The Doomsday Clock is the most prominent symbol of existential risk. While itās helped highlight the risks of nuclear war, itās misaligned with EA values in various ways:
It does not use quantified probabilities. ā100 seconds to midnightā has an ordinal relationship to ā90 seconds to midnightā but is not itself a prediction of anything.
It is fundamentally pessimistic. A doomsday clock implies an inevitable countdown. One can turn back the clock, but midnight still looms.
It focuses on nuclear war and climate change, whereas EAs tend to see more existential risk in AI.
With this in mind, I thought about what effective altruists would make as an alternative symbol if we got to choose the main symbol of existential risk. Then I made it. Check it out and let me know what you think, Iām hoping to promote it further. I also have open questions below.
Potential
The X-Risk Tree is a symbol of the branching possibilities facing humanity. Its primary audience are people concerned by global catastrophic risk but who feel unable to do anything about it. I think thereās a chunk of people in this situation, especially among environmentalists. The tree is intended to show that we can prune the branches of our future, that we have the agency to choose a path that avoids doom. Ideally it feels like an interactive display at a museum.
The numbers are sourced from Metaculusās Ragnarok series. I believe this is an important step up over the Doomsday Clockās non-quantified predictions. However, there are still issues with this approach, as Linch has pointed out.
Note that alternative predictions from EAs are included on the collections page.
Ongoing Questions
Would people enjoy being able to input data to generate a tree of their own predictions?
Would a sharing option for social media (image of tree and text of predictions) be useful?
I am not totally happy with the title. If you can convince me of a better one, I will provide a $100 bounty.
What could be high-leverage ways to promote it?
What could be done on the site to more thoroughly communicate the idea of āexistential risk is serious but we can work on itā?
Is there a better word than āsustenanceā for outcomes where humanity does not suffer a global catastrophe?
Interactively Visualizing X-Risk
Summary
Iāve built a site hosting an EA alternative to the Doomsday Clock.
Doom
The Doomsday Clock is the most prominent symbol of existential risk. While itās helped highlight the risks of nuclear war, itās misaligned with EA values in various ways:
It does not use quantified probabilities. ā100 seconds to midnightā has an ordinal relationship to ā90 seconds to midnightā but is not itself a prediction of anything.
It is fundamentally pessimistic. A doomsday clock implies an inevitable countdown. One can turn back the clock, but midnight still looms.
It focuses on nuclear war and climate change, whereas EAs tend to see more existential risk in AI.
With this in mind, I thought about what effective altruists would make as an alternative symbol if we got to choose the main symbol of existential risk. Then I made it. Check it out and let me know what you think, Iām hoping to promote it further. I also have open questions below.
Potential
The X-Risk Tree is a symbol of the branching possibilities facing humanity. Its primary audience are people concerned by global catastrophic risk but who feel unable to do anything about it. I think thereās a chunk of people in this situation, especially among environmentalists. The tree is intended to show that we can prune the branches of our future, that we have the agency to choose a path that avoids doom. Ideally it feels like an interactive display at a museum.
The numbers are sourced from Metaculusās Ragnarok series. I believe this is an important step up over the Doomsday Clockās non-quantified predictions. However, there are still issues with this approach, as Linch has pointed out.
Note that alternative predictions from EAs are included on the collections page.
Ongoing Questions
Would people enjoy being able to input data to generate a tree of their own predictions?
Would a sharing option for social media (image of tree and text of predictions) be useful?
I am not totally happy with the title. If you can convince me of a better one, I will provide a $100 bounty.
What could be high-leverage ways to promote it?
What could be done on the site to more thoroughly communicate the idea of āexistential risk is serious but we can work on itā?
Is there a better word than āsustenanceā for outcomes where humanity does not suffer a global catastrophe?
Credits
This was made possible by a Long-Term Future Fund grant.
Linchās feedback was very helpful.
MichaelAās Database of existential risk estimates was crucial for the Collections page.
By The Way!
Shameless plug: If you need a developer, I am currently working for work!