Without further context, I have no reason to think the latter doesn’t mean the former. People spin things.
SantaRKlaas
Karma: 61
I’d need a lot more context to form a judgment about that case. One person’s “grooming” is another person’s “hitting on,” and one person’s “pedophilia advocacy ” is another’s “high decoupling cognitive style.” And one person’s “twice the age” is another’s “I never got any memo that i can’t hit on adults half my age.”
+1 for both sides
I’m still surprised FLI didn’t rummage around their Wikipedia page before sending a non binding LOI.
WRT the broader theme of EAs and apologies, I’m waiting for Will MacAskill’s apology or explanation regarding his statements to journalists supporting SBF’s ascetic image.
>>> the apology provides scant evidence of sincere introspection and remorse
He described his old email as “disgusting.… repulsive.… idiotic and offensive.”
Yet the tweets you linked were from 2⁄16 and 2⁄17.
Rational expectations doesn’t mean “the alarmists are always right,” and EMH doesn’t imply that no one can profit helping correct the market.
The tweets you linked demonstrate the confusion at the time. Robin thought that China would be overwhelmed with COVID in a few months, while the rest of the world would be closing contact. In fact the rest of the world got overwhelmed with COVID and crashed their economies in just one month, while China contained it and kept its economy rolling for another two years. Rational expectations would’ve incorporated views like Robin’s, but not parroted them. A plateau from early January and crash on 2⁄20 isn’t inconsistent with that.
The plateau beginning early January could be read as an initial reaction to covid.
I wouldn’t expect the markets to react in tandem with the most alarmist rationalists. I participated in a rationalist prediction tournament in mid-January 2020 where only one participant gave COVID >50% odds of killing 10000 people. The EAF post you linked was an unusual view at the time, as were Travis W Fisher’s comments at Metaculus. I grant that the rationalist consensus preceded the market’s reaction, but only by days.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia
The Dow plateaued in early January and crashed starting Feb 20th, tracking rational expectations and three weeks ahead of media/mass awareness, which only caught up around March 12th
No one mentioned in the article you linked disputes either of these sentences: “(1) IQ distributions differ across races. (2) IQ proxies a general factor of intelligence.” Their discussion addresses “Why is (1) the case.”
I don’t get his point about social conservatism. Does he mean that a mass appeal socially conservative EA will be more EA somehow than a mass appeal socially liberal EA? Or that EAs should recruit social conservatives to influence more segments of the population?
Hero worship is useful for building institutional loyalty. Dead heroes like Bentham are ideal because they can’t abuse their cult status or do anything embarrassing.
That said, I do agree that there’s very little, if anything, to gain from discussions about group averages, and that the people who are eager to bring up the topic seem morally suspicious
Racial disparities are a key political/culture wars topic. There’s nothing suspicious about enumerating regressors.
IQ distributions differ across races. IQ proxies a general factor of intelligence. Afaik intelligence researchers believe both sentences are correct. I care more about being correct than about being culturally compliant, and I expect Bostrom feels similarly. So I don’t expect him to disavow claims that seem to be correct.
“I don’t think I’ve ever expressed a view as horrible as that”
Count yourself lucky that you don’t hold any heretical beliefs.
”the apology doesn’t ring sincere to me”
He apologized for his offensive wording and nothing more because he understands that that’s all he has to apologize for.
The markets reacted appropriately to covid. Match the Dow to forecasters’ and EAF’s prognostications and you’ll find that the markets moved in tandem with rational expectations.
I’m young enough that no adults are half my age, so this is just about my knowledge of Anglo culture. Is there some rule about age gaps between adults? I’ve seen some online snark about Leo DiCaprio but no claims that he and people like him are violating cultural norms by dating adults who are much younger than them.