I was also surprised by how highly the EMH post was received, for a completely different reason – the fact that markets aren’t expecting AGI in the next few decades seems unbelievably obvious, even before we look at interest rates. If markets were expecting AGI, AI stocks would presumably be (much more, at least compared to non-AI stocks) to the moon than they are now, and market analysts would presumably (at least occasionally) cite the possibility of AGI as the reason why. But we weren’t seeing any of that, and we already knew from just general observation of the zeitgeist that, until a few months ago, the prospect of AGI was overwhelmingly not taken seriously outside of a few niche sub-communities and AI labs (how to address this reality has been a consistent, well-known hurdle within the AI safety community).
So I’m a little confused at what exactly judges thought was the value provided by the post – did they previously suspect that markets were taking AGI seriously, and this post significantly updated them towards thinking markets weren’t? Maybe instead judges thought that the post was valuable for some other reason unrelated to the main claim of “either reject EMH or reject AGI in the next few decades”, in which case I’d be curious to hear about what that reason is (e.g., if the post causes OP to borrow a bunch of money, that would be interesting to know).
Granted, it’s an interesting analysis, but that seems like a different question, and many of the other entries (including both those that did and didn’t win prizes) strike me as having advanced the discourse more, at least if we’re focusing on the main claims.
I think it’s important to verify theories that seem obvious by thinking about precise predictions the theories make. The AI and EMH post attempts to analyze precise predictions made by the theory that “the market doesn’t expect TAI soon”, and for that reason I think the post makes a valuable contribution.
That said, it is still unclear to me whether interest rates will actually rise as investors realize the potential for TAI. If news of TAI causes investors to become more optimistic about investment, potentially because of the promise of higher lifespans, or the fear of missing out on extreme relative wealth etc., that could easily cause a shift in the supply curve for loanable funds to the right, lowering the interest rate. This makes one of the central predictions in the post unreliable IMO, and that undermines the post’s thesis.
So, overall I agree with you that the market is not currently pricing in TAI, and like you I believe that for ordinary informal reasons, such as the fact that investors rarely talk about explosive growth in public. The post itself, however, while interesting, didn’t move my credences as much as the informal evidence.
I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.
I was also surprised by how highly the EMH post was received, for a completely different reason – the fact that markets aren’t expecting AGI in the next few decades seems unbelievably obvious, even before we look at interest rates. If markets were expecting AGI, AI stocks would presumably be (much more, at least compared to non-AI stocks) to the moon than they are now, and market analysts would presumably (at least occasionally) cite the possibility of AGI as the reason why. But we weren’t seeing any of that, and we already knew from just general observation of the zeitgeist that, until a few months ago, the prospect of AGI was overwhelmingly not taken seriously outside of a few niche sub-communities and AI labs (how to address this reality has been a consistent, well-known hurdle within the AI safety community).
So I’m a little confused at what exactly judges thought was the value provided by the post – did they previously suspect that markets were taking AGI seriously, and this post significantly updated them towards thinking markets weren’t? Maybe instead judges thought that the post was valuable for some other reason unrelated to the main claim of “either reject EMH or reject AGI in the next few decades”, in which case I’d be curious to hear about what that reason is (e.g., if the post causes OP to borrow a bunch of money, that would be interesting to know).
Granted, it’s an interesting analysis, but that seems like a different question, and many of the other entries (including both those that did and didn’t win prizes) strike me as having advanced the discourse more, at least if we’re focusing on the main claims.
I think it’s important to verify theories that seem obvious by thinking about precise predictions the theories make. The AI and EMH post attempts to analyze precise predictions made by the theory that “the market doesn’t expect TAI soon”, and for that reason I think the post makes a valuable contribution.
That said, it is still unclear to me whether interest rates will actually rise as investors realize the potential for TAI. If news of TAI causes investors to become more optimistic about investment, potentially because of the promise of higher lifespans, or the fear of missing out on extreme relative wealth etc., that could easily cause a shift in the supply curve for loanable funds to the right, lowering the interest rate. This makes one of the central predictions in the post unreliable IMO, and that undermines the post’s thesis.
So, overall I agree with you that the market is not currently pricing in TAI, and like you I believe that for ordinary informal reasons, such as the fact that investors rarely talk about explosive growth in public. The post itself, however, while interesting, didn’t move my credences as much as the informal evidence.
I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.