Hi Aaron, I’m afraid as mentioned I don’t know this area very well so I’m not familar with the literature and cannot point you towards particular papers. I used this fungi case study as an example to point out that risk must be understood as more than the hazard (e.g. drought), but also the vulnerablity (e.g. resilience levels of plants against drought): if resilience has decreased, the trend in yield will not decrease to show the increased risk up until the point where the hazard hits and the vulnerability is exploited.
But I’m happy to point Open Phil towards researchers who do know and think a lot more about this. Tail-risk studies in climate change are generally neglected, so some of our peparedness efforts might have to be based on conversations with experts rather than a literature search.
Hi Alex—thanks for stopping by of course! Delighted you found it enjoyable to read. How cool that you know Merlin, he seems fascinating. We’ve only briefly been in contact and I can’t wait to see what he does next after this book was such a success. He seems to be a deeply creative person.
For anyone who doesn’t know Merlin and wants to get a taste: here’s a video of him eating his own words :)