[Question] Should Open Philanthropy build detailed quantitative models which estimate global catastrophic risk?

[Vasco Grilo🔸]

Open Philanthropy has spent 828 M 2022-$ in its grantmaking portfolio of global catastrophic risks^[1] (GCRs). However, it has not yet published any detailed quantitative models which estimate GCRs (relatedly), which I believe would be important to inform both efforts to mitigate them and cause prioritisation. I am thinking about models like Tom Davidson’s, which estimates AI takeoff speeds, but outputting the probability of a given annual loss of population or drop in real gross domestic product.

1. ^

   According to Open Philanthropy’s grants database on 17 February 2024, accounting for the focus areas of “Biosecurity & Pandemic Preparedness”, “Forecasting”, “Global Catastrophic Risks”, “Global Catastrophic Risks Capacity Building”, and “Potential Risks from Advanced AI”.