The bet was resolved with 6 yes votes, and 4 no votes, which means a victory for Carl Shulman. I will be sending Carl $10, as per our initial agreement.
I should note that this provided the maximum possible evidence for Oliver’s hypothesis given that outcome, and that as a result I update in his direction (although less so because of the small sample).
I wasn’t super-confident, and so far it looks neck-and-neck (albeit on a smaller and noisier dataset than we had hoped for, 10 instead of 20).
Any outcome yet?
And the results are in!
The bet was resolved with 6 yes votes, and 4 no votes, which means a victory for Carl Shulman. I will be sending Carl $10, as per our initial agreement.
I should note that this provided the maximum possible evidence for Oliver’s hypothesis given that outcome, and that as a result I update in his direction (although less so because of the small sample).
We had 8⁄10 responses, and just sent out messages to another batch to get the last two responses. Should be resolved soon.