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Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

TagLast edit: 23 May 2024 0:26 UTC by Ozzie Gooen

Algorithmic forecasting is the process of making predictions about future events using computational algorithms. This term is analogous to “Algorithmic Trading” in the context of trading, where automated systems make decisions based on predefined rules and data inputs. Algorithmic forecasting can be implemented through various approaches, such as algorithms placing bets on binary prediction markets or submitting predictions directly to forecasting platforms.

There is no universally agreed-upon formal definition of algorithmic forecasting. In broader contexts outside of effective altruism, it generally refers to models that leverage large datasets and statistical methods to predict future trends or events. These models often incorporate techniques from machine learning to improve their accuracy over time by learning from new data. Within effective altruism, the scope of algorithmic forecasting can also include algorithms based on subjective beliefs rather than solely on empirical data.

Further Reading:

AI-Powered Forecasting

One specific approach to algorithmic forecasting is to have AI systems directly generate forecasts. There is a growing body of work using AI systems to generate forecasts on various questions, similar to how other judgmental forecasting platforms operate.

“AI-Powered Forecasting” is also not an agreed-upon term, though there is a mutual understanding of the concept. It should not be confused with “AI Forecasting,” which refers to forecasting about AI, not by AI.

Notable Companies:

Notable Studies:

My Cur­rent Claims and Cruxes on LLM Fore­cast­ing & Epistemics

Ozzie Gooen26 Jun 2024 0:40 UTC
40 points
6 comments24 min readEA link

Au­tomat­ing rea­son­ing about the fu­ture at Ought

jungofthewon9 Nov 2020 22:30 UTC
20 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(ought.org)

Pre­dic­tion-Aug­mented Eval­u­a­tion Systems

Ozzie Gooen9 Nov 2018 11:43 UTC
6 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

Scorable Func­tions: A For­mat for Al­gorith­mic Forecasting

Ozzie Gooen21 May 2024 4:09 UTC
46 points
7 comments8 min readEA link

In­tro­duc­ing Metafore­cast: A Fore­cast Ag­gre­ga­tor and Search Tool

NunoSempere7 Mar 2021 19:03 UTC
132 points
17 comments5 min readEA link

Pri­ori­ti­za­tion Re­search for Ad­vanc­ing Wis­dom and Intelligence

Ozzie Gooen18 Oct 2021 22:22 UTC
88 points
34 comments5 min readEA link

Higher-Order Forecasts

Ozzie Gooen22 May 2024 21:49 UTC
35 points
12 comments3 min readEA link

Pod­cast: Is Fore­cast­ing a Promis­ing EA Cause Area?

Ozzie Gooen25 Mar 2024 20:36 UTC
29 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Pro­ject idea: AI for epistemics

Benjamin_Todd19 May 2024 19:36 UTC
45 points
12 comments3 min readEA link
(benjamintodd.substack.com)

The Ra­tionale-Shaped Hole At The Heart Of Forecasting

dschwarz2 Apr 2024 15:51 UTC
149 points
14 comments11 min readEA link
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