Building Nonlinear.
Drew Spartz
Karma: 754
A way you can quantify this is by looking at ad CPMs—how much advertisers are willing to pay for ads on your content.
This is a pretty objective metric for how much “influence” a creator has over their audience.
Podcasters can charge much more per view than longform Youtubers, and longform Youtubers can charge much more than shortform and so on.
This is actually understating it. It’s incredibly hard for shortform only creators to make money with ads or sponsors.
There is clearly still diminishing returns per viewer minute, but the curve is not that steep.
Another question is not just what happens when the viewer is watching your content, but what happens after. The important part is not awareness but what people actually do as a result of that awareness.
Top of the funnel content like shortform is still probably useful, but I decided against doing it because short form creators famously have very little ability to influence their audience. They can’t really get them to buy products, or join discords, let alone join a protest.
But podcasters and longform Youtubers certainly can, as evidenced by a large chunk of people in AI safety citing Rob Miles as their entry point.
Just wanted to say (without commenting on the points in the dialogue) that I appreciate you and Robert having this discussion, and I think the fact you’re having it is an example of good epistemics.
Appreciate you saying this, Michel. As you can imagine, it’s been rough. Perhaps accidentally, this post seems to often lump me in with situations I wasn’t really a part of.
Appreciate the comments!
My personal context: I joined Nonlinear full-time in April 2022. We’ve gone back and forth from being AI safety-focused to more generally x-risk-focused. We removed the fund from our name because we didn’t just want to fund projects but also launch relevant ones ourselves, like the Nonlinear Library.
Happy to provide more context here.
Nonlinear is or used to be a project of Spartz Philanthropies. According to the IRS website, Spartz Philanthropies had its 501(c)(3) status revoked in 2021 since it had not filed the necessary paperwork for three years straight. Now the Nonlinear website no longer mentions Spartz Philanthropies, and I am unsure whether Nonlinear is a tax-exempt nonprofit or what legal status it has.
Nonlinear, Inc is a 501c3. Spartz Philanthropies was an inactive entity that Emerson set up in 2018. We were initially planning on using it as the main entity for Nonlinear. We had filed an extension for the tax returns, but somehow the IRS missed the fact we filed it, which led to tax-exempt status being automatically revoked. Our accountant said you can appeal it and were very likely to win, since it was an error on their part, and we began the appeal, but it can take years. In the meantime, we were fiscally sponsored by Rethink Charity. The IRS was taking too long to respond to the appeal, so I set up a new entity.
Back in 2021, Nonlinear launched its AI safety fund with an announcement post which got some pushback/skepticism in the comments section. Does anyone know whether this fund has made any grants or seeded any new organisations? I have not managed to find any information about the Fund on the Nonlinear website.
I’ve actually been working on a more complete list of all the projects we’ve funded and incubated! But have been very unproductive the last two months due to a combination of an extremely painful RSI and chronic nausea/gut issues. We changed our name from the Nonlinear Fund to Nonlinear. Kat made a basic list here: https://www.nonlinear.org/
We aim to send it out to funders within the next 48 hours.
Nonlinear funded it through a bounty, but I’m unaware of any future plans. If anyone has any ideas for improvement or expansion, feel free to reach out.
Just read it and liked it a lot! Added to the recruiting/hiring category.
I haven’t! Do you recommend it?
Interesting, that updates me! I’ve added more qualifiers to that point.
Hi Aman,
Appreciate the question. We’ve received funding from different sources like the Survival and Flourishing Fund, Future Fund, and other private donors, with Emerson Spartz donating six figures annually.
This project would not fall under the scope of what the Future Fund granted us, so we will not be using their funding for this.
This is coming directly out of our operating budget, so we’re aiming to make payouts that have a higher counterfactual likelihood of impact.
Hi! Thanks for the questions.
I remember hearing that Emerson/Nonlinear invested quite a lot into crypto—presumably with the current markets, his/Nonlinear’s portfolio must’ve taken a hit?
Yes, most crypto people have taken a hit, including Emerson. As far as I know, he has no plans to slow down his donations to Nonlinear.
Secondly, Nonlinear received a Future Fund grant: https://ftxfuturefund.org/our-grants/?_search=nonlinear Are you potentially concerned about clawbacks to the money you hand out, especially if you’re dispersing small amounts to several people who could then be affected?
We’re not using Future Fund grant money for this. That being said, we are still gathering information, but based on our conversations with lawyers and distressed debt investors, we are not as concerned as some community members are about clawbacks, especially for very small grants. This may update in the future as more information comes out.
Also, will additional funders top you up, or will the money go directly to the people affected?
We have had several funders reach out to us. Still working out the details :)
I can see how you might think that, and thanks for sharing your thoughts.
My opinion is that the presumption of innocence is not just a legal principle, it is a foundational principle of most justice systems because one accusation can forever ruin someone’s reputation whether or not they are proven innocent in the future.
Accusations can draw a lot of attention, but retractions receive far less attention.
I believe it’s very important to be careful damaging someone’s reputation before hearing both sides because it’s really hard to repair it.
Additionally, it’s much harder to prove accusations wrong than it is to anonymously make them in the first place, so most cultures have immune reactions against anonymous accusations.
It’s also just bad epistemics to only hear one side. Every side always thinks they’re in the right, so if you only hear one side, it’s practically impossible to have good epistemics.
Good suggestion! Updated the description.
Getting legal counsel advice was always the intended procedure internally. Thanks for pointing out that the way I worded it had the potential to be misconstrued so I’ve updated it again :)
Thanks for the flag! Was already aware of this but added a qualifier in the post above and added this to our org payout guidelines for extra redundancy.
Ryan, glad you liked the prize, and thanks for your feedback! Our partner has significant IP law and branding experience and does not share your concerns.
His perspective: the general case is that
Celebrating our ancestors is common practice. Long-dead famous people frequently get things named after them.
Negative outcomes are unlikely. What you’re proposing could happen, but is quite an edge case.
Branding is important. A better-named prize can lead to more impact and improved community health.
So why are we calling this “The Truman Prize?” instead of something like “The Anonymous EA Award”?
There’s a reason why inspiring people from the past get things named after them. Could write a whole post on our thinking around this, but let’s just say we think having a community health prize with a more inspiring name would be more effective and lead to more impact.
Spending a lot of time on preventing low probability, low downside possibilities, is low EV.
Things like this usually end up being really bureaucratic and could take months or years to approve, so the cost is higher than a simple quick email. Following this general approach to low probability, low downside risks, would lead to it being prohibitive to get things done.
It’s low probability because first, a descendant of Truman would have to
Actually learn of this prize which is unlikely
Not feel like we are honoring Truman by celebrating anonymous altruism, which seems unlikely.
Care enough to actually ask us to change the name, which is also unlikely.
And in the unlikely event that all three of those things happen, then we’ll just change the name. Which is also low cost.
Great idea. If anyone wants to run a prize like this, I’d be open to funding it.
Longform CPMs for YouTube’s ad platform are roughly $3-10 for every 1,000 views.
I don’t really understand the CPM scaling between the length of videos. On my longest video of 40 minutes, I made roughly $7 per 1000 views. On my shortest video of 10 minutes, I made $4 per 1000 views. But that is just because Youtube shows more ads in that time. However, I’m not entirely sure how many ads they display per viewer per minute. I’m pretty sure the longer your content is the less ads they show per minute.
Sponsorships are usually 5-10x the ad CPM. So if you have a video that gets a million views, you could expect to make anywhere between $30-70k (but with wide error bars).
Shortform views are worth roughly 10-100x less on both ads and sponsorships.
It sounds pretty reasonable to me that a sponsorship on a longform video with 1 million views would convert more sales than a sponsorship on a shortform video with 100 million views.
Which is why you typically see almost every shortform creator struggling to break into longform, whereas longform creators can pretty easily make shorts without too much difficulty.