,6 on Cause Pri­ori­ti­za­tion

EdoArad4 Mar 2021 16:57 UTC
75 points
16 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­ter­nal Eval­u­a­tion of the EA Wiki

NunoSempere13 Dec 2021 17:09 UTC
78 points
18 comments19 min readEA link

EA/​Ra­tion­al­ist Safety Nets: Promis­ing, but Arduous

Ozzie Gooen29 Dec 2021 18:41 UTC
69 points
36 comments4 min readEA link

Op­por­tu­nity Costs of Tech­ni­cal Ta­lent: In­tu­ition and (Sim­ple) Implications

Ozzie Gooen19 Nov 2021 15:04 UTC
53 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Ideas for Next-Gen­er­a­tion Writ­ing Plat­forms, us­ing LLMs

Ozzie Gooen4 Jun 2024 18:40 UTC
17 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

A Case for Su­per­hu­man Gover­nance, us­ing AI

Ozzie Gooen7 Jun 2024 0:10 UTC
53 points
26 comments10 min readEA link

En­hanc­ing Math­e­mat­i­cal Model­ing with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

Ozzie Gooen28 Oct 2024 21:37 UTC
9 points
3 comments15 min readEA link

Path­ways to im­pact for fore­cast­ing and evaluation

NunoSempere25 Nov 2021 17:59 UTC
29 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

Owain Evans on LLMs, Truth­ful AI, AI Com­po­si­tion, and More

Ozzie Gooen2 May 2023 1:20 UTC
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Think­ing of Con­ve­nience as an Eco­nomic Term

Ozzie Gooen5 May 2023 19:09 UTC
28 points
5 comments12 min readEA link

A flaw in a sim­ple ver­sion of wor­ld­view diversification

NunoSempere15 May 2023 18:12 UTC
45 points
22 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Us­ing Points to Rate Differ­ent Kinds of Evidence

Ozzie Gooen25 Aug 2023 19:26 UTC
33 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Open Tech­ni­cal Challenges around Prob­a­bil­is­tic Pro­grams and Javascript

Ozzie Gooen26 Aug 2023 2:04 UTC
39 points
3 comments6 min readEA link

“Full Au­toma­tion” is a Slip­pery Metric

Ozzie Gooen11 Jun 2024 19:53 UTC
18 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Pa­trick Gruban on Effec­tive Altru­ism Ger­many and Non­profit Boards in EA

Ozzie Gooen5 May 2023 17:23 UTC
42 points
2 comments45 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

LLM-Se­cured Sys­tems: A Gen­eral-Pur­pose Tool For Struc­tured Transparency

Ozzie Gooen18 Jun 2024 0:20 UTC
25 points
1 comment21 min readEA link

Distinc­tions when Dis­cussing Utility Functions

Ozzie Gooen8 Mar 2024 18:43 UTC
15 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Is Fore­cast­ing a Promis­ing EA Cause Area?

Ozzie Gooen25 Mar 2024 20:36 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie Gooen26 Jun 2024 0:40 UTC
44 points
7 comments24 min readEA link

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie Gooen21 May 2024 4:09 UTC
46 points
7 comments8 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie Gooen22 May 2024 21:49 UTC
35 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolan31 Oct 2022 14:31 UTC
118 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

Value of In­fo­ma­tion, an ex­am­ple with GiveDirectly

SamNolan30 Aug 2022 20:37 UTC
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Metafore­cast late 2022 up­date: GraphQL API, Charts, bet­ter in­fras­truc­ture be­hind the scenes.

NunoSempere4 Nov 2022 17:56 UTC
39 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

jacobjacob30 Jul 2019 11:16 UTC
38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link
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