A warning shot is a global catastrophe that indirectly reduces existential risk by increasing concern about future catastrophes.
Terminology
The expression warning sign is sometimes used to describe any event that increases concern about a particular category of existential risk, regardless of whether the event itself constitutes a global catastrophe. For example, plausible candidates for an AI warning sign include a catastrophic failure by an AI system and public outreach campaigns or the publication of an exceptionally persuasive book on AI safety.[1]
A related notion is that of a fire alarm, a warning sign that creates common knowledge that some technology—typically advanced artificial intelligence—actually poses an existential risk.[2]
Note, however, that both “warning shot” and “fire alarm” are sometimes used as synonyms for “warning sign”.[3][4]
Further reading
Beckstead, Nick (2015) The long-term significance of reducing global catastrophic risks, Open Philanthropy, August 13.
Carlsmith, Joseph (2021) Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?, Open Philanthropy, April, section 6.2.
Related entries
artificial intelligence | existential risk | global catastrophic risk
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Hobson, Donald (2020) Comment on ‘What are the most plausible “AI Safety warning shot” scenarios?’, AI Alignment Forum, March 26.
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Grace, Katja (2021) Beyond fire alarms: freeing the groupstruck, AI Impacts, September 26.
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Kokotajlo, Daniel (2020) What are the most plausible ‘AI Safety warning shot’ scenarios?, AI Alignment Forum, March 26.
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McCluskey, Peter (2021) AI fire alarm scenarios, Bayesian Investor, December 23.