The ideas behind patient altruism have received substantial discussion in academia:
The basic theory of optimal consumption was developed by Frank Ramsey in 1928 and there is a lot of relevant literature.
The concept of using low discount rates when making present vs. future tradeoffs was used in an applied context at least as long ago as 2007, in the Stern review of climate change.
But this literature doesn’t seem well-known among EAs. I personally didn’t know about any of it until Phil Trammell cited some of it in his paper on patient philanthropy. Trammell also argued that most people use too high a discount rate, so patient philanthropists should compensate by not donating any money; as far as I know, this is a novel argument.
Trammell also argued that most people use too high a discount rate, so patient philanthropists should compensate by not donating any money; as far as I know, this is a novel argument.
This has been much discussed from before the beginning of EA, Robin Hanson being a particularly devoted proponent.
Hanson has advocated for investing for future giving, and I don’t doubt he had this intuition in mind. But I’m actually not aware of any source in which he says that the condition under which zero-time-preference philanthropists should invest for future giving is that the interest rate incorporates beneficiaries’ pure time preference. I only know that he’s said that the relevant condition is when the interest rate is (a) positive or (b) higher than the growth rate. Do you have a particular source in mind?
Also, who made the “pure time preference in the interest rate means patient philanthropists should invest” point pre-Hanson? (Not trying to get credit for being the first to come up with this really basic idea, I just want to know whom to read/cite!)
I don’t know the provenance of the idea, but I recall Paul Christiano making the point about pure time preference during the debate on giving now vs later at the ?2014 GWWC weekend away.
My recollection is that back in 2008-12 discussions would often cite the Stern Review, which reduced pure time preference to 0.1% per year, and thus concluded massive climate investments would pay off, the critiques of it noting that it would by the same token call for immense savings rates (97.5% according to Dasgupta 2006), and the defenses by Stern and various philosophers that pure time preference of 0 was philosophically appropriate.
In private discussions and correspondence it was used to make the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save. I cited it for this in this 2012 blog post. People also discussed how this would go away if sufficient investment was applied patiently (whether for altruistic or other reasons), ending the era of dreamtime finance by driving pure time preference towards zero.
The post cites the Stern discussion to make the point that (non-discounted) utilitarian policymakers would implement more investment, but to my mind that’s quite different from the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save. Utilitarian policymakers might implement more redistribution too. Given policymakers as they are, we’re still left with the question of how utilitarian philanthropists with their fixed budgets should prioritize between filling the redistribution gap and filling the investment gap.
In any event, if you/Owen have any more unpublished pre-2015 insights from private correspondence, please consider posting them, so those of us who weren’t there don’t have to go through the bother of rediscovering them. : )
“The post cites the Stern discussion to make the point that (non-discounted) utilitarian policymakers would implement more investment, but to my mind that’s quite different from the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save.”
That was explicitly discussed at the time. I cited the blog post as a historical reference illustrating that such considerations were in mind, not as a comprehensive publication of everything people discussed at the time, when in fact there wasn’t one. That’s one reason, in addition to your novel contributions, I’m so happy about your work! GPI also has a big hopper of projects adding a lot of value by further developing and explicating ideas that are not radically novel so that they have more impact and get more improvement and critical feedback.
If you would like to do further recorded discussions about your research, I’m happy to do so anytime.
That post just makes the claim that “all we really need are positive interest rates”. My own point which you were referring to in the original comment is that, at least in the context of poverty alleviation (/increasing human consumption more generally), what we need is pure time preference incorporated into interest rates. This condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for positive interest rates.
Hanson’s post then says something which sounds kind of like my point, namely that we can infer that it’s better for us as philanthropists to invest than to spend if we see our beneficiaries doing some of both. But I could never figure out what he was saying exactly, or how it was compatible with the point he was trying to make that all we really need are positive interest rates.
The ideas behind patient altruism have received substantial discussion in academia:
The basic theory of optimal consumption was developed by Frank Ramsey in 1928 and there is a lot of relevant literature.
The concept of using low discount rates when making present vs. future tradeoffs was used in an applied context at least as long ago as 2007, in the Stern review of climate change.
The idea of postponing spending was discussed in “Discounting and the Paradox of the Infinitely Postponed Splurge” and other related literature.
But this literature doesn’t seem well-known among EAs. I personally didn’t know about any of it until Phil Trammell cited some of it in his paper on patient philanthropy. Trammell also argued that most people use too high a discount rate, so patient philanthropists should compensate by not donating any money; as far as I know, this is a novel argument.
This has been much discussed from before the beginning of EA, Robin Hanson being a particularly devoted proponent.
Hanson has advocated for investing for future giving, and I don’t doubt he had this intuition in mind. But I’m actually not aware of any source in which he says that the condition under which zero-time-preference philanthropists should invest for future giving is that the interest rate incorporates beneficiaries’ pure time preference. I only know that he’s said that the relevant condition is when the interest rate is (a) positive or (b) higher than the growth rate. Do you have a particular source in mind?
Also, who made the “pure time preference in the interest rate means patient philanthropists should invest” point pre-Hanson? (Not trying to get credit for being the first to come up with this really basic idea, I just want to know whom to read/cite!)
I don’t know the provenance of the idea, but I recall Paul Christiano making the point about pure time preference during the debate on giving now vs later at the ?2014 GWWC weekend away.
My recollection is that back in 2008-12 discussions would often cite the Stern Review, which reduced pure time preference to 0.1% per year, and thus concluded massive climate investments would pay off, the critiques of it noting that it would by the same token call for immense savings rates (97.5% according to Dasgupta 2006), and the defenses by Stern and various philosophers that pure time preference of 0 was philosophically appropriate.
In private discussions and correspondence it was used to make the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save. I cited it for this in this 2012 blog post. People also discussed how this would go away if sufficient investment was applied patiently (whether for altruistic or other reasons), ending the era of dreamtime finance by driving pure time preference towards zero.
Sorry—maybe I’m being blind, but I’m not seeing what citation you’d be referring to in that blog post. Where should I be looking?
The Stern discussion.
The post cites the Stern discussion to make the point that (non-discounted) utilitarian policymakers would implement more investment, but to my mind that’s quite different from the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save. Utilitarian policymakers might implement more redistribution too. Given policymakers as they are, we’re still left with the question of how utilitarian philanthropists with their fixed budgets should prioritize between filling the redistribution gap and filling the investment gap.
In any event, if you/Owen have any more unpublished pre-2015 insights from private correspondence, please consider posting them, so those of us who weren’t there don’t have to go through the bother of rediscovering them. : )
“The post cites the Stern discussion to make the point that (non-discounted) utilitarian policymakers would implement more investment, but to my mind that’s quite different from the point that absent cosmically exceptional short-term impact the patient longtermist consequentialist would save.”
That was explicitly discussed at the time. I cited the blog post as a historical reference illustrating that such considerations were in mind, not as a comprehensive publication of everything people discussed at the time, when in fact there wasn’t one. That’s one reason, in addition to your novel contributions, I’m so happy about your work! GPI also has a big hopper of projects adding a lot of value by further developing and explicating ideas that are not radically novel so that they have more impact and get more improvement and critical feedback.
If you would like to do further recorded discussions about your research, I’m happy to do so anytime.
Thanks! No need to inflict another recording of my voice on the world for now, I think, but glad to hear you like how the project coming.
It seems you’re right. I did a little searching and found Hanson making that argument here: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2013/04/more-now-means-less-later.html
That post just makes the claim that “all we really need are positive interest rates”. My own point which you were referring to in the original comment is that, at least in the context of poverty alleviation (/increasing human consumption more generally), what we need is pure time preference incorporated into interest rates. This condition is neither necessary nor sufficient for positive interest rates.
Hanson’s post then says something which sounds kind of like my point, namely that we can infer that it’s better for us as philanthropists to invest than to spend if we see our beneficiaries doing some of both. But I could never figure out what he was saying exactly, or how it was compatible with the point he was trying to make that all we really need are positive interest rates.
Could you elaborate?