Well, obvious thought in hindsight #1: Manifold scandal prediction markets with anonymous trading and rolling expiration dates.
I don’t know how else you’d aggregate a lot of possible opinions that people possibly might not be incentivized to say openly, into a useful probability estimate that anyone could actually act on.
I have been suggesting this for like a year, but everyone I talked to told me it would cause problems so I wasn’t confident enough to do it unilaterally.
Isn’t this trivially exploitable? If a market like this existed, then surely my first move as a corrupt billionaire would be to place rolling bets on my own innocence. Seems like I should be able to manipulate the estimate by risking only a small fraction of my charitable allocation in most realistic cases. Especially since the lower the market probability looks, the less likely anyone is to actually investigate me carefully.
Standard reply is that a visible bet of this form would itself be sus and would act as a subsidy to the prediction market that means bets the other way would have a larger payoff and hence warrant a more expensive investigation. Though this alas does not work quite the same way on Manifold since it’s not convertible back to USD.
It is by us though. All bets are convertible to charity donations and a lot of effective organisations are on there. So for many EAs it’s effectively just cash.
Honest question: could betting on FTT have been modeled as a prediction market on FTX? (vaguely similar to stock, even with important differences)
I see many crypto tokens as bets on the value of X, and they have been very highly manipulated for the past ~8 years (at least), why would USD prediction markets be different?
Well, obvious thought in hindsight #1: Manifold scandal prediction markets with anonymous trading and rolling expiration dates.
I don’t know how else you’d aggregate a lot of possible opinions that people possibly might not be incentivized to say openly, into a useful probability estimate that anyone could actually act on.
I have been suggesting this for like a year, but everyone I talked to told me it would cause problems so I wasn’t confident enough to do it unilaterally.
That’s no longer the case.
Isn’t this trivially exploitable? If a market like this existed, then surely my first move as a corrupt billionaire would be to place rolling bets on my own innocence. Seems like I should be able to manipulate the estimate by risking only a small fraction of my charitable allocation in most realistic cases. Especially since the lower the market probability looks, the less likely anyone is to actually investigate me carefully.
Standard reply is that a visible bet of this form would itself be sus and would act as a subsidy to the prediction market that means bets the other way would have a larger payoff and hence warrant a more expensive investigation. Though this alas does not work quite the same way on Manifold since it’s not convertible back to USD.
It is by us though. All bets are convertible to charity donations and a lot of effective organisations are on there. So for many EAs it’s effectively just cash.
Golly, I didn’t even realize that.
Honest question: could betting on FTT have been modeled as a prediction market on FTX? (vaguely similar to stock, even with important differences)
I see many crypto tokens as bets on the value of X, and they have been very highly manipulated for the past ~8 years (at least), why would USD prediction markets be different?
Yes, I think so. And in that sense we were racing against a huge prediction market.