The bet was resolved with 6 yes votes, and 4 no votes, which means a victory for Carl Shulman. I will be sending Carl $10, as per our initial agreement.
I should note that this provided the maximum possible evidence for Oliver’s hypothesis given that outcome, and that as a result I update in his direction (although less so because of the small sample).
Why do people keep betting against Carl Shulman???
No shame if you lose, so much glory if you win
I wasn’t super-confident, and so far it looks neck-and-neck (albeit on a smaller and noisier dataset than we had hoped for, 10 instead of 20).
Any outcome yet?
And the results are in!
The bet was resolved with 6 yes votes, and 4 no votes, which means a victory for Carl Shulman. I will be sending Carl $10, as per our initial agreement.
I should note that this provided the maximum possible evidence for Oliver’s hypothesis given that outcome, and that as a result I update in his direction (although less so because of the small sample).
We had 8⁄10 responses, and just sent out messages to another batch to get the last two responses. Should be resolved soon.