EA Hotel fundraiser 4: concrete outputs after 10 months

Due to pop­u­lar de­mand, we’re pub­lish­ing a list of con­crete out­puts that ho­tel res­i­dents have made dur­ing their stay.

Note that in­ter­pret­ing this list comes with some caveats:

  • While the out­put per dol­lar is very high, this might not be the best met­ric. As an in­tu­ition pump, con­sider that send­ing an EA to prison has a higher out­put/​$ ra­tio than the EA ho­tel, be­cause it’s free. The best met­ric would be marginal out­put di­vided by marginal out­put for a coun­ter­fac­tual dona­tion, but this is hard to es­ti­mate. As a proxy, we sug­gest look­ing at out­put per day per per­son. Does this seem high com­pared to an av­er­age EA?

  • This list doesn’t cover ev­ery­thing of value that has been sup­ported by the ho­tel. Some res­i­dents have spent months work­ing on things that they haven’t pub­lished yet. Some of them have spent most of their time do­ing self-ther­apy. Some of them have been read­ing books. Some of them have been hav­ing a lot of re­search con­ver­sa­tions. Some have been de­vel­op­ing pre­sen­ta­tions and work­shops. The ho­tel is in a unique po­si­tion to sup­port this kind of hard-to-ver­ify work.

Most of the data is in. We will keep an up to date ver­sion of this post live at ea­ho­tel.org/​out­puts.

To­tal ex­penses as of March 2019

Money: So far ~£66,500* has been spent on host­ing our res­i­dents, of which ~£7,600 was con­tributed by res­i­dents.

Time: ~4,000 per­son-days spent at the ho­tel.

Out­puts as of March 2019

Summary

  • The in­cu­ba­tion of three scal­able EA organisations

  • One on­line course produced

  • 29 posts on LessWrong and the EA Fo­rum (with a to­tal of ~1000 karma)

  • 4 EA re­treats hosted, 2 organised

  • 12 on­line courses followed

  • 2 in­tern­ships and 1 job earned at EA organisations

AI Safety related

Anony­mous 1:
One 3 month work trial earned at a promi­nent X-risk organisation

RAISE:
(con­text)
Nearly the en­tirety of this on­line course was cre­ated at the hotel

Linda Linse­fors:
Posts on the al­ign­ment fo­rum:
Op­ti­miza­tion Reg­u­lariza­tion through Time Penalty (12)
The Game The­ory of Black­mail (24)

Chris Leong:
“I’ve still got a few more posts on in­finity to write up, but here’s the posts I’ve made on LessWrong since ar­riv­ing [with es­ti­mates of how likely they were to be writ­ten had I not been at the ho­tel]:
Sum­mary: Sur­real De­ci­sions [50%] (27)
An Ex­ten­sive Cat­e­gori­sa­tion of In­finite Para­doxes [80%] (-4)
On Dis­in­ge­nu­ity [50%] (34)
On Ab­stract Sys­tems [50%] (14)
De­con­fus­ing Log­i­cal Coun­ter­fac­tu­als [75%] (18)
De­bate AI and the De­ci­sion to Re­lease an AI [90%] (8)

John Maxwell
Courses taken:
Im­prov­ing Your Statis­ti­cal In­fer­ences
MITx Prob­a­bil­i­ty
S­tatis­ti­cal Learn­ing
For­mal Soft­ware Ver­ifi­ca­tion
ARIMA Model­ing with R
In­tro­duc­tion to Recom­mender Sys­tem­s
Text Min­ing and An­a­lyt­ics
In­tro­duc­tion to Time Series Anal­y­sis
Re­gres­sion Models

Anony­mous 2:
Courses:
Prob­a­bil­is­tic Graph­i­cal Model­s
Model Think­ing
MITx Prob­a­bil­i­ty
LessWrong posts:
An­nihilat­ing aliens & Rare Earth sug­gest early filter (8)
Believ­ing oth­ers’ pri­ors (9)
AI de­vel­op­ment in­cen­tive gra­di­ents are not uniformly ter­rible (23)
EA Fo­rum post:
Should donor lot­tery win­ners write re­ports? (29)

Ra­tion­al­ity or com­mu­nity build­ing related

Re­treats hosted:

  • EA Lon­don Re­treats:
    Life Re­view Week­end (Aug. 24th – 27th)
    Ca­reers Week (Aug. 27th – 31st)
    Holi­day/​EA Un­con­fer­ence (Aug. 31st – Sept. 3rd)

  • EA Glas­gow (March 2019)

Denisa Pop:
Helped or­ganise the EA Values-to-Ac­tions Re­treat
Helped or­ganise the EA Com­mu­nity Health Unconference

Toon Alfrink
EA fo­rum posts:
EA is vet­ting-con­strained (96)
The Home Base of EA (12)
Task Y: rep­re­sent­ing EA in your field (11)
LessWrong posts:
We can all be high sta­tus (61)
The house­keeper (26)
What makes a good cul­ture? (30)

Matt Gold­en­berg
The en­tirety of Pro­ject Metis
Posts on LessWrong:
The 3 Books Tech­nique for Learn­ing a New Skill (125)
A Frame­work for In­ter­nal De­bug­ging (20)
S-Curves for Trend Fore­cast­ing (87)
What Vibing Feels Like (9)
How to Un­der­stand and Miti­gate Risk (47)

Global health related

Derek Foster: Pri­or­ity Set­ting in Health­care Through the Lens of Hap­piness – Chap­ter 3 of the 2019 Global Hap­piness and Well-Be­ing Policy Re­port pub­lished by the Global Hap­piness Coun­cil.
Hired as a re­search an­a­lyst for Re­think Pri­ori­ties.

An­i­mal welfare related

Max Carpen­dale:
Posts on the EA Fo­rum:
The Evolu­tion of Sen­tience as a Fac­tor in the Cam­brian Ex­plo­sion: Set­ting up the Ques­tion (28)
Sharks prob­a­bly do feel pain: a re­ply to Michael Tye and oth­ers (19)
Why I’m fo­cus­ing on in­ver­te­brate sen­tience (48)

Fred­erik Bech­told
Re­ceived an (un­paid) in­tern­ship at An­i­mal Ethics.

Saulius Šimčikas
Posts on the EA Fo­rum:
Ro­dents farmed for pet snake food (64)
Will com­pa­nies meet their an­i­mal welfare com­mit­ments? (109; win­ner of 3rd place EA Fo­rum Prize for Feb 2019)

Mag­nus Vind­ing
Why Altru­ists Should Per­haps Not Pri­ori­tize Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence: A Lengthy Cri­tique (Prob­a­bil­ity it would have been writ­ten oth­er­wise: 99 per­cent).
Re­vis­ing jour­nal pa­per for Between the Species. (Got feed­back and dis­cus­sion about it I couldn’t have had oth­er­wise; one re­viewer hap­pened to be a guest at the ho­tel.)
I got the idea to write the book I’m cur­rently writ­ing (“Suffer­ing-Fo­cused Ethics”) (50 per­cent)

Our Ask

Do you like this ini­ti­a­tive, and want to see it con­tinue for longer, on a more sta­ble foot­ing? Do you want to cheaply buy time spent work­ing full time on work re­lat­ing to EA, whilst si­mul­ta­neously fa­cil­i­tat­ing a thriv­ing EA com­mu­nity hub? Do you want to see more work in the same vein as the above? Then we would like to ask for your sup­port.

We are very low on run­way. Our cur­rent short­fall is ~£4k/​month from July on­ward.

To donate, please see our GoFundMe or PayPal Money Pool, or get in touch if you’d like to make a di­rect bank trans­fer (which will save ~3% on fees and up to 3% on cur­rency con­ver­sion if us­ing a ser­vice like Revolut or Trans­fer­wise).

If you’d like to give reg­u­lar sup­port, we also have a Pa­treon.

Pre­vi­ous posts in this se­ries:

Writ­ten by oth­ers:

*this is the to­tal cost of the pro­ject to date (30 March 2019), not in­clud­ing the pur­chase of the build­ing (£132,276.95 in­clud­ing build­ing sur­vey and con­veyanc­ing)