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It seems like you are indexing heavily on hubris. I think you should do the exercise of going through various historical examples that express a similar amount of hubris, and doing the Discord poll of those also. e.g., the creation of the USA; the rise of Hitler. With enough details changed that people can’t just recognize the example.
Not a bad idea! I’d love to try to actually test this hypothesis—my hunch is that it will do worse at prediction in most areas, but there may be some scenarios where thinking things through from a narrative perspective could provide otherwise hard-to-reach insight
Interesting experiment!
One argument against the predictive power of stories is that many stories evolved as cautionary tales. Which means that if they work, they will have zero predictive accuracy. Which would also possibly fit this particular scenario