christian

Karma: 1,009

christian Jun 2, 2023, 10:16 PM
6 points
1 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
Embed Interactive Metaculus Forecasts on Your Website or Blog
Now you can share interactive Metaculus forecasts for all question types, including Question Groups and Conditional Pairs.
Just click the ‘Embed’ button at the top of a question page, customize the plot as needed, and copy the iframe html.
Improved Forecast Previews
Metaculus has also made it easier to share forecast preview images for more question types, on platforms like Twitter, Substack, Slack, and Facebook.
Just paste the question URL to generate a preview of the forecast plot on any platform that supports them.
To learn more about embedding forecasts & preview images, click here.

christian May 9, 2023, 6:23 PM
6 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
Metaculus is excited to announce the winners of the inaugural Keep Virginia Safe Tournament! This first-of-its kind collaboration with the University of Virginia (UVA) Biocomplexity Institute and the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) delivered forecasting and modeling resources to public health professionals and public policy experts as they have navigated critical decisions on COVID-19.
Congratulations to the top 3 prize winners!
“On behalf of the Virginia Department of Health, I’d like to offer our congratulations to Sergio, 2e10e122, mattvdm, and all the forecasters who participated in the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting tournament! Because of your work, Virginia was better able to navigate the Delta and Omicron waves and prepare for the long-term impacts of COVID-19, helping us keep Virginians safe during a critical period.”
—Justin Crow, Foresight & Analytics Coordinator for the Virginia Department of Health
Thank you to forecasting community! Your predictions were integrated into VDH planning sessions and were shared with local health department staff, statewide epidemiologists, and even with the Virginia Governor’s office.

For more details on the tournament outcomes, visit the project summary.
Our successful partnership with UVA and VDH continues through the Keep Virginia Safe II Tournament, where Metaculus forecasts continue to provide valuable information. Join to help protect Virginians and compete for $20,000 in prizes.
Find more information about the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament, including the complete leaderboard, here.

christian Apr 27, 2023, 2:28 AM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
Join Metaculus for Forecast Friday, April 28th at 12pm ET
Are you interested in how top forecasters predict the future? Curious how other people are reacting to the forecasts in the main feed?
Join us April 28th at 12pm ET/GMT-4 for Forecast Friday!
Click here to go to Gather Town. Then take the Metaculus portal.
This Friday
Seasoned forecaster and Product Manager for Metaculus Sylvain Chevalier will present for this week’s Forensic Friday session.

christian Apr 21, 2023, 11:54 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
Now You Can Submit Conditional Pair Questions on Metaculus
Curious to learn the likelihood of an event given the outcome of another? Now you can create conditional pairs of binary questions and invite the forecasting community to share their predictions to clarify the relationships between events.
Not yet familiar with Metaculus’s conditional pairs? Read the guide here or watch this introductory video to get up to speed.

christian Mar 21, 2023, 9:37 PM
10 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
🔎 Discover More Questions Relevant to You With Metaculus’s New Filter & Sort Tools
Where do you disagree with other forecasters? Which community predictions have shifted the most? And what was that nanotech forecast you meant to update? Metaculus has introduced new filter & sort tools that provide more control over the forecast feed so you can find the questions that matter to you.

Learn more

christian Mar 13, 2023, 6:25 PM
5 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
🕛 New Metaculus Feature: Now You Can Set Custom Forecast Notifications

Metaculus has upgraded its forecast notifications to make it easier to follow the questions you care about so you can keep your predictions fresh and stay up to date as stories develop. Set a single notification that alerts you whenever the Metaculus community’s prediction shifts, when new comments are made, when a question nears its close date, or at regular intervals over a question’s life. Learn more about forecast notifications and how you can use them here.

christian Feb 25, 2023, 1:16 AM
14 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
Metaculus is conducting its first user survey in nearly three years. If you have read analyses, consumed forecasts, or made predictions on Metaculus, we want to hear from you! Your feedback helps us better meet the needs of the forecasting community and is incredibly important to us.

Take the short survey here — we truly appreciate it! (We’ll be sure to share what we learn.)
What links here?
- Posts we recommend from last week (Digest #126) by Lizka (Mar 1, 2023, 9:58 PM; 24 points)

christian Feb 16, 2023, 5:11 AM
11 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
🔬 Metaculus Officially Launches API
Metaculus has officially launched the Metaculus API, providing access to a rich, quantitative database of aggregate forecasts on 7000+ questions. Start exploring, analyzing, and building here.

christian Feb 14, 2023, 9:44 PM
10 points
0 ∶ 0
on: christian’s Shortform
New Metaculus Feature: Reaffirming Predictions
Now you can more easily find predictions that need updating and reaffirm those you stand by. Learn more about this new feature here.

christian Jan 29, 2023, 6:15 PM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: jackva’s comment on: Metaculus Launches Climate Tipping Points Tournament With The Federation of American Scientists
Hey @jackva, are you asking about adding more questions to this tournament or about creating a prize pool for some other set of questions of your choosing? If the latter, you can email us at hello@metaculus.com to discuss developing a new initiative!

christian Jan 6, 2023, 5:02 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Max Görlitz’s comment on: Metaculus Year in Review: 2022
It’s a great idea, and I like how you’ve fleshed it out. I’ll pass this along to our Product team.

For your calibration plot, you can actually use the ‘evaluated at’ dropdown and watch your plot adjust on the fly.

christian Oct 19, 2022, 4:24 PM
3 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Nathan Young’s comment on: Metaculus Launches the ‘Forecasting Our World In Data’ Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
Hey Nathan — currently, there are only plans to publish the forecasts on Metaculus. We’ll let you know if that changes, however.

christian Oct 18, 2022, 4:00 PM
2 points
0 ∶ 0
on: Who’s hiring? (May-September 2022)
Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting
The speed, sophistication, and impacts of AI technology development together comprise some of the most astonishing and significant events of our lifetimes. AI development promises both enormous risks and opportunities for society. Join our AI forecasting team and help humankind better navigate this crucial period.
Open roles include:
Machine Learning Engineer—AI Forecasting
You’ll work to enhance the organization and searchability of our AI analyses, ensure that the AI-related data and thinking that we rely on is up-to-date, comprehensive, and well organized, and deliver (via modeling) forecasts on an enormous set of questions concerning the trajectory of AI.
Research Analyst—AI Forecasting
You’ll engage deeply with ideas about the future of AI and its potential impacts, and share insights with the AI research and forecasting communities and with key decision makers. You’ll use crowd forecasting to help generate these insights, writing forecasting questions that are informative and revealing, facilitating forecasting tournaments, and coordinating with Pro Forecasters.
Quantitative Research Analyst—AI Forecasting
You’ll use quantitative modeling to improve our ability to anticipate the future of AI and its impact on the world, enhance our AI-related decision making capabilities, and enable quantitative evaluation of ideas about the dynamics governing AI progress.
You can learn about our other high-impact, open positions here.

christian Aug 8, 2022, 6:36 PM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
on: Who’s hiring? (May-September 2022)
At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action.
We are hiring for a number of roles, including the following:
Backend Engineer
Full-Stack Engineer
Front-End Engineer
Data Scientist (Causality)
AI Forecasting Lead
CTO (Chief Technology Officer)
Forecasting Program Director

christian Jan 27, 2022, 3:52 AM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
on: Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
We’ve recently received some excellent applications saying “I wasn’t sure if you were still hiring for this position.” If you’re reading this, know that we are!

christian Oct 20, 2021, 5:00 AM
1 point
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Pablo’s comment on: Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
Hi Pablo, we’re accepting new writers on a rolling basis and we don’t have a planned date for when we’ll stop.

christian May 14, 2021, 9:37 PM
10 points
0 ∶ 0
in reply to: Benjamin_Todd’s comment on: Some global catastrophic risk estimates
Hi Benjamin, these are great questions! I work with Metaculus and wanted to add a bit of color here:

To your question about how to see the Metaculus Prediction, that’s located: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#tachyon-costs

—basically one has to be of a sufficient “level”, and then pay out some tachyons (the coin of the realm) to unlock the Metaculus Prediction for that question. That said, in this case, we’re happy to share the current MP with you. (I’ll message you here in a moment.)

And as to how the MP is calculated, the best resource there was written by one of the founders, and lives in this blog post: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204

To your question about catastrophic risk from an unknown source, the table in the post doesn’t include that bit, as it’s only summing the %s of the different catastrophic risk questions, but you’re right that you can get something like it from the question you link to:

Which just refers to that 10% decrease by any means, full stop. The Metaculus Prediction there is lower than the Community Prediction, FYI, but is indeed above the 14% you get from summing the other questions. So that makes some sense given that there are the other possibilities, however remote, that are not explicitly named. But it’s also true that there are different predictors on each question, and also the linked to forecast is not explicitly pitched as “summing the other catastrophes up gives you 14% and so this linked to question is meant to produce a forecast of 14+X%, where X is the probability of unnamed catastrophes.”

I hope that was useful. Please do reach out if you’d like to continue the conversation.

christian

Improved Forecast Previews

Join Metaculus for Forecast Friday, April 28th at 12pm ET

This Friday

Now You Can Submit Conditional Pair Questions on Metaculus

🔎 Discover More Questions Relevant to You With Metaculus’s New Filter & Sort Tools

Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting

Open roles include:

Machine Learning Engineer—AI Forecasting

Research Analyst—AI Forecasting

Quantitative Research Analyst—AI Forecasting