In Grace et al., 2024, “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843), the surveyed researchers assigned a median ~5% likelihood to extremely bad outcomes like human extinction.
Can anyone recommend other recent surveys of AI researchers with a similar result?
I’m aware of Zhang et al., 2022, “Forecasting AI Progress” https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132 and Grace’s earlier survey (https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2022_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai), but these are both now a few years old, and I’m looking for something from 2024/2025.
Thanks!
Our 2024 survey results should be out soon.