Builds web apps (eg viewpoints.xyz) and makes forecasts. Currently I have spare capacity.
Nathan Young
Karma: 17,347
Do you want to do a debate on youtube? I’m looking for polite, truth-seeking participants.
Which arguments do you find compelling in debate week?
Can I push you on this a bit?
I want to note that this is more consensus than I thought in favour of the proposition. I would have guessed the median was much nearer 50% than it is.
I want to once again congratulate the forum team on this voting tool. I think by doing this, the EA forum is at the forefront of internal community discussions. No communities do this well and it’s surprising how powerful it is.
I do give a fraction to animal welfare and if I changed my mind I would give it to global health.
The question of capacity seems unrelated to the crux to me. I’m pretty confident that if it were known that there was 100mn to spend then people would spin up orgs. I guess there is a question whether all those would be more effective on the margin than global health, but I dunno, it seems to be missing the bit that I care about most.
Would you like to expand on this a bit?
I didn’t realise the comments were from that initially. Thanks.
Seems likely correct. I’m not fully certain because I wouldn’t be that surprised to be wrong. It is much easier to help animals than people on the margin.
I update a bit more because I haven’t read good arguments against and have seen some possible arguments debunked.
Under your model would they be able to opt out of being written about in articles?
A new process for mapping discussions
Is there a map which doesn’t have a discontinuity at .5?
Seems underrated how much AI Safety policy might reduce european GDP (.2% over 10 years doesn’t seem crazy to me). I hope we will endorse this, should it come to pass.
SB 1047 looks to me focused on reducing downsides while preserving upsides. I hope EA intervention in the EU has been the same.
Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk
Lab grown meat → no-kill meat
This tweet recommends changing the words we use to discuss lab-grown meat. Seems right.
I feel like I want 80k to do more cause prioritisation if they are gonna direct so many people. Seems like 5 years ago they had their whole ranking thing which was easy to check. Now I am less confident in the quality of work that is directing lots of people in a certain direction.
I often think about transparency in relation to allies, competitors and others:
Allies are on my team. We have shared norms and can make deals
Competitors are not on my team and are either working against my interests or too chaotic to work with
Others are randoms I don’t know enough about.
Generally I feel obliged to be truthful to allies and others and transparent to allies. So I’d say I like EA to anyone, but I wouldn’t feel the need to reveal it to any random person and particularly not someone who is against me.
What I think is more interesting from some of this discourse is that people see eg their government employers as competitors here. I think that would change the frame of how I went to work if I didn’t think I was in a collaborative relationship with my boss.
Comment I wrote on Samuel’s substack:
Medical innovation—Trump didn’t really do a lot here last time he was in office. Seems like warp speed was motivated by covid.
Housing—Trump did’t really do a lot here last time he was in office. Not sure we know Harris’ policy here yet.
Immigration—I don’t really trust Trump to manage some sort of clever compromise here
AI—Yeah, trump being worried could be better, but it’s a random roll, against Biden being pretty sober.
This feels more like a desire to be controversial, than really weight the pros and cons. I think it’s plausible that Trump is better, for AI reasons, and I don’t think it’s that unlikely, given the uncertainty, but I think it is unlikely.
I think this is an interesting kind of article, but I don’t buy the AI point, which is the most cruxy one for me.
Argument: The money can be spent over a long time and like will be able to be spent.
The footnote on the main question says:
Likewise @Will Howard🔹 argues that this isn’t that significant an additional amount of money anyway: