Merry Christmas and happy holidays :)
MathiasKB🔸
Karma: 6,382
ScrewÂworm Free FuÂture is hiring for a Director
LaunchÂing ScrewÂworm-Free FuÂture – FundÂing and SupÂport Request
I haven’t looked into this at all, but the effect of eradication efforts (whether through gene drive or the traditional sterile insect technique) is that screwworm stop reproducing and cease to exist, not that they die anguishing deaths.
I’m in San Francisco this weekend and next week, if you’re in the bay area want to meet, don’t hesitate to reach out :) (both happy to meet 1-1 and at social events)
Absolutely do so! In the eyes of the vast majority of employers, organizing a university group centered around charity shows character and energy, highly positive qualities in an employee.
How big a deal is the congressional commission? What is the historical track record of Congress implementing the commission’s top recommendation?
With hindsight, this comment from Jan Kulveit looks prescient.
I decided to drown a puppy in a local pond. Hopefully, doing so would toughen its character, rather than allowing it to succumb to modern frailty.
Laughed out loud for a good minute after reading this!
I strongly upvoted this post because I’m extremely interested in seeing it get more attention and, hopefully, a potential rebuttal. I think this is extremely important to get to the bottom of!
At first glance your critiques seem pretty damning, but I would have to put a bunch of time into understanding ACE’s evaluations first before I would be able to conclude whether I agree your critiques (I can spend a weekend day doing this and writing up my own thoughts in a new post if there is interest).
My expectation is that if I were to do this I would come out feeling less confident than you seem to be. I’m a bit concerned that you haven’t made an attempt at explaining why ACE might have constructed their analyses this way.
But like I’m pretty confused too. It’s hard to think of much justification for the choice of numbers in the ‘Impact Potential Score’ and deciding the impact of a book based on the average of all books doesn’t seem like the best way to approach things?
Doesn’t look like it
This is what my frontpage looks like
Naively, is there a case for using the average of the two?
[Linkpost] A NarÂrow Path—How to SeÂcure our Future
Two ideas off the top of my head
Distribution of charitable goods (such as insecticide nets or cash-transfers) and its effect on economic growth of the region/​country
Proportion of people identifying as flexitarian/​vegetarian/​vegan and the effects on sales of plant-based products.
EDIT: Someone on lesswrong linked a great report by Epoch which tries to answer exactly this.
With the release of openAI o1, I want to ask a question I’ve been wondering about for a few months.
Like the chinchilla paper, which estimated the optimal ratio of data to compute, are there any similar estimates for the optimal ratio of compute to spend on inference vs training?In the release they show this chart:
The chart somewhat gets at what I want to know, but doesn’t answer it completely. How much additional inference compute would I need a 1e25 o1-like model to perform as well as a one shotted 1e26?
Additionally, for some x number of queries, what is the optimal ratio of compute to spend on training versus inference? How does that change for different values of x?
Are there any public attempts at estimating this stuff? If so, where can I read about it?
Thanks for all of the hard work you put into developing and maintaining it!
Thanks, this was quite informative. Would love to read the full report, but $1000 is a bit steep!
Without having read the letter yet, why do you find it questionable?
I have pushed the idea on the CE research team to the point I’m sure they’re sick of hearing me rant about it!
To my knowledge it’s on their list of ideas to research for their next round of animal welfare charities