ontological shifts seem likely
what you mean by this? (compare “we don’t know how to prevent an ontological collapse, where meaning structures constructed under one world-model compile to something different under a different world model”. Is this the same thing?). Is there a good writeup anywhere of why we should expect this to happen? This seems speculative and unlikely to me
evidence from evolution suggests that values are strongly contingent on the kinds of selection pressures which produced various species
The fact that natural selection produced species with different goals/values/whatever isn’t evidence that that’s the only way to get those values, because “selection pressure” isn’t a mechanistic explanation. You need more info about how values are actually implemented to rule out that a proposed alternative route to natural selection succeeds in reproducing them.
The point I was trying to make is that natural selection isn’t a “mechanism” in the right sense at all. it’s a causal/historical explanation not an account of how values are implemented. What is the evidence from evolution? The fact that species with different natural histories end up with different values really doesn’t tell us much without a discussion of mechanisms. We need to know 1) how different are the mechanisms actually used to point biological and artificial cognitive systems toward ends and 2) how many possible mechanisms to do so are there.
One reason for pessimism would be that human value learning has too many messy details. But LLMs are already better behaved than anything in the animal kingdom besides humans and are pretty good at intuitively following instructions, so there is not much evidence for this problem. If you think they are not so brainlike, then this is evidence that not-so-brainlike mechanisms work. And there are also theories that value learning in current AI works roughly similarly to value learning in the brain.
Which is just to say I don’t see the prior for pessimism, just from looking at evolution.