Quick Polls on AI Timelines

[Denkenberger🔸]

I think it would be useful to get a feel for Forum users’ AI timelines. There are three questions, two of which are designed to align with questions on a LessWrong survey (from 2023). They are roughly year of artificial general intelligence, singularity (variously defined as cannot predict beyond, super exponential or explosive growth of the economy, etc.), and “crazy.” Feel free to define “crazy” as you wish, but some possibilities could be greater than 20% unemployment in most countries, widespread political unrest, widespread loss of confidence in what is true, widespread economic growth exceeding 10% per year^[1], your personal plans being disrupted by something related to AI, etc. It would be interesting to see in the comments how people define this. Please use the median year of your distribution (an even chance of happening before or after).
There are 21 locations on each poll, and they correspond to these years (if you comment, it would be helpful for you to put the year in, as the automatic description is not very helpful):

1. 2026

2. 2027

3. 2028

4. 2029

5. 2030

6. 2032

7. 2035

8. 2037

9. 2040

10. 2045

11. 2050 (the middle of the poll range)

12. 2060

13. 2070

14. 2080

15. 2100

16. 2125

17. 2150

18. 2200

19. 2300

20. later

21. never

By what year do you think AI will be able to do intellectual tasks that expert humans currently do?

By what year do you think the singularity will occur?

By what year do you think the world will get crazy?

1. ^

   Not recovering from a recession.