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A more relevant curve for nuclear weapons might be “TNT equivalents” or “cost per ton TNT equivalent”.

This is mostly a problem with an example you use. I’m not sure whether it points to an underlying issue of your premise:

You link to the exponential growth of transistor density. But that growth is really restricted to just that: transistor density. Growing your number of transistors doesn’t necessarily grow your capability to compute things you care about, both from a theoretical perspective (potential fundamental limits in the theory of computation) as well as a practical perspective (our general inability to write code that makes use of much circuitry at the same time + the need for dark silicon + Wirth’s law). Other numbers, like FLOP/​s, don’t necessarily mean what you’d think either.

Moore’s law does not posit exponential growth in amount of “compute”. It is not clear that the exponential growth of transistor density translates to exponential growth of any quantity you’d actually care about. I think it is rather speculative to assume it does and even more so to assume it will continue to.

Very interesting—you might be interested in my recent post on Corporate GCRs, where I make a similar argument.