I expect (~ 75%) that the decision to āfunnelā EAs into jobs at AI labs will become a contentious community issue in the next year.
My understanding is that this has been a contentious issue for many years already.
80,000 hours wrote a response to this last year, Scott Alexander had written about it in 2022, and Anthropic split from OpenAI in 2021. Do you mean that you expect this to become significantly more salient in the next year?
Yeah my prediction lacked specificity. I expect it to become quite heated. Iām imagining 10+ posts on the topic next year with a total of 100+ comments. Thatās just on the forum.
Iād probably bet against this happening FWIW. Maybe a Manifold market?
Also, 100+ comments on the forum might not mean itās necessarily āheatedāāa back and forth between two commenters can quickly increase the tally on any subject so that part might also need specifying further.
I spent about 30 seconds thinking about how to quantify my prediction. Iām trying to point at something vague in a concrete way but failing. This also means that I donāt think it is worth my time making it more concrete. The initial post was more of the āI am pretty confident this will be a community issue, just a heads upā.
My understanding is that this has been a contentious issue for many years already.
80,000 hours wrote a response to this last year, Scott Alexander had written about it in 2022, and Anthropic split from OpenAI in 2021. Do you mean that you expect this to become significantly more salient in the next year?
Thanks for the reply Lorenzo! IMO it is going to look VERY weird seeing people continue to leave labs while EA fills the leaky bucket.
Yeah my prediction lacked specificity. I expect it to become quite heated. Iām imagining 10+ posts on the topic next year with a total of 100+ comments. Thatās just on the forum.
Iād probably bet against this happening FWIW. Maybe a Manifold market?
Also, 100+ comments on the forum might not mean itās necessarily āheatedāāa back and forth between two commenters can quickly increase the tally on any subject so that part might also need specifying further.
I spent about 30 seconds thinking about how to quantify my prediction. Iām trying to point at something vague in a concrete way but failing. This also means that I donāt think it is worth my time making it more concrete. The initial post was more of the āI am pretty confident this will be a community issue, just a heads upā.
Seems reasonable :)