Hmm, I wonder what we would bet on. There’s no official timeline or p(doom) of PauseAI, and our community is all over the map on that. Our case for you donating to pausing AI is not about exactly how imminently doom is upon us, but how much a grassroots movement would help in concentrating public sentiments and swaying crucial decisions by demanding safety and accountability.
My personal views on AI Doom (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LcJ7zoQWv3zDDYFmD/cutting-ai-safety-down-to-size) are not as doomy as Greg’s. I just still think this is the most important issue in the world at a lower chance of extinction or with a longer timelines, and that the crucial time to act is as soon as possible. I don’t think the timeline prediction is really the crux.
You could make a bet about whether PauseAI will have any salient successes, or otherwise be able to point to why it did achieve a reduction in existential risk of, say, half a basis point, in the next five years, according to an external judge such as myself.
No offense to forecasting, which is good and worthwhile, but I think trying to come with a bet in this case is a guaranteed time suck that will muddy the waters instead of clarifying them. There are very few crisp falsifiable hypotheses that also get at the cruxes of whether it’s better to donate to PauseAI or animal welfare given that that’s not already clear to Vasco that I think would make good bets unfortunately.
Thanks, Holly. If helpful, I am open to more deals like the one I did with Greg, although I suspect there are better options for you via loans.
Hmm, I wonder what we would bet on. There’s no official timeline or p(doom) of PauseAI, and our community is all over the map on that. Our case for you donating to pausing AI is not about exactly how imminently doom is upon us, but how much a grassroots movement would help in concentrating public sentiments and swaying crucial decisions by demanding safety and accountability.
My personal views on AI Doom (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LcJ7zoQWv3zDDYFmD/cutting-ai-safety-down-to-size) are not as doomy as Greg’s. I just still think this is the most important issue in the world at a lower chance of extinction or with a longer timelines, and that the crucial time to act is as soon as possible. I don’t think the timeline prediction is really the crux.
You could make a bet about whether PauseAI will have any salient successes, or otherwise be able to point to why it did achieve a reduction in existential risk of, say, half a basis point, in the next five years, according to an external judge such as myself.
No offense to forecasting, which is good and worthwhile, but I think trying to come with a bet in this case is a guaranteed time suck that will muddy the waters instead of clarifying them. There are very few crisp falsifiable hypotheses that also get at the cruxes of whether it’s better to donate to PauseAI or animal welfare given that that’s not already clear to Vasco that I think would make good bets unfortunately.
https://x.com/ilex_ulmus/status/1776724461636735244
That is a perspective you could inhabit, but it also seems contradictory with the vibe in “Hmm, I wonder what we would bet on”
Well if someone has a great suggestion that’s the objection it has to overcome