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AI takeoff

TagLast edit: 16 Mar 2022 17:42 UTC by Pablo

AI takeoff is a hypothesized period of transition during which an advanced artificial intelligence acquires superhuman intellectual capacity.

Further reading

Barnett, Matthew (2020) Distinguishing definitions of takeoff, AI Alignment Forum, February 13.
A compendium of explicit definitions of ‘AI takeoff’.

Christiano, Paul (2018) Takeoff speeds, The Sideways View, February 24.

Related entries

artificial intelligence | decisive strategic advantage | superintelligence

What a com­pute-cen­tric frame­work says about AI take­off speeds

Tom_Davidson23 Jan 2023 4:09 UTC
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Ex­po­nen­tial AI take­off is a myth

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Evolu­tion pro­vides no ev­i­dence for the sharp left turn

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AGI Take­off dy­nam­ics—In­tel­li­gence vs Quan­tity ex­plo­sion

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Con­tin­u­ous doesn’t mean slow

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“Hereti­cal Thoughts on AI” by Eli Dourado

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Cy­borg Pe­ri­ods: There will be mul­ti­ple AI transitions

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Sum­mary: Against the sin­gu­lar­ity hypothesis

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Vignettes Work­shop (AI Im­pacts)

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Con­ti­nu­ity Assumptions

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How quickly AI could trans­form the world (Tom David­son on The 80,000 Hours Pod­cast)

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Fu­ture Mat­ters #8: Bing Chat, AI labs on safety, and paus­ing Fu­ture Matters

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AI im­pacts and Paul Chris­ti­ano on take­off speeds

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Shul­man and Yud­kowsky on AI progress

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Why I think AI take-off is rel­a­tively slow

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Take­off speeds pre­sen­ta­tion at Anthropic

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Yud­kowsky and Chris­ti­ano dis­cuss “Take­off Speeds”

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42 points
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AI Could Defeat All Of Us Combined

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AI safety tax dynamics

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What role should evolu­tion­ary analo­gies play in un­der­stand­ing AI take­off speeds?

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What are the differ­ences be­tween a sin­gu­lar­ity, an in­tel­li­gence ex­plo­sion, and a hard take­off?

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Ori­ent­ing to 3 year AGI timelines

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We don’t un­der­stand what hap­pened with cul­ture enough

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The Inequal­ity We Might Want: Merit-Based Redis­tri­bu­tion for the AI Transition

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12 points
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A Cri­tique of AI Takeover Scenarios

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Yud­kowsky and Soares’ Book Is Empty

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The V&V method—A step to­wards safer AGI

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Spec­u­lat­ing on Se­cret In­tel­li­gence Explosions

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21 points
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The Khay­ali Pro­to­col

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−8 points
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Power laws in Speedrun­ning and Ma­chine Learning

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48 points
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3 points
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Is any­one else also get­ting more wor­ried about hard take­off AGI sce­nar­ios?

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19 points
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The case for multi-decade timelines [Linkpost]

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50 points
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When will AI au­to­mate all men­tal work, and how fast?

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10 points
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3 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

#217 – The most im­por­tant graph in AI right now (Beth Barnes on The 80,000 Hours Pod­cast)

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16 points
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Bet­ter than log­a­r­ith­mic re­turns to rea­son­ing?

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6 points
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15 points
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The In­dus­trial Explosion

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39 points
1 comment15 min readEA link
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Will the Need to Re­train AI Models from Scratch Block a Soft­ware In­tel­li­gence Ex­plo­sion?

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12 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
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Are We Ready for Digi­tal Per­sons?

Alex (Αλέξανδρος)3 Jun 2025 9:38 UTC
3 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
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Me­tac­u­lus Pre­dicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

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27 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

Why I think it’s im­por­tant to work on AI forecasting

Matthew_Barnett27 Feb 2023 21:24 UTC
179 points
10 comments10 min readEA link

How quick and big would a soft­ware in­tel­li­gence ex­plo­sion be?

Tom_Davidson5 Aug 2025 15:47 UTC
12 points
2 comments34 min readEA link

As­ter­isk Magaz­ine Is­sue 03: AI

alejandro24 Jul 2023 15:53 UTC
34 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
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AGI Bat­tle Royale: Why “slow takeover” sce­nar­ios de­volve into a chaotic multi-AGI fight to the death

titotal22 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC
55 points
12 comments15 min readEA link

AI Risk: Can We Thread the Nee­dle? [Recorded Talk from EA Sum­mit Van­cou­ver ’25]

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8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
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