I’ve helped set up the Atlas Fellowship, a program that researches talent search and scholarships for exceptional students.
Previously, I ran EA Funds and the Center on Long-Term Risk. My background is in medicine (BMed) and economics (MSc). See my LinkedIn.
You can best reach me at jonas@atlasfellowship.org.
I appreciate honest and direct feedback.
Unless explicitly stated otherwise, opinions are my own, not my employer’s. (I think this is generally how everyone uses the EA Forum; others who don’t have such a disclaimer likely think about it similarly.)
I don’t think so, because:
A 10–15% annual risk was predicted by a bunch of people up until late 2021, but I’m not aware of anyone believing that in late 2022, and Will points out that Metaculus was predicting ~1.3% at the time. I personally updated downwards on the risk because 1) crypto markets crashed, but FTX didn’t, which seems like a positive sign, 2) Sequoia invested, 3) they got a GAAP audit.
I don’t think there was a great implementation of the trade. Shorting FTT on Binance was probably a decent way to do it, but holding funds on Binance for that purpose is risky and costly in itself.
That said, I’m aware that some people (not including myself) closely monitored the balance sheet issue and subsequent FTT liquidations, and withdrew their full balances a couple days before the collapse.