I previously estimated that 1-2% of YCombinator-backed companies with valuations over $100M had serious allegations of fraud.
While not all Giving Pledge signatories are entrepreneurs, a large fraction are, which makes this a reasonable reference class. (An even better reference class would be “non-signatory billionaires”, of course.)
My guess is that YCombinator-backed founders tend to be young with shorter careers than pledgees, and in part because of this will likely have had fewer run-ins with the law. I think better reference class would be something like founders of Fortune 500/Fortune 100 companies.
>I’m mostly just noting that “altruistic people don’t commit crimes” doesn’t seem like a likely hypothesis.
I think your data is evidence in favor of a far more interesting conclusion.