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NunoSempere

Karma: 13,234

I run Sentinel, a team that seeks to anticipate and respond to large-scale risks. You can read our weekly minutes here. I like to spend my time acquiring deeper models of the world, and generally becoming more formidable. I’m also a fairly good forecaster: I started out on predicting on Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell, but now do most of my forecasting through Samotsvety, of which Scott Alexander writes:

Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.


I used to post prolifically on the EA Forum, but nowadays, I post my research and thoughts at nunosempere.com /​ nunosempere.com/​blog rather than on this forum, because:

But a good fraction of my past research is still available here on the EA Forum. I’m particularly fond of my series on Estimating Value.


My career has been as follows:


You can share feedback anonymously with me here.

Note: You can sign up for all my posts here: <https://​​nunosempere.com/​​.newsletter/​​>, or subscribe to my posts’ RSS here: <https://​​nunosempere.com/​​blog/​​index.rss>

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Au­gust 2022.

NunoSempereSep 10, 2022, 8:59 AM
29 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempereSep 2, 2022, 9:37 AM
52 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempereAug 26, 2022, 10:03 AM
47 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

A con­cern about the “evolu­tion­ary an­chor” of Ajeya Co­tra’s re­port on AI timelines.

NunoSempereAug 16, 2022, 2:44 PM
75 points
40 comments5 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: July 2022

NunoSempereAug 8, 2022, 8:03 AM
30 points
0 comments14 min readEA link

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie GooenAug 4, 2022, 2:20 PM
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: June 2022

NunoSempereJul 12, 2022, 12:35 PM
49 points
4 comments9 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempereJun 16, 2022, 4:40 PM
303 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: May 2022

NunoSempereJun 3, 2022, 7:32 PM
31 points
5 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2022

NunoSempereMay 10, 2022, 4:40 PM
44 points
2 comments6 min readEA link

EA Fo­rum Low­down: April 2022

NunoSempereMay 1, 2022, 2:48 PM
154 points
8 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: March 2022

NunoSempereApr 5, 2022, 6:28 PM
21 points
3 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: April 2222

NunoSempereApr 1, 2022, 7:06 AM
28 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Valu­ing re­search works by elic­it­ing com­par­i­sons from EA researchers

NunoSempereMar 17, 2022, 7:58 PM
114 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Samotsvety Nu­clear Risk Fore­casts — March 2022

NunoSempereMar 10, 2022, 6:52 PM
155 points
54 comments6 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Fe­bru­ary 2022

NunoSempereMar 5, 2022, 7:16 PM
25 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempereFeb 18, 2022, 8:39 PM
95 points
8 comments12 min readEA link

We are giv­ing $10k as fore­cast­ing micro-grants

Misha_YagudinFeb 8, 2022, 12:20 PM
51 points
5 comments1 min readEA link

Split­ting the timeline as an ex­tinc­tion risk intervention

NunoSempereFeb 6, 2022, 7:59 PM
14 points
27 comments4 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Newslet­ter: Jan­uary 2022

NunoSempereFeb 3, 2022, 7:10 PM
16 points
1 comment6 min readEA link