RSS

Quan­tified Uncer­tainty Re­search Institute

TagLast edit: Nov 3, 2022, 4:57 PM by brook

The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) is a nonprofit set up to study forecasting and epistemics. QURI was founded in 2019.

Funding

As of June 2022, QURI has received over $650,000 in funding from the Survival and Flourishing Fund,[1][2] and $200,000 from the Future Fund.[3]

External links

Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute. Official website.

Related Entries

squiggle | guesstimate

  1. ^

    Survival and Flourishing Fund (2019) SFF-2020-H1 S-process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

  2. ^

    Survival and Flourishing Fund (2021) SFF-2022-H1 S-Process recommendations announcement, Survival and Flourishing Fund.

  3. ^

    Future Fund (2022) Our grants and investments: QURI, Future Fund.

Shal­low eval­u­a­tions of longter­mist organizations

NunoSempereJun 24, 2021, 3:31 PM
192 points
34 comments34 min readEA link

Valu­ing re­search works by elic­it­ing com­par­i­sons from EA researchers

NunoSempereMar 17, 2022, 7:58 PM
114 points
22 comments8 min readEA link

Who is Un­com­fortable Cri­tiquing Who, Around EA?

Ozzie GooenFeb 24, 2023, 5:55 AM
150 points
15 comments11 min readEA link

Ac­cu­racy Agree­ments: A Flex­ible Alter­na­tive to Pre­dic­tion Markets

Ozzie GooenApr 20, 2023, 3:09 AM
37 points
5 comments4 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Win­ners of the Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion and 80,000 Hours Quan­tifi­ca­tion Challenges

NunoSempereMar 8, 2023, 1:03 AM
62 points
6 comments5 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Candidates

NunoSempereDec 25, 2020, 4:34 PM
282 points
71 comments47 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Value Func­tions: A Flex­ible New For­mat for Value Estimation

Ozzie GooenMay 18, 2023, 4:39 PM
58 points
23 comments18 min readEA link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie GooenOct 18, 2021, 10:22 PM
88 points
34 comments5 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Squig­gle AI

Ozzie GooenJan 3, 2025, 5:53 PM
82 points
13 comments8 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle: Early Access

Ozzie GooenAug 3, 2022, 12:23 AM
147 points
11 comments7 min readEA link

Sim­ple es­ti­ma­tion ex­am­ples in Squiggle

NunoSempereSep 2, 2022, 9:37 AM
52 points
13 comments7 min readEA link

Five steps for quan­tify­ing spec­u­la­tive interventions

NunoSempereFeb 18, 2022, 8:39 PM
95 points
8 comments12 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive val­ues for an­i­mal suffer­ing and ACE Top Charities

NunoSempereMay 30, 2023, 4:37 PM
33 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

$1,000 Squig­gle Ex­per­i­men­ta­tion Challenge

Ozzie GooenAug 4, 2022, 2:20 PM
61 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

2018-2019 Long-Term Fu­ture Fund Gran­tees: How did they do?

NunoSempereJun 16, 2021, 5:31 PM
194 points
23 comments5 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment elic­it­ing rel­a­tive es­ti­mates for Open Philan­thropy’s 2018 AI safety grants

NunoSempereSep 12, 2022, 11:19 AM
111 points
16 comments13 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing the Value of Evaluations

ElizabethJan 10, 2021, 10:59 PM
23 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

$300 Fermi Model Competition

Ozzie GooenFeb 3, 2025, 7:47 PM
32 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­tion to Fermi estimates

NunoSempereAug 26, 2022, 10:03 AM
47 points
8 comments7 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Sim­ple com­par­i­son pol­ling to cre­ate util­ity functions

NunoSempereNov 15, 2021, 7:48 PM
46 points
13 comments6 min readEA link

Big List of Cause Can­di­dates: Jan­uary 2021–March 2022 update

LeoApr 30, 2022, 5:21 PM
123 points
18 comments19 min readEA link

Why don’t gov­ern­ments seem to mind that com­pa­nies are ex­plic­itly try­ing to make AGIs?

Ozzie GooenDec 23, 2021, 7:08 AM
82 points
49 comments2 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell’s GiveDirectly Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analysis

SamNolanMay 27, 2022, 3:10 AM
130 points
19 comments6 min readEA link

Con­tri­bu­tion-Ad­justed Utility Max­i­miza­tion Funds: An Early Proposal

Ozzie GooenAug 3, 2021, 11:01 PM
14 points
4 comments12 min readEA link

Brief eval­u­a­tions of top-10 billionnaires

NunoSempereOct 21, 2022, 3:29 PM
81 points
66 comments6 min readEA link

Disagree­ables and Asses­sors: Two In­tel­lec­tual Archetypes

Ozzie GooenNov 5, 2021, 9:01 AM
91 points
20 comments3 min readEA link

A Crit­i­cal Re­view of Open Philan­thropy’s Bet On Crim­i­nal Jus­tice Reform

NunoSempereJun 16, 2022, 4:40 PM
303 points
97 comments26 min readEA link

Build­ing Blocks of Utility Maximization

NunoSempereSep 20, 2021, 5:23 PM
21 points
3 comments8 min readEA link

A Fun­nel for Cause Candidates

NunoSempereJan 13, 2021, 7:45 PM
34 points
24 comments3 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing the Fore­cast­ing In­no­va­tion Prize

Ozzie GooenNov 15, 2020, 9:21 PM
64 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempereMar 7, 2021, 7:03 PM
132 points
17 comments4 min readEA link

[Question] What should the norms around pri­vacy and eval­u­a­tion in the EA com­mu­nity be?

NunoSempereJun 16, 2021, 5:31 PM
66 points
17 comments1 min readEA link

An es­ti­mate of the value of Me­tac­u­lus questions

NunoSempereOct 22, 2021, 5:45 PM
45 points
19 comments8 min readEA link

What are good rubrics or rubric el­e­ments to eval­u­ate and pre­dict im­pact?

NunoSempereDec 3, 2020, 9:52 PM
24 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

$5k challenge to quan­tify the im­pact of 80,000 hours’ top ca­reer paths

NunoSempereSep 23, 2022, 11:32 AM
126 points
14 comments6 min readEA link

Can/​should we au­to­mate most hu­man de­ci­sions, pre-AGI?

Ozzie GooenDec 26, 2021, 1:37 AM
25 points
8 comments5 min readEA link

Pre­dict­ing the Value of Small Altru­is­tic Pro­jects: A Proof of Con­cept Ex­per­i­ment.

NunoSempereNov 22, 2020, 8:07 PM
62 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Misha Yagudin and Ozzie Gooen Dis­cuss LLMs and Effec­tive Altruism

Ozzie GooenJan 6, 2023, 10:59 PM
47 points
3 comments14 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

14 Ways ML Could Im­prove In­for­ma­tive Video

Ozzie GooenJan 10, 2023, 1:53 PM
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Can GPT-3 pro­duce new ideas? Par­tially au­tomat­ing Robin Han­son and others

NunoSempereJan 16, 2023, 3:05 PM
82 points
6 comments10 min readEA link

EA could use bet­ter in­ter­nal com­mu­ni­ca­tions infrastructure

Ozzie GooenJan 12, 2023, 1:07 AM
67 points
11 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Why does Academia+EA pro­duce so few on­line videos?

Ozzie GooenJan 10, 2023, 1:49 PM
24 points
6 comments2 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

An in-progress ex­per­i­ment to test how Laplace’s rule of suc­ces­sion performs in prac­tice.

NunoSempereJan 30, 2023, 5:41 PM
57 points
11 comments3 min readEA link

Eli Lifland on Nav­i­gat­ing the AI Align­ment Landscape

Ozzie GooenFeb 1, 2023, 12:07 AM
48 points
9 comments31 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Straight­for­wardly elic­it­ing prob­a­bil­ities from GPT-3

NunoSempereFeb 9, 2023, 7:25 PM
41 points
5 comments4 min readEA link

Select Challenges with Crit­i­cism & Eval­u­a­tion Around EA

Ozzie GooenFeb 10, 2023, 11:36 PM
111 points
5 comments6 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

My highly per­sonal skep­ti­cism brain­dump on ex­is­ten­tial risk from ar­tifi­cial in­tel­li­gence.

NunoSempereJan 23, 2023, 8:08 PM
436 points
116 comments14 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

A Sketch of AI-Driven Epistemic Lock-In

Ozzie GooenMar 5, 2025, 10:40 PM
13 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Prize Results

NunoSempereFeb 19, 2021, 7:07 PM
44 points
4 comments6 min readEA link

Open Com­mu­ni­ca­tion in the Days of Mal­i­cious On­line Actors

Ozzie GooenOct 6, 2020, 11:57 PM
38 points
10 comments7 min readEA link

Five slightly more hard­core Squig­gle mod­els.

NunoSempereOct 10, 2022, 2:42 PM
33 points
0 comments7 min readEA link

In­cen­tive Prob­lems With Cur­rent Fore­cast­ing Com­pe­ti­tions.

alex lawsenNov 10, 2020, 9:40 PM
56 points
11 comments5 min readEA link

An ex­per­i­ment to eval­u­ate the value of one re­searcher’s work

NunoSempereDec 1, 2020, 9:01 AM
57 points
23 comments10 min readEA link

Im­prove del­e­ga­tion abil­ities to­day, del­e­gate heav­ily tomorrow

Ozzie GooenNov 11, 2021, 9:52 PM
58 points
11 comments2 min readEA link

Rel­a­tive Im­pact of the First 10 EA Fo­rum Prize Winners

NunoSempereMar 16, 2021, 5:11 PM
88 points
35 comments18 min readEA link

13 Very Differ­ent Stances on AGI

Ozzie GooenDec 27, 2021, 11:30 PM
84 points
23 comments3 min readEA link

Track­ing the money flows in forecasting

NunoSempereNov 9, 2022, 4:10 PM
76 points
5 comments10 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Am­bi­tious Altru­is­tic Soft­ware Eng­ineer­ing Efforts: Op­por­tu­ni­ties and Benefits

Ozzie GooenNov 17, 2021, 6:12 PM
109 points
31 comments9 min readEA link

Do­ing Good Badly? - Michael Plant’s the­sis, Chap­ters 5,6 on Cause Pri­ori­ti­za­tion

EdoAradMar 4, 2021, 4:57 PM
75 points
16 comments7 min readEA link

Ex­ter­nal Eval­u­a­tion of the EA Wiki

NunoSempereDec 13, 2021, 5:09 PM
78 points
18 comments19 min readEA link

EA/​Ra­tion­al­ist Safety Nets: Promis­ing, but Arduous

Ozzie GooenDec 29, 2021, 6:41 PM
69 points
36 comments4 min readEA link

Op­por­tu­nity Costs of Tech­ni­cal Ta­lent: In­tu­ition and (Sim­ple) Implications

Ozzie GooenNov 19, 2021, 3:04 PM
53 points
7 comments4 min readEA link

Flimsy Pet The­o­ries, Enor­mous Initiatives

Ozzie GooenDec 9, 2021, 3:10 PM
212 points
57 comments4 min readEA link

6 (Po­ten­tial) Mis­con­cep­tions about AI Intellectuals

Ozzie GooenFeb 14, 2025, 11:51 PM
30 points
2 comments12 min readEA link

AI for Re­solv­ing Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions: An Early Exploration

Ozzie GooenJan 16, 2025, 9:40 PM
21 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Squig­gle Hub

Ozzie GooenAug 5, 2023, 12:55 AM
131 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Path­ways to im­pact for fore­cast­ing and evaluation

NunoSempereNov 25, 2021, 5:59 PM
29 points
16 comments2 min readEA link

Owain Evans on LLMs, Truth­ful AI, AI Com­po­si­tion, and More

Ozzie GooenMay 2, 2023, 1:20 AM
21 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

Think­ing of Con­ve­nience as an Eco­nomic Term

Ozzie GooenMay 5, 2023, 7:09 PM
28 points
5 comments12 min readEA link

A flaw in a sim­ple ver­sion of wor­ld­view diversification

NunoSempereMay 15, 2023, 6:12 PM
45 points
22 comments6 min readEA link
(nunosempere.com)

Us­ing Points to Rate Differ­ent Kinds of Evidence

Ozzie GooenAug 25, 2023, 7:26 PM
33 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Open Tech­ni­cal Challenges around Prob­a­bil­is­tic Pro­grams and Javascript

Ozzie GooenAug 26, 2023, 2:04 AM
39 points
3 comments6 min readEA link

“Full Au­toma­tion” is a Slip­pery Metric

Ozzie GooenJun 11, 2024, 7:53 PM
20 points
1 comment2 min readEA link

Pa­trick Gruban on Effec­tive Altru­ism Ger­many and Non­profit Boards in EA

Ozzie GooenMay 5, 2023, 5:23 PM
42 points
2 comments45 min readEA link
(quri.substack.com)

LLM-Se­cured Sys­tems: A Gen­eral-Pur­pose Tool For Struc­tured Transparency

Ozzie GooenJun 18, 2024, 12:20 AM
36 points
1 comment21 min readEA link

Distinc­tions when Dis­cussing Utility Functions

Ozzie GooenMar 8, 2024, 6:43 PM
15 points
5 comments8 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Is Fore­cast­ing a Promis­ing EA Cause Area?

Ozzie GooenMar 25, 2024, 8:36 PM
29 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie GooenJun 26, 2024, 12:40 AM
46 points
7 comments24 min readEA link

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie GooenMay 21, 2024, 4:09 AM
46 points
8 comments8 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie GooenMay 22, 2024, 9:49 PM
36 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Ideas for Next-Gen­er­a­tion Writ­ing Plat­forms, us­ing LLMs

Ozzie GooenJun 4, 2024, 6:40 PM
17 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

A Case for Su­per­hu­man Gover­nance, us­ing AI

Ozzie GooenJun 7, 2024, 12:10 AM
57 points
26 comments10 min readEA link

En­hanc­ing Math­e­mat­i­cal Model­ing with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

Ozzie GooenOct 28, 2024, 9:37 PM
11 points
3 comments15 min readEA link

Quan­tify­ing Uncer­tainty in GiveWell Cost-Effec­tive­ness Analyses

SamNolanOct 31, 2022, 2:31 PM
118 points
7 comments20 min readEA link
(observablehq.com)

Value of In­fo­ma­tion, an ex­am­ple with GiveDirectly

SamNolanAug 30, 2022, 8:37 PM
12 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Con­ver­sa­tion on fore­cast­ing with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen

terraformJul 30, 2019, 11:16 AM
38 points
4 comments32 min readEA link

Metafore­cast late 2022 up­date: GraphQL API, Charts, bet­ter in­fras­truc­ture be­hind the scenes.

NunoSempereNov 4, 2022, 5:56 PM
39 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
No comments.