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Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

TagLast edit: May 23, 2024, 12:26 AM by Ozzie Gooen

Algorithmic forecasting is the process of making predictions about future events using computational algorithms. This term is analogous to “Algorithmic Trading” in the context of trading, where automated systems make decisions based on predefined rules and data inputs. Algorithmic forecasting can be implemented through various approaches, such as algorithms placing bets on binary prediction markets or submitting predictions directly to forecasting platforms.

There is no universally agreed-upon formal definition of algorithmic forecasting. In broader contexts outside of effective altruism, it generally refers to models that leverage large datasets and statistical methods to predict future trends or events. These models often incorporate techniques from machine learning to improve their accuracy over time by learning from new data. Within effective altruism, the scope of algorithmic forecasting can also include algorithms based on subjective beliefs rather than solely on empirical data.

Further Reading:

AI-Powered Forecasting

One specific approach to algorithmic forecasting is to have AI systems directly generate forecasts. There is a growing body of work using AI systems to generate forecasts on various questions, similar to how other judgmental forecasting platforms operate.

“AI-Powered Forecasting” is also not an agreed-upon term, though there is a mutual understanding of the concept. It should not be confused with “AI Forecasting,” which refers to forecasting about AI, not by AI.

Notable Companies:

Notable Studies:

In­tro­duc­ing Squig­gle AI

Ozzie GooenJan 3, 2025, 5:53 PM
81 points
13 comments8 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewonNov 9, 2020, 10:30 PM
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

Pre­dic­tion-Aug­mented Eval­u­a­tion Systems

Ozzie GooenNov 9, 2018, 11:43 AM
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie GooenMay 21, 2024, 4:09 AM
46 points
8 comments8 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempereMar 7, 2021, 7:03 PM
132 points
17 comments4 min readEA link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie GooenOct 18, 2021, 10:22 PM
88 points
34 comments5 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie GooenMay 22, 2024, 9:49 PM
36 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Is Fore­cast­ing a Promis­ing EA Cause Area?

Ozzie GooenMar 25, 2024, 8:36 PM
29 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Pro­ject idea: AI for epistemics

Benjamin_ToddMay 19, 2024, 7:36 PM
45 points
12 comments3 min readEA link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

The Ra­tionale-Shaped Hole At The Heart Of Forecasting

dschwarzApr 2, 2024, 3:51 PM
155 points
14 comments11 min readEA link

Is “su­per­hu­man” AI fore­cast­ing BS? Some ex­per­i­ments on the “539″ bot from the Cen­tre for AI Safety

titotalSep 18, 2024, 1:07 PM
68 points
4 comments14 min readEA link
(open.substack.com)

En­hanc­ing Math­e­mat­i­cal Model­ing with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations

Ozzie GooenOct 28, 2024, 9:37 PM
11 points
3 comments15 min readEA link

Me­tac­u­lus Q4 AI Bench­mark­ing: Bots Are Clos­ing The Gap

Molly HickmanFeb 19, 2025, 10:46 PM
40 points
2 comments13 min readEA link

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie GooenJun 26, 2024, 12:40 AM
46 points
7 comments24 min readEA link

AI for Re­solv­ing Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions: An Early Exploration

Ozzie GooenJan 16, 2025, 9:40 PM
21 points
0 comments9 min readEA link
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