Thanks Morgan, this is a valuable perspective.
One observation from an adjacent world: absorption capacity is treated here as a new and poorly understood problem, but it’s a mature discipline in the multilateral, development and humanitarian ecosystems. Surge absorption has been studied and managed there for decades, with identified tools and processes—eg absorptive-capacity assessments before scale-up, phased disbursement tied to implementation rates, pooled funds that spread money across implementers when no single organisation can absorb it, and monitoring systems that flag when spending outruns capacity.
The failure modes you list (unnatural growth, rushed strategy, hiring ahead of funding that doesn’t materialise, and plus, corruption) are also well documented there, from post-tsunami aid to large global health scale-ups. We know from experience that absorption fails at the organisational level before it fails at the field level; phased growth outperforms step-change growth; and reversibility (“two-way doors”) is exactly the right design principle.
So I’d add one suggestion to your four: the sector doesn’t need to derive this knowledge from first principles. There are many practitioners with extensive (decades-long) of experience planning, budgeting and disbursing at the scale you are concerned about. As one example, the budget of the Syria Humanitarian Needs and Response plan for 2026 is $2.9b, covering health, education, food security, water and sanitation. The experience of these practitioners who have disbursed at billion-dollar scale through these exact dynamics is currently almost invisible to this ecosystem. Importing that expertise seems cheaper than re-learning the hard lessons.
https://reliefweb.int/attachments/28e3e5cb-a476-44ee-9cb7-f69625bdf31a/syrian_arab_republic_2026_humanitarian_needs_and_response_plan.pdf
Great writeup. This is also a really positive example of the kind of work that Gen Stream can produce by getting someone to focus on a specific issue for a short sprint, and publish the analysis. So kudos to you and to Gen Stream for this initiative.
I want to acknowledge that managing a recruitment process is a huge amount of work, and giving detailed feedback is an additional workload on top of this. Not all organisations will have capacity to do give targeted feedback, even if they wanted to. There are also some risks of giving targeted feedback in some jurisdictions—eg if your feedback indicates that the employer has unlawfully discriminated against the candidate.
However, the further candidates advance and invest in a selection process, the more they would benefit from getting targeted feedback. Feedback can be provided by stage as you’ve explained (candidates who reach the final round might get individual feedback, candidates who do not pass the first screening might only get general feedback). I also agree that feedback can be misplaced—if a candidate reaches a late round, they are probably well beyond the stage of BlueDot and 80,000 hours and referring these candidates to resources that they have already advanced beyond doesnt seem very helpful.
I’d be interested to see examples of good feedback if the organisations you’ve chosen decide to post them. From previous high volume experience, I’ve seen some organisations give effective feedback by describing what strong candidates did vs weaker candidates—eg strong candidates could clearly describe A,B and C and apply this knowledge to the scenario to identify risks, impacts, sequencing. Weaker candidates identified 2 or less of the key issues; did not link the issues to an impact and / or did not clearly describe a viable sequence. By showing candidates what good and bad look like, you invite them to find their own opportunities for improvement.
I also think there are more opportunities for common recruitment processes and recruitment for shared rosters across organisations. I know this is not easy to organise, but it’s common practice in some industries. Often organisations are recruiting for very similar competencies (rightly or wrongly), and it’s a significant workload on both hiring organisations and applicants to repeatedly have full hiring processes for common roles.