I expect (~ 75%) that the decision to “funnel” EAs into jobs at AI labs will become a contentious community issue in the next year. I think that over time more people will think it is a bad idea. This may have PR and funding consequences too.
I expect (~ 75%) that the decision to “funnel” EAs into jobs at AI labs will become a contentious community issue in the next year.
My understanding is that this has been a contentious issue for many years already.
80,000 hours wrote a response to this last year, Scott Alexander had written about it in 2022, and Anthropic split from OpenAI in 2021. Do you mean that you expect this to become significantly more salient in the next year?
Yeah my prediction lacked specificity. I expect it to become quite heated. I’m imagining 10+ posts on the topic next year with a total of 100+ comments. That’s just on the forum.
I’d probably bet against this happening FWIW. Maybe a Manifold market?
Also, 100+ comments on the forum might not mean it’s necessarily “heated”—a back and forth between two commenters can quickly increase the tally on any subject so that part might also need specifying further.
I spent about 30 seconds thinking about how to quantify my prediction. I’m trying to point at something vague in a concrete way but failing. This also means that I don’t think it is worth my time making it more concrete. The initial post was more of the “I am pretty confident this will be a community issue, just a heads up”.
I expect (~ 75%) that the decision to “funnel” EAs into jobs at AI labs will become a contentious community issue in the next year. I think that over time more people will think it is a bad idea. This may have PR and funding consequences too.
My understanding is that this has been a contentious issue for many years already.
80,000 hours wrote a response to this last year, Scott Alexander had written about it in 2022, and Anthropic split from OpenAI in 2021. Do you mean that you expect this to become significantly more salient in the next year?
Thanks for the reply Lorenzo! IMO it is going to look VERY weird seeing people continue to leave labs while EA fills the leaky bucket.
Yeah my prediction lacked specificity. I expect it to become quite heated. I’m imagining 10+ posts on the topic next year with a total of 100+ comments. That’s just on the forum.
I’d probably bet against this happening FWIW. Maybe a Manifold market?
Also, 100+ comments on the forum might not mean it’s necessarily “heated”—a back and forth between two commenters can quickly increase the tally on any subject so that part might also need specifying further.
I spent about 30 seconds thinking about how to quantify my prediction. I’m trying to point at something vague in a concrete way but failing. This also means that I don’t think it is worth my time making it more concrete. The initial post was more of the “I am pretty confident this will be a community issue, just a heads up”.
Seems reasonable :)