This seems pretty neat, kudos for organizing all of this!
I haven’t read through the entire report. Is there any extrapolation based on market data or outreach? I see arguments about market actors not seeing to have close timelines, as the main argument that timelines are at least 30+ years out.
Extracting a full probability distribution from eg real interest rates requires multiple assumptions about eg GDP growth rates after TAI, so AFAIK nobody has done that exercise.
Yea, I assume the full version is impossible. But maybe there are at least some simpler statements that can be inferred? Like, “<10% of transformative AI by 2030.”
I’d be really curious to get a better read on what market specialists around this area (maybe select hedge fund teams around tech disruption?) would think.
I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
This seems pretty neat, kudos for organizing all of this!
I haven’t read through the entire report. Is there any extrapolation based on market data or outreach? I see arguments about market actors not seeing to have close timelines, as the main argument that timelines are at least 30+ years out.
Extracting a full probability distribution from eg real interest rates requires multiple assumptions about eg GDP growth rates after TAI, so AFAIK nobody has done that exercise.
Yea, I assume the full version is impossible. But maybe there are at least some simpler statements that can be inferred? Like, “<10% of transformative AI by 2030.”
I’d be really curious to get a better read on what market specialists around this area (maybe select hedge fund teams around tech disruption?) would think.
I don’t think it’s impossible—you could start from Harperin’s et al basic setup [1] and plug in some numbers about p doom, the long rate growth rate etc and get a market opinion.
I would also be interested in seeing the analysis of hedge fund experts and others. In our cursory lit review we didn’t come across any which was readily quantifiable (would love to learn if there is one!).
[1] https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or