The news about Earth’s changing climate can feel very negative, often focusing on “tipping points” — irreversible, damaging changes that may occur once certain climate thresholds are reached. However, positive climate tipping points, which could lead to a more sustainable and livable future, have also been identified.
Metaculus’s Climate Tipping Points Tournament will deliver forecasts to policymakers on the underlying factors and policy interventions that may trigger positive tipping points toward the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs).
This tournament is the first of its kind for Metaculus. Unlike previous initiatives, Climate Tipping Points will ask forecasters to not only predict what will happen, but also to make pairs of conditional forecasts dependent on whether particular policies are implemented. Round 1 questions are open now, and conditional questions will go live for Round 2 in March.
We are excited to debut this novel conditional forecasting approach and are grateful to our nonprofit partner the Federation of American Scientists, and to the forecasting community.
$5,000 in prizes awarded for accurate predictions and insightful analysis. Get started.
Would there be a possibility to fund the forecasting of other questions?
Hey @jackva, are you asking about adding more questions to this tournament or about creating a prize pool for some other set of questions of your choosing? If the latter, you can email us at hello@metaculus.com to discuss developing a new initiative!