Hi Pablo, we’re accepting new writers on a rolling basis and we don’t have a planned date for when we’ll stop.
christian
Karma: 709
[Event] A Metaculus Open Panel Discussion: How Forecasts Inform COVID-19 Policy
Metaculus seeking Analytical Storytellers to write essays fortified with testable predictions
We’ve recently received some excellent applications saying “I wasn’t sure if you were still hiring for this position.” If you’re reading this, know that we are!
Metaculus is seeking experienced leaders, researchers & operators for high-impact roles
Metaculus Launches the ‘Forecasting Our World In Data’ Project to Probe the Long-Term Future
Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting
Hey Nathan — currently, there are only plans to publish the forecasts on Metaculus. We’ll let you know if that changes, however.
Announcing Metaculus’s ‘Red Lines in Ukraine’ Forecasting Project
Metaculus Launches FluSight Challenge 2022/23
Metaculus Announces The Million Predictions Hackathon
Metaculus Year in Review: 2022
It’s a great idea, and I like how you’ve fleshed it out. I’ll pass this along to our Product team.
For your calibration plot, you can actually use the ‘evaluated at’ dropdown and watch your plot adjust on the fly.
Metaculus Launches Climate Tipping Points Tournament With The Federation of American Scientists
Hey @jackva, are you asking about adding more questions to this tournament or about creating a prize pool for some other set of questions of your choosing? If the latter, you can email us at hello@metaculus.com to discuss developing a new initiative!
New Metaculus Feature: Reaffirming Predictions
Now you can more easily find predictions that need updating and reaffirm those you stand by. Learn more about this new feature here.
🔬 Metaculus Officially Launches API
Metaculus has officially launched the Metaculus API, providing access to a rich, quantitative database of aggregate forecasts on 7000+ questions. Start exploring, analyzing, and building here.
Metaculus Introduces New ‘Conditional Pair’ Forecast Questions for Making Conditional Predictions
Metaculus is conducting its first user survey in nearly three years. If you have read analyses, consumed forecasts, or made predictions on Metaculus, we want to hear from you! Your feedback helps us better meet the needs of the forecasting community and is incredibly important to us.
Take the short survey here — we truly appreciate it! (We’ll be sure to share what we learn.)
Hi Benjamin, these are great questions! I work with Metaculus and wanted to add a bit of color here:
To your question about how to see the Metaculus Prediction, that’s located: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#tachyon-costs
—basically one has to be of a sufficient “level”, and then pay out some tachyons (the coin of the realm) to unlock the Metaculus Prediction for that question. That said, in this case, we’re happy to share the current MP with you. (I’ll message you here in a moment.)
And as to how the MP is calculated, the best resource there was written by one of the founders, and lives in this blog post: https://metaculus.medium.com/a-primer-on-the-metaculus-scoring-rule-eb9a974cd204
To your question about catastrophic risk from an unknown source, the table in the post doesn’t include that bit, as it’s only summing the %s of the different catastrophic risk questions, but you’re right that you can get something like it from the question you link to:
Which just refers to that 10% decrease by any means, full stop. The Metaculus Prediction there is lower than the Community Prediction, FYI, but is indeed above the 14% you get from summing the other questions. So that makes some sense given that there are the other possibilities, however remote, that are not explicitly named. But it’s also true that there are different predictors on each question, and also the linked to forecast is not explicitly pitched as “summing the other catastrophes up gives you 14% and so this linked to question is meant to produce a forecast of 14+X%, where X is the probability of unnamed catastrophes.”
I hope that was useful. Please do reach out if you’d like to continue the conversation.