I was at Manifest as a volunteer, and I also saw much of the same behaviour as you. If I had known scientific racism or eugenics were acceptable topics of conversation there, I wouldn’t have gone. I’m increasingly glad I decided not to organise a talk.
EA needs to recognise that even associating with scientific racists and eugenicists turns away many of the kinds of bright, kind, ambitious people the movement needs. I am exhausted at having to tell people I am an EA ‘but not one of those ones’. If the movement truly values diversity of views, we should value the people we’re turning away just as much.
Edit: David Thorstad levelled a very good criticism of this comment, which I fully endorse & agree with. I did write this strategically to be persuasive in the forum context, at the cost of expressing my stronger beliefs that scientific racism & eugenics are factually & morally wrong over and above just being reputational or strategic concerns for EA.
Hey huw—I’m very grateful that you took the time to volunteer at Manifest. I hope that you overall enjoyed your time at the festival; either way, thanks for the feedback.
I don’t love that some guests we invited may turn away bright, ambitious, and especially kind folks like yourself; I write a bit more about this here. I think the opposite is true as well, though, where left-leaning views turn away some of the most awesome up-and-coming folks. My subjective guess is that EA as a whole is far more likely to suffer from the latter failure mode.
In any case, I expect EAGs to represent more of an official EA party line with respect to who they include or exclude, and encourage you to look there if you don’t find Manifest to your tastes. One of the explicit tenets of Manifest that distinguishes it from an EAG is that we are default-open rather than default-closed; there’s no application process where we screen attendees to conform to a particular mold.
Manifest is cool and open; EA is snooty and closed.
Manfiest values free discourse; EA is stifling.
EAG and Manifest are equally controversial because EA has leftists and Manifest has rightists.
Manifest is just getting flak from the left because Manifest has some right-leaning people.
Sure some bright, ambitious, kind people turn away, but that’s just because they’re too leftist and an equally large amount of bright, ambitious, kind people would bounce off if Manifest were more leftist as well.
Turning away people is never the right thing to do unless they pose a physical threat.
Manifest faces trade-offs and these trade-offs go in equal directions.
I think this response is a false equivalence and feels dismissive of the concerns being expressed.
My issue is not that I’m leftist and don’t like right-wing opinions and just want to toe the “party line”. I am actually quite moderate, attend right-wing conferences, and share a lot of misgivings with left-wing culture + cancel culture + progressives.
My issue is that I don’t like having platformed speakers who think that trans people are mentally ill, that black professionals are easily dismissed affirmative action hires (or worse: animals). I don’t like cancel culture but I do think there needs to be some sort of “line” established of acceptable conduct and I think this goes way beyond right vs. left and into something very dark and different.
I think this comment does a really bad job of interpreting Austin in good faith. You are putting words in his mouth, rewriting the tone and substance of his comment so that it is much more contentious than what he actually expressed. Austin did not claim:
that Manifest is cooler or less snooty than EA
that EA and Manifest are equally controversial
that turning people away is never the right thing to do (baring a physical threat)
I think it is pretty poor form to read someone’s comment in such a hostile way and then attribute views to them they didn’t express.
I’d be curious to hear from @Austin some thoughts on where you think the line of acceptable conduct is? (Though I know it’s really tricky to specify, as argued here.)
Mm, for example, I think using the word “fag” in conversation is somewhat past the line; I don’t see why that kind of epithet would need to be used at Manifest, and hope that I would have spoken out against that kind of behavior if I had witnessed it. (I’m naturally not a very confrontational person, fwiw).
I don’t remember any instances or interactions throughout Manifest that I witnessed which got close to the line; it’s possible it didn’t happen in front of me, because of my status as an organizer, but I think this was reflective of the vast majority of attendee experiences. In the feedback form, two commenters described interactions that feel past the line to me (which I detail here).
❤️ I do wanna add that every interaction I had with you, Rachel, Saul, and all staff & volunteers was overwhelmingly positive, and I’d love to hang again IRL :) Were it not for the issue at hand, I would’ve also rated Manifest an 8–9 on my feedback form, you put on one hell of an event! I also appreciate your openness to feedback; there’s no way I would’ve posted publicly under my real name if I felt like I would get any grief or repercussions for it—that’s rare. (I don’t think I have much else persuasive to say on the main topic)
There have been a lot of EAGs with a lot of attendees, so I think it’s reasonable to ask for specific support for this proposition:
I think the opposite is true as well, though, where left-leaning views turn away some of the most awesome up-and-coming folks. My subjective guess is that EA as a whole is far more likely to suffer from the latter failure mode.
Which specific events and/or attendees at past EAGs have—or would reasonably be expected to—“turn away some of the most awesome up-and-coming folks”?
I have heard from many conversatives (and some grey tribe people) over the years that they feel very unwelcome at EA events (which is not very surprising, given quotes in the OP which expresses horror at a conference that might be 50% republicans, though I understand that might be more of a US/non-US cultural misunderstanding).
I don’t pay that much attention to which speakers go to EAG, so I am less sure about speakers, but there have been a bunch of radical-leftist animal rights people at various conferences that have been cited to me many times as something that made very promising young people substantially less likely to attend (I don’t want to dox the relevant attendees here, but would be happy to DM you some names if you want).
“there have been a bunch of radical-leftist animal rights people at various conferences that have been cited to me many times as something that made very promising young people substantially less likely to attend (I don’t want to dox the relevant attendees here, but would be happy to DM you some names if you want).”
I’m curious about the type of behaviour rather than the names of the people.
As an example of something that I think causes people to have this reaction, DxE coordinated and tried to stage a protest at the EA Global I organized in 2015, because we served some meat at the event. DxE also staged a protest at another CFAR event that I helped organize in 2016. Their protests at the time consisted of disruptively blocking access to the food and screaming very loudly (sometimes with a megaphone) at the people trying to get food about how they are evil (everyone gets to hear this, though it’s directed at the people who eat meat) until they get escorted out by security.
(Also, to be clear on my position, I think Wayne Hsiung, head of DxE is a pretty terrible person with a history of disruption and advocating for pretty extreme bad things in my books, and I still think it would be good for him to be invited to Manifest, especially if he would debate his positions with someone, and he commits to not staging some kind of disruptive protest)
Thanks; this is helpful. It does seem reasonable that at least certain “radical-leftist animal rights people” would create an unwelcoming environment for many moderates and conservatives (and probably others too).
I am more hesitant to deny people admission to an event based on their ideological views (as long as they are fairly well-behaved) than I am to decide not to give them a spot on the agenda or “special guest” status. For example, aggressive proselytism of uninterested and unwilling people is annoying, whether the offender is preaching religion, politics, animal rights, operating-system preference, or sports fandom. I would deny admission for a history of that kind of behavior, but I would view it as application of a viewpoint-neutral conduct rule. Even the First Amendment doesn’t broadly grant people the right to aggressively push their views on an unwilling listener.
I don’t think it’s a function of specific events or speakers or attendees at an EAG, and more of like, a general sense that interesting and talented young folks no longer cite EA as a thing they support. I feel like Bentham’s Bulldog is almost the exception to that proves the rule. This is super vibes-based though, and I’m curious if others in the community agree or disagree with this take.
When it comes to smart and many of the very smartest young people, the influence of Effective Altruism on their thought is radically underreported and underrepresented.
I do think Manifest and the Manifund team try to communicate a philosophy of extreme transparency and extreme openness for any conversational topic that people want to bring (of course barring anything that actually involves directly harassing someone). I, of all people, had a bunch of arguments with Austin over the last 1-2 years about whether some people should be more clearly deplatformed or excluded from conversations (and I think I am already at least a 95th percentile person on this dimension)
I think this is overall admirable, but I am sad that you ended up attending without that being properly sign-posted to you.
I guess I am trying to elucidate that the paradox of intolerance applies to this kind of extreme openness/transparency. The more open Manifest is to offensive, incorrect, and harmful ideas, the less of any other kinds of ideas it will attract. I don’t think there is an effective way to signpost that openness without losing the rest of their audience; nobody but scientific racists would go to a conference that signposted ‘it’s acceptable to be scientifically racist here’.
Anyway. It’s obviously their prerogative to host such a conference if they want. But it is equally up to EA to decide where to draw the line out of their own best interests. If that line isn’t an outright intolerance of scientific racism and eugenics, I don’t think EA will be able to draw in enough new members to survive.
Huw: To what extent is this EA verses rationality? Above you keep saying, “EA needs to” but these are ultimately rationalist conferences. For example, I’m not sure what more we can do to loudly signal Vassar isn’t EA. He’s banned from literally everything and has been for coming up to 10 years. I am pretty sure that extends to multiple people listed here. I am just not sure how public those decisions are so I will stop listing but (shoots karma into space) I wouldn’t go near half of these people with a 60 foot long stick.
Above you keep saying, “EA needs to” but these are ultimately rationalist conferences.
Steelmanning Huw’s comments, I interpret “it is equally up to EA to decide where to draw the line out of their own best interests” as speaking out against certain things and being very careful to not give the impression of accepting or tolerating them. Indicia exist that could cause a reasonable person to think that Manifest was somehow related to EA—it was promoted on this Forum, Manifold has received significant funding from an “EA” coded source (i.e., FTXFF), a number of prominent EAs were reportedly in attendance, etc. So one could reach a conclusion that EA needs to distance itself more sharply and firmly from this while recognizing that the conferences are not under EA control.
Firm separation sounds great to me. I just also want to voice something like “Many people in the community have firmly taken strong stances” but regardless of what we say or do get lumped in with a load of stuff that we’ve pretty clearly said we find abhorrent and have firmly exiled from our community spaces (Im thinking of the case of Vassar here but also Im pretty sure they don’t want to be in EA spaces anyway because they aren’t EA!).
Also, to be clear, I have no idea what people mean by describing Manifest as a “rationalist” conference. It doesn’t advertise itself much to rationalists, and I, as the person who maybe next to Eliezer Yudkowsky has the most authority to declare something “rationalist” or not, would not apply that label to that conference, and also have no particularly meaningful control about who shows up to it.
I’m surprised you say you have “no idea what people mean.” The Manifest / Summer Camp / LessOnline trio made Manifest seem closer to “project the LessWrong team is deeply involved with” than “some organization is renting out our space.”
Now that I’m looking at these with a more careful eye, I can see that they all say Manifest is independently operated with its own organizers, etc. I can understand how from the inside, it would be obvious that Manifest was run by completely different people and had (I’m now presuming) little direct LessWrong involvement. I just think it should be apparent that this is less clear from the outside, and it wouldn’t be hard for someone to be confused on this point.
Granted, I didn’t go to any of these, I’ve just seen some stuff about them online, so discount this take appropriately. But my impression is that if a friend had asked me “hey, I heard about Manifest, is that a Rationalist thing?” I think “yes” would have been a less misleading answer than “no.”
Now that I’m looking at these with a more careful eye, I can see that they all say Manifest is independently operated with its own organizers, etc. I can understand how from the inside, it would be obvious that Manifest was run by completely different people and had (I’m now presuming) little direct LessWrong involvement. I just think it should be apparent that this is less clear from the outside, and it wouldn’t be hard for someone to be confused on this point.
Yeah, I think this is fair. I think using the language “no idea what people mean” in exchange for “I think these people are wrong and I think are capable of figuring out that they are wrong” (which is closer to what I meant) is a bad rhetorical move and I shouldn’t have used it.
Sure, we definitely collaborated a bunch! But a core component of our contract and arrangement with Manifest, which they repeatedly emphasized, is that they find it very costly for us to limit their attendance (and this is of course a very reasonable request as a paying client of Lighthaven).
I mean, I don’t really see the paradox in this case. I am totally OK attending a conference with people who I strongly disagree with or who I think are generally being harmful for the world in a bunch of different ways (and I think this is also true for the vast majority of attendees at Manifest).
I feel like the solution to this paradox is to just have a conference for people who are fine with attending an event with that disagreement present, which Manifest is IMO pretty clearly signaling it is trying to be. People don’t have to attend, but where is the paradox?
The paradox IMO only applies if for some reason the different groups actually start competing or interfering with each other, but I had no run-ins with any of these people, and nobody seemed to do any kind of bullying or threaten violence or anything else that seems like it would actually pose a fundamental conflict here.
I again think it’s valuable and important to sign-post that this is the kind of event where people with strong disagreements and drastically different beliefs and moral perspectives will attend, but I feel like overall Manifund and Manifest have been pretty consistent in that messaging (though still not perfect, and I expect future years to have less of an issue here, since people can see how the previous years were).
The paradox is that openness to these kinds of speakers makes the conference much less attractive and acceptable to the large swathe of people interested in forecasting but not interested in engaging with racists. The conference does not need to literally bar this swathe from attending to effectively dissuade them from doing so. Consider how a similar selection of blatant homophobes would affect LGBT+ folks’ decision to attend. (edit: some cool voting patterns happening huh)
If you cancel speakers from attending a future Manifest, won’t that also make the conference less attractive and acceptable to a large swathe of people interested in forecasting?
Consider the relative sizes of the groups, and their respective intellectual honesty and calibre. Manifest can be intellectually open, rigorous, and not deliberately platform racists—it really is possible. And to be clear, I’m not saying ban people who agree with XYZ speaker with racist ties—I’m saying don’t seek to deliberately invite those speakers. Manifest has already heard from them, do they really need annual updates?
It seems like you are referring to Richard Hanania—who has been invited twice. I suspect that he was invited because Hanania has been an outspoken advocate of prediction markets. I find it highly doubtful that Hanania has, on net, pushed more people away from Manifest (and prediction markets) than been a draw to them attending.
It’s not just a matter of a speaker’s net effect on attendance/interest. Alex Jones would probably draw lots of new people to a Manifest conference, but are they types of people you want to be there? Who you choose to platform, especially at a small, young conference, will have a large effect on the makeup and culture of the related communities.
Additionally, given how toxic these views are in the wider culture, any association between them and prediction markets are likely to be bad for the long-term health of the prediction community.
Fwiw, I think this is precisely why you don’t want to invite people solely on popularity. Jones is popular and charismatic but epistemically not someone I want to benefit.
The views of the race science guys on race or Hanson’s edgelording about rape strike me as far more tolerated in (West Coast) EA culture than I would guess they would be in mainstream US conservatism. (Despite EAs no doubt being anti-conservative in many other ways.)
I am strongly in favor of having more forecasting conferences! I think having a more orthodox and professional forecasting conference could be great and I would love to host it. I agree there is somewhat of a limited resource in terms of conference-bandwidth here, but I think on the margin there is just space for multiple events with different priorities here.
I claim Manifest would do better by it’s own lights (i.e. openness to many ideas) if they were more accomodating to people who find racism distasteful than to those who find it acceptable. But also, as one of very few conferences on a niche topic, Manifest holds some responsibility to the current and future forecasting community. On a moral and intellectual basis, barring explicit racists seems much more reasonable than cultivating a home for racists. There is no necessary connection between forecasting and racism—it is a relationship contingent upon particular histories and internet groups. Manifest can decide to continue that relationship or disrupt it.
I feel sympathy for the “cultivating a home for racists” comparison, but like, my sense is just that Manifest just invited anyone who wanted to come with any reasonably large following of any kind. I don’t think they were trying in any way to “cultivate a home for racists”.
I feel hesitant to put more complicated reputational burdens on conference organizers. It is already an enormously thankless job, and while I agree there is conference fatigue and so that means there are some commons to be allocated here, I think on the margin it’s more productive to encourage people to run their own conferences instead of putting more constraints on existing organizers.
I don’t think they were trying in any way to “cultivate a home for racists”.
I think one way you can read this situation is: racists are looking for an “intellectual home” in some sense, and since they don’t find one in most of the mainstream, they look for places that they can parasitically occupy and use for their own ends. The warning here is: the forecasting community need not only to avoid cultivating a home for racists, but also to proactively defend against racists cultivating a home for themselves. And if the forecasting community can’t build walls against this kind of parasitism, then the rationalist community needs to protect themselves from the forecasting community. And if they can’t do that, then EA needs to protect itself from the rationalist community.
The core of much of this thinking is that racists (and fascists, the alt-right generally) don’t play fair in the marketplace of ideas, and they will manipulate and exploit your welcome if you extend them one. I’m not sure how well I can defend this idea (might write a top-level comment about it if I can feel confident enough about it), but I think that’s often what people are getting at with these kinds of concerns.
Yeah, to be clear, I think this is a real dynamic (as Scott Alexander has I think cogently written about here[1]). I think in as much as this is the concern, I am pretty into thinking about the dynamics here, and strongly agree that defenses for this kind of stuff are important.
I also think similar things are true about people on the far left and a bunch of other social clusters with a history of trying to establish themselves in places with attack surface like this.
I think a reasonable thing would definitely be to see whether any specific subculture is growing at a very disproportionate rate in terms of attendance for events like Manifest, as well as to think about good ways of defending against this kind of takeover. My model of Manifest is probably not doing enough modeling about this kind of hostile subculture growth, though my guess is they’ll learn quickly as it becomes a more apparent problem.
The moral of the story is: if you’re against witch-hunts, and you promise to found your own little utopian community where witch-hunts will never happen, your new society will end up consisting of approximately three principled civil libertarians and seven zillion witches. It will be a terrible place to live even if witch-hunts are genuinely wrong.
The warning here is: the forecasting community need not only to avoid cultivating a home for racists, but also to proactively defend against racists cultivating a home for themselves. And if the forecasting community can’t build walls against this kind of parasitism, then the rationalist community needs to protect themselves from the forecasting community. And if they can’t do that, then EA needs to protect itself from the rationalist community.
I understand what you’re getting at, but would flag that all these categories are pretty coarse.
The “forecasting community” sounds similar to the “finance community”. In finance, there are tons of subcommunities. Chicago economists are nothing like wolf-of-wallstreet salesmen.
Similarly, I don’t see there being a coherent “forecasting” community now. There’s a bunch of very different clusters of people.
Arguably this conference was more about the “Manifold community”, which is large and diverse in a similar way to the “Reddit community”.
I’m not 100% sure I endorse either, to be fair. I’ve heard this story from many people and I think it’s a useful story to have in mind, but I don’t feel like I’ve seen enough concrete evidence and thought enough about alternative explanations to really vouch that it’s right.
Yes ‘cultivate’ is too strong—but the rate of speakers of this kind is way above what one would expect just from the happenstance crossover of interests. Like my guess here is that some subset of the organisers has significant interest in those communities and proactively seeks to add speakers from them. There are speakers/panellists whose connection to any of the Manifest topics are tenuous, and there are other fields with tenuous connections which are not drawn on much by Manifest—e.g. formal risk analysis, actuarial studies, safety engineering, geopolitics, statistics. All that to say there appears to be at least some predilection for edgelordism, above and beyond any coinciding of interests.
Like my guess here is that some subset of the organisers has significant interest in those communities and proactively seeks to add speakers from them.
As far as I can tell, this isn’t true. My model of Austin, Saul and Rachel did indeed invite tons of people from different fields, and it happened to be that these people developed an interest in prediction markets and wanted to come.
I guess I don’t super have a feeling of edgelordism, though I do see a pretty extreme commitment to openness. To be clear, I am not like “these people aren’t at all edgy for the sake of edgy”, but there are people for which I get that vibe much more. It feels much more like a deep commitment to something that happens to give rise to an intense openness to stuff here.
“You can do better at displaying openness by explicitly denying access to certain gerrymandered ideas” is certainly a take. Not necessarily a wrong one, but a fragile knife to walk, to mix metaphors.
One might distinguish de jure openness (“We let everyone in!”) with de facto (“We attract X subgroups, and repel Y!”). The homogeneity and narrowness of the recent conference might suggest the former approach has not been successful at intellectual openness.
The homogeneity and narrowness of the conference might also suggest various limits and pipeline problems like narrowing from general population to “the demographics of blogging” to “the demographics of EA in general” to “the demographics of forecasting” to “the demographic willing and able to attend a conference about these things.”
Perhaps the tradeoff is worth it, to clearly and loudly dismiss a noticeable and direly hated minority. My prediction is doing so will not actually improve openness, but it could be an interesting experiment and at least it won’t generate stupid Grauniad hit pieces (a competing fluff piece, maybe). Anti-Manifest when and where?
Have you considered that the reason you don’t see a paradox here is because you are not one of the minorities targeted by the abhorrent views you and your organisation seek to platform?
I have considered it, though most of my staff (which I of course recognize is a biased sample, but it’s what I have) and a large fractions of my friends who I talked to about this are in a bunch of the obviously targeted demographics (most relevantly many of them are jewish), and I don’t think they feel differently. Indeed, there was literally a Shabbat service at the event.
I am pretty confident that is not the reason for my belief, and if I was jewish or black, which seem like the obvious demographics, I would not believe something different here, though it’s of course hard to know with such a substantial counterfactual.
As a side note: I would like to flag that a common meme in the HBD crowd seemed to be that Ashkenazim are the best and the most intelligent race, and that Jewish people were overrepresented among them.
When you say “scientific racists and eugenicists” how often would you say you heard things like “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect” or “poor people shouldn’t have kids” as opposed to “there are slight differences between racial groups” or “people should be able to select their children for intelligence”.
Because both sets of statements are technically racist and eugenicist but I think there is a pretty large gap between them. What exactly did you hear?
I feel like listing specific examples is pretty difficult without compromising anonymity, but at least I heard a range of takes between those more mellow examples you gave and a few times even beyond what your more incendiary examples were. There are incentives to leave more shocking views implicit.
To be fair it is pretty difficult to tell to what degree some of the more extreme views were views that the people actually held, and to what degree they were just attempts to be shocking, edgy, and contrarian (or funny). They might work as status signals as well—”I can say this outrageous thing out loud and nothing is going to happen”. If push came to shove I doubt many of people saying these things would say they actually subscribe to these what they imply (I could be wrong about this, though).
It’s pretty damning of an event in my view if people are saying things beyond “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect.” (Or indeed, if they are literally saying just that.)
Many not themselves bigoted people in the rationalist community seem to really hate the idea that HBD people are covering up bad intentions with a veneer of just being interested in scientific questions about the genetics of intelligence because they pattern-match it to accusations of “dog-whistling” on twitter and correctly note that such accusations are epistemically dodgy, because they are so hard to disprove even in cases where they are false. (And also, the rationalists themselves I think, often are interested in scientific racist ideas simply because they want to know whether scary taboo things are true.) But these rationalists should in my view remember that:
A) It IS possible for people to “hide their power level” so to speak (https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/hide-your-power-level) and people on the far-right (amongst others) do do that. (Unsurprisingly, as they have strong incentives to do so.) Part of the reason this sometimes works is because most people understand that accusations that someone is doing this are sometimes made frivolously because they are to disprove.
B) There are people who hate Black people (and in the context of US HBD it usually is about Black people, even if literal Nazis care more about antisemitism), and enjoy participating in groups that are hostile to them. (These people can easily be Jewish or Asian so “but they’re not actually a white supremacist” is not much of a defense here.)
C) For extremely obvious reasons, scientific racism is extremely attractive to people who genuinely hate black people.
D) Scientific racism is extremely unpopular in the wider world of people who don’t hate Black people.
Together, A-D) make it I suspect very easy to attract the kind of people who say things more extreme than “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect” if you signal openess to HBD/scientific racism by attracting speakers associated with it. They also mean that some (in my view, probably most, but I can’t prove that) scientists who believe in scientific racism but claim a lack of personal prejudice are just lying about it, and actually are hostile to Black people.
Thank you for clarifying. I would regard Nathan’s first pair of examples as racist and eugenic, but importantly not his second pair. My experience at Summer Camp and Manifest was that I did not hear anything like the first pair or anything more extreme. (I did not attend Less Online or the Curtis Yarvin party so I cannot speak to what happened there). I think I understand why you did not include many concrete examples, but the accusation of racism without concrete examples mostly comes off as name-calling to me. The “HBD” label also comes off to me as name-calling, as I only ever hear it used by people attacking it, and they don’t ever seem to say much more than “racist” in their own definitions of it. I haven’t really seen people say “yes, I believe in HBD and here is what I mean by that”, but maybe I’m just not reading the right people. If you could point me at such a person that might be useful. But now it seems you are claiming to have heard significantly more extreme things than I did. And I’m curious why that is.
I was at Manifest as a volunteer, and I also saw much of the same behaviour as you. If I had known scientific racism or eugenics were acceptable topics of conversation there, I wouldn’t have gone. I’m increasingly glad I decided not to organise a talk.
EA needs to recognise that even associating with scientific racists and eugenicists turns away many of the kinds of bright, kind, ambitious people the movement needs. I am exhausted at having to tell people I am an EA ‘but not one of those ones’. If the movement truly values diversity of views, we should value the people we’re turning away just as much.
Edit: David Thorstad levelled a very good criticism of this comment, which I fully endorse & agree with. I did write this strategically to be persuasive in the forum context, at the cost of expressing my stronger beliefs that scientific racism & eugenics are factually & morally wrong over and above just being reputational or strategic concerns for EA.
Hey huw—I’m very grateful that you took the time to volunteer at Manifest. I hope that you overall enjoyed your time at the festival; either way, thanks for the feedback.
I don’t love that some guests we invited may turn away bright, ambitious, and especially kind folks like yourself; I write a bit more about this here. I think the opposite is true as well, though, where left-leaning views turn away some of the most awesome up-and-coming folks. My subjective guess is that EA as a whole is far more likely to suffer from the latter failure mode.
In any case, I expect EAGs to represent more of an official EA party line with respect to who they include or exclude, and encourage you to look there if you don’t find Manifest to your tastes. One of the explicit tenets of Manifest that distinguishes it from an EAG is that we are default-open rather than default-closed; there’s no application process where we screen attendees to conform to a particular mold.
Here’s how I interpret your response:
Manifest is cool and open; EA is snooty and closed.
Manfiest values free discourse; EA is stifling.
EAG and Manifest are equally controversial because EA has leftists and Manifest has rightists.
Manifest is just getting flak from the left because Manifest has some right-leaning people.
Sure some bright, ambitious, kind people turn away, but that’s just because they’re too leftist and an equally large amount of bright, ambitious, kind people would bounce off if Manifest were more leftist as well.
Turning away people is never the right thing to do unless they pose a physical threat.
Manifest faces trade-offs and these trade-offs go in equal directions.
I think this response is a false equivalence and feels dismissive of the concerns being expressed.
My issue is not that I’m leftist and don’t like right-wing opinions and just want to toe the “party line”. I am actually quite moderate, attend right-wing conferences, and share a lot of misgivings with left-wing culture + cancel culture + progressives.
My issue is that I don’t like having platformed speakers who think that trans people are mentally ill, that black professionals are easily dismissed affirmative action hires (or worse: animals). I don’t like cancel culture but I do think there needs to be some sort of “line” established of acceptable conduct and I think this goes way beyond right vs. left and into something very dark and different.
I think this comment does a really bad job of interpreting Austin in good faith. You are putting words in his mouth, rewriting the tone and substance of his comment so that it is much more contentious than what he actually expressed. Austin did not claim:
that Manifest is cooler or less snooty than EA
that EA and Manifest are equally controversial
that turning people away is never the right thing to do (baring a physical threat)
I think it is pretty poor form to read someone’s comment in such a hostile way and then attribute views to them they didn’t express.
I’d be curious to hear from @Austin some thoughts on where you think the line of acceptable conduct is? (Though I know it’s really tricky to specify, as argued here.)
Mm, for example, I think using the word “fag” in conversation is somewhat past the line; I don’t see why that kind of epithet would need to be used at Manifest, and hope that I would have spoken out against that kind of behavior if I had witnessed it. (I’m naturally not a very confrontational person, fwiw).
I don’t remember any instances or interactions throughout Manifest that I witnessed which got close to the line; it’s possible it didn’t happen in front of me, because of my status as an organizer, but I think this was reflective of the vast majority of attendee experiences. In the feedback form, two commenters described interactions that feel past the line to me (which I detail here).
❤️ I do wanna add that every interaction I had with you, Rachel, Saul, and all staff & volunteers was overwhelmingly positive, and I’d love to hang again IRL :) Were it not for the issue at hand, I would’ve also rated Manifest an 8–9 on my feedback form, you put on one hell of an event! I also appreciate your openness to feedback; there’s no way I would’ve posted publicly under my real name if I felt like I would get any grief or repercussions for it—that’s rare. (I don’t think I have much else persuasive to say on the main topic)
There have been a lot of EAGs with a lot of attendees, so I think it’s reasonable to ask for specific support for this proposition:
Which specific events and/or attendees at past EAGs have—or would reasonably be expected to—“turn away some of the most awesome up-and-coming folks”?
I have heard from many conversatives (and some grey tribe people) over the years that they feel very unwelcome at EA events (which is not very surprising, given quotes in the OP which expresses horror at a conference that might be 50% republicans, though I understand that might be more of a US/non-US cultural misunderstanding).
I don’t pay that much attention to which speakers go to EAG, so I am less sure about speakers, but there have been a bunch of radical-leftist animal rights people at various conferences that have been cited to me many times as something that made very promising young people substantially less likely to attend (I don’t want to dox the relevant attendees here, but would be happy to DM you some names if you want).
“there have been a bunch of radical-leftist animal rights people at various conferences that have been cited to me many times as something that made very promising young people substantially less likely to attend (I don’t want to dox the relevant attendees here, but would be happy to DM you some names if you want).”
I’m curious about the type of behaviour rather than the names of the people.
As an example of something that I think causes people to have this reaction, DxE coordinated and tried to stage a protest at the EA Global I organized in 2015, because we served some meat at the event. DxE also staged a protest at another CFAR event that I helped organize in 2016. Their protests at the time consisted of disruptively blocking access to the food and screaming very loudly (sometimes with a megaphone) at the people trying to get food about how they are evil (everyone gets to hear this, though it’s directed at the people who eat meat) until they get escorted out by security.
Some of their other public protests involve showering the floor and furniture in pig blood: https://www.totallyveganbuzz.com/headline-posts/vegan-activists-arrested-after-storming-mcdonalds-wearing-pig-masks-and-smearing-blood-across-the-floor/
(Also, to be clear on my position, I think Wayne Hsiung, head of DxE is a pretty terrible person with a history of disruption and advocating for pretty extreme bad things in my books, and I still think it would be good for him to be invited to Manifest, especially if he would debate his positions with someone, and he commits to not staging some kind of disruptive protest)
Thanks; this is helpful. It does seem reasonable that at least certain “radical-leftist animal rights people” would create an unwelcoming environment for many moderates and conservatives (and probably others too).
I am more hesitant to deny people admission to an event based on their ideological views (as long as they are fairly well-behaved) than I am to decide not to give them a spot on the agenda or “special guest” status. For example, aggressive proselytism of uninterested and unwilling people is annoying, whether the offender is preaching religion, politics, animal rights, operating-system preference, or sports fandom. I would deny admission for a history of that kind of behavior, but I would view it as application of a viewpoint-neutral conduct rule. Even the First Amendment doesn’t broadly grant people the right to aggressively push their views on an unwilling listener.
I don’t think it’s a function of specific events or speakers or attendees at an EAG, and more of like, a general sense that interesting and talented young folks no longer cite EA as a thing they support. I feel like Bentham’s Bulldog is almost the exception to that proves the rule. This is super vibes-based though, and I’m curious if others in the community agree or disagree with this take.
Two years ago, Tyler Cowen wrote
and this no longer feels true to me.
Maybe it’s because EA had more money two years ago, not because EA is too left-leaning
I do think Manifest and the Manifund team try to communicate a philosophy of extreme transparency and extreme openness for any conversational topic that people want to bring (of course barring anything that actually involves directly harassing someone). I, of all people, had a bunch of arguments with Austin over the last 1-2 years about whether some people should be more clearly deplatformed or excluded from conversations (and I think I am already at least a 95th percentile person on this dimension)
I think this is overall admirable, but I am sad that you ended up attending without that being properly sign-posted to you.
I guess I am trying to elucidate that the paradox of intolerance applies to this kind of extreme openness/transparency. The more open Manifest is to offensive, incorrect, and harmful ideas, the less of any other kinds of ideas it will attract. I don’t think there is an effective way to signpost that openness without losing the rest of their audience; nobody but scientific racists would go to a conference that signposted ‘it’s acceptable to be scientifically racist here’.
Anyway. It’s obviously their prerogative to host such a conference if they want. But it is equally up to EA to decide where to draw the line out of their own best interests. If that line isn’t an outright intolerance of scientific racism and eugenics, I don’t think EA will be able to draw in enough new members to survive.
Huw: To what extent is this EA verses rationality? Above you keep saying, “EA needs to” but these are ultimately rationalist conferences. For example, I’m not sure what more we can do to loudly signal Vassar isn’t EA. He’s banned from literally everything and has been for coming up to 10 years. I am pretty sure that extends to multiple people listed here. I am just not sure how public those decisions are so I will stop listing but (shoots karma into space) I wouldn’t go near half of these people with a 60 foot long stick.
Steelmanning Huw’s comments, I interpret “it is equally up to EA to decide where to draw the line out of their own best interests” as speaking out against certain things and being very careful to not give the impression of accepting or tolerating them. Indicia exist that could cause a reasonable person to think that Manifest was somehow related to EA—it was promoted on this Forum, Manifold has received significant funding from an “EA” coded source (i.e., FTXFF), a number of prominent EAs were reportedly in attendance, etc. So one could reach a conclusion that EA needs to distance itself more sharply and firmly from this while recognizing that the conferences are not under EA control.
Firm separation sounds great to me. I just also want to voice something like “Many people in the community have firmly taken strong stances” but regardless of what we say or do get lumped in with a load of stuff that we’ve pretty clearly said we find abhorrent and have firmly exiled from our community spaces (Im thinking of the case of Vassar here but also Im pretty sure they don’t want to be in EA spaces anyway because they aren’t EA!).
Also, to be clear, I have no idea what people mean by describing Manifest as a “rationalist” conference. It doesn’t advertise itself much to rationalists, and I, as the person who maybe next to Eliezer Yudkowsky has the most authority to declare something “rationalist” or not, would not apply that label to that conference, and also have no particularly meaningful control about who shows up to it.
I’m surprised you say you have “no idea what people mean.” The Manifest / Summer Camp / LessOnline trio made Manifest seem closer to “project the LessWrong team is deeply involved with” than “some organization is renting out our space.”
Among the things that gave me this impression were Raemon’s post “some thoughts on LessOnline” and the less.online website, both of which integrate content about Manifest without clear differentiation.
Now that I’m looking at these with a more careful eye, I can see that they all say Manifest is independently operated with its own organizers, etc. I can understand how from the inside, it would be obvious that Manifest was run by completely different people and had (I’m now presuming) little direct LessWrong involvement. I just think it should be apparent that this is less clear from the outside, and it wouldn’t be hard for someone to be confused on this point.
Granted, I didn’t go to any of these, I’ve just seen some stuff about them online, so discount this take appropriately. But my impression is that if a friend had asked me “hey, I heard about Manifest, is that a Rationalist thing?” I think “yes” would have been a less misleading answer than “no.”
Yeah, I think this is fair. I think using the language “no idea what people mean” in exchange for “I think these people are wrong and I think are capable of figuring out that they are wrong” (which is closer to what I meant) is a bad rhetorical move and I shouldn’t have used it.
Sure, we definitely collaborated a bunch! But a core component of our contract and arrangement with Manifest, which they repeatedly emphasized, is that they find it very costly for us to limit their attendance (and this is of course a very reasonable request as a paying client of Lighthaven).
I mean, I don’t really see the paradox in this case. I am totally OK attending a conference with people who I strongly disagree with or who I think are generally being harmful for the world in a bunch of different ways (and I think this is also true for the vast majority of attendees at Manifest).
I feel like the solution to this paradox is to just have a conference for people who are fine with attending an event with that disagreement present, which Manifest is IMO pretty clearly signaling it is trying to be. People don’t have to attend, but where is the paradox?
The paradox IMO only applies if for some reason the different groups actually start competing or interfering with each other, but I had no run-ins with any of these people, and nobody seemed to do any kind of bullying or threaten violence or anything else that seems like it would actually pose a fundamental conflict here.
I again think it’s valuable and important to sign-post that this is the kind of event where people with strong disagreements and drastically different beliefs and moral perspectives will attend, but I feel like overall Manifund and Manifest have been pretty consistent in that messaging (though still not perfect, and I expect future years to have less of an issue here, since people can see how the previous years were).
The paradox is that openness to these kinds of speakers makes the conference much less attractive and acceptable to the large swathe of people interested in forecasting but not interested in engaging with racists. The conference does not need to literally bar this swathe from attending to effectively dissuade them from doing so. Consider how a similar selection of blatant homophobes would affect LGBT+ folks’ decision to attend.
(edit: some cool voting patterns happening huh)
If you cancel speakers from attending a future Manifest, won’t that also make the conference less attractive and acceptable to a large swathe of people interested in forecasting?
Consider the relative sizes of the groups, and their respective intellectual honesty and calibre. Manifest can be intellectually open, rigorous, and not deliberately platform racists—it really is possible. And to be clear, I’m not saying ban people who agree with XYZ speaker with racist ties—I’m saying don’t seek to deliberately invite those speakers. Manifest has already heard from them, do they really need annual updates?
It seems like you are referring to Richard Hanania—who has been invited twice. I suspect that he was invited because Hanania has been an outspoken advocate of prediction markets. I find it highly doubtful that Hanania has, on net, pushed more people away from Manifest (and prediction markets) than been a draw to them attending.
It’s not just a matter of a speaker’s net effect on attendance/interest. Alex Jones would probably draw lots of new people to a Manifest conference, but are they types of people you want to be there? Who you choose to platform, especially at a small, young conference, will have a large effect on the makeup and culture of the related communities.
Additionally, given how toxic these views are in the wider culture, any association between them and prediction markets are likely to be bad for the long-term health of the prediction community.
In the left-wing EA culture. Most of these people have been widely published in magazines, featured on major TV programs, etc.
Fwiw, I think this is precisely why you don’t want to invite people solely on popularity. Jones is popular and charismatic but epistemically not someone I want to benefit.
The views of the race science guys on race or Hanson’s edgelording about rape strike me as far more tolerated in (West Coast) EA culture than I would guess they would be in mainstream US conservatism. (Despite EAs no doubt being anti-conservative in many other ways.)
There are other examples, and I do not share your doubt.
I am strongly in favor of having more forecasting conferences! I think having a more orthodox and professional forecasting conference could be great and I would love to host it. I agree there is somewhat of a limited resource in terms of conference-bandwidth here, but I think on the margin there is just space for multiple events with different priorities here.
I claim Manifest would do better by it’s own lights (i.e. openness to many ideas) if they were more accomodating to people who find racism distasteful than to those who find it acceptable. But also, as one of very few conferences on a niche topic, Manifest holds some responsibility to the current and future forecasting community. On a moral and intellectual basis, barring explicit racists seems much more reasonable than cultivating a home for racists. There is no necessary connection between forecasting and racism—it is a relationship contingent upon particular histories and internet groups. Manifest can decide to continue that relationship or disrupt it.
I feel sympathy for the “cultivating a home for racists” comparison, but like, my sense is just that Manifest just invited anyone who wanted to come with any reasonably large following of any kind. I don’t think they were trying in any way to “cultivate a home for racists”.
I feel hesitant to put more complicated reputational burdens on conference organizers. It is already an enormously thankless job, and while I agree there is conference fatigue and so that means there are some commons to be allocated here, I think on the margin it’s more productive to encourage people to run their own conferences instead of putting more constraints on existing organizers.
I think one way you can read this situation is: racists are looking for an “intellectual home” in some sense, and since they don’t find one in most of the mainstream, they look for places that they can parasitically occupy and use for their own ends. The warning here is: the forecasting community need not only to avoid cultivating a home for racists, but also to proactively defend against racists cultivating a home for themselves. And if the forecasting community can’t build walls against this kind of parasitism, then the rationalist community needs to protect themselves from the forecasting community. And if they can’t do that, then EA needs to protect itself from the rationalist community.
The core of much of this thinking is that racists (and fascists, the alt-right generally) don’t play fair in the marketplace of ideas, and they will manipulate and exploit your welcome if you extend them one. I’m not sure how well I can defend this idea (might write a top-level comment about it if I can feel confident enough about it), but I think that’s often what people are getting at with these kinds of concerns.
Yeah, to be clear, I think this is a real dynamic (as Scott Alexander has I think cogently written about here [1]). I think in as much as this is the concern, I am pretty into thinking about the dynamics here, and strongly agree that defenses for this kind of stuff are important.
I also think similar things are true about people on the far left and a bunch of other social clusters with a history of trying to establish themselves in places with attack surface like this.
I think a reasonable thing would definitely be to see whether any specific subculture is growing at a very disproportionate rate in terms of attendance for events like Manifest, as well as to think about good ways of defending against this kind of takeover. My model of Manifest is probably not doing enough modeling about this kind of hostile subculture growth, though my guess is they’ll learn quickly as it becomes a more apparent problem.
I understand what you’re getting at, but would flag that all these categories are pretty coarse.
The “forecasting community” sounds similar to the “finance community”. In finance, there are tons of subcommunities. Chicago economists are nothing like wolf-of-wallstreet salesmen.
Similarly, I don’t see there being a coherent “forecasting” community now. There’s a bunch of very different clusters of people.
Arguably this conference was more about the “Manifold community”, which is large and diverse in a similar way to the “Reddit community”.
Yeah this is well put. Not sure I endorse, but equally, i don’t want forecasting to be a home for racists.
I’m not 100% sure I endorse either, to be fair. I’ve heard this story from many people and I think it’s a useful story to have in mind, but I don’t feel like I’ve seen enough concrete evidence and thought enough about alternative explanations to really vouch that it’s right.
Yes ‘cultivate’ is too strong—but the rate of speakers of this kind is way above what one would expect just from the happenstance crossover of interests. Like my guess here is that some subset of the organisers has significant interest in those communities and proactively seeks to add speakers from them. There are speakers/panellists whose connection to any of the Manifest topics are tenuous, and there are other fields with tenuous connections which are not drawn on much by Manifest—e.g. formal risk analysis, actuarial studies, safety engineering, geopolitics, statistics. All that to say there appears to be at least some predilection for edgelordism, above and beyond any coinciding of interests.
As far as I can tell, this isn’t true. My model of Austin, Saul and Rachel did indeed invite tons of people from different fields, and it happened to be that these people developed an interest in prediction markets and wanted to come.
I guess I don’t super have a feeling of edgelordism, though I do see a pretty extreme commitment to openness. To be clear, I am not like “these people aren’t at all edgy for the sake of edgy”, but there are people for which I get that vibe much more. It feels much more like a deep commitment to something that happens to give rise to an intense openness to stuff here.
“You can do better at displaying openness by explicitly denying access to certain gerrymandered ideas” is certainly a take. Not necessarily a wrong one, but a fragile knife to walk, to mix metaphors.
One might distinguish de jure openness (“We let everyone in!”) with de facto (“We attract X subgroups, and repel Y!”). The homogeneity and narrowness of the recent conference might suggest the former approach has not been successful at intellectual openness.
The homogeneity and narrowness of the conference might also suggest various limits and pipeline problems like narrowing from general population to “the demographics of blogging” to “the demographics of EA in general” to “the demographics of forecasting” to “the demographic willing and able to attend a conference about these things.”
Perhaps the tradeoff is worth it, to clearly and loudly dismiss a noticeable and direly hated minority. My prediction is doing so will not actually improve openness, but it could be an interesting experiment and at least it won’t generate stupid Grauniad hit pieces (a competing fluff piece, maybe). Anti-Manifest when and where?
Have you considered that the reason you don’t see a paradox here is because you are not one of the minorities targeted by the abhorrent views you and your organisation seek to platform?
I have considered it, though most of my staff (which I of course recognize is a biased sample, but it’s what I have) and a large fractions of my friends who I talked to about this are in a bunch of the obviously targeted demographics (most relevantly many of them are jewish), and I don’t think they feel differently. Indeed, there was literally a Shabbat service at the event.
I am pretty confident that is not the reason for my belief, and if I was jewish or black, which seem like the obvious demographics, I would not believe something different here, though it’s of course hard to know with such a substantial counterfactual.
As a side note: I would like to flag that a common meme in the HBD crowd seemed to be that Ashkenazim are the best and the most intelligent race, and that Jewish people were overrepresented among them.
Please only answer if you are comfortable.
When you say “scientific racists and eugenicists” how often would you say you heard things like “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect” or “poor people shouldn’t have kids” as opposed to “there are slight differences between racial groups” or “people should be able to select their children for intelligence”.
Because both sets of statements are technically racist and eugenicist but I think there is a pretty large gap between them. What exactly did you hear?
I feel like listing specific examples is pretty difficult without compromising anonymity, but at least I heard a range of takes between those more mellow examples you gave and a few times even beyond what your more incendiary examples were. There are incentives to leave more shocking views implicit.
To be fair it is pretty difficult to tell to what degree some of the more extreme views were views that the people actually held, and to what degree they were just attempts to be shocking, edgy, and contrarian (or funny). They might work as status signals as well—”I can say this outrageous thing out loud and nothing is going to happen”. If push came to shove I doubt many of people saying these things would say they actually subscribe to these what they imply (I could be wrong about this, though).
It’s pretty damning of an event in my view if people are saying things beyond “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect.” (Or indeed, if they are literally saying just that.)
Many not themselves bigoted people in the rationalist community seem to really hate the idea that HBD people are covering up bad intentions with a veneer of just being interested in scientific questions about the genetics of intelligence because they pattern-match it to accusations of “dog-whistling” on twitter and correctly note that such accusations are epistemically dodgy, because they are so hard to disprove even in cases where they are false. (And also, the rationalists themselves I think, often are interested in scientific racist ideas simply because they want to know whether scary taboo things are true.) But these rationalists should in my view remember that:
A) It IS possible for people to “hide their power level” so to speak (https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/hide-your-power-level) and people on the far-right (amongst others) do do that. (Unsurprisingly, as they have strong incentives to do so.) Part of the reason this sometimes works is because most people understand that accusations that someone is doing this are sometimes made frivolously because they are to disprove.
B) There are people who hate Black people (and in the context of US HBD it usually is about Black people, even if literal Nazis care more about antisemitism), and enjoy participating in groups that are hostile to them. (These people can easily be Jewish or Asian so “but they’re not actually a white supremacist” is not much of a defense here.)
C) For extremely obvious reasons, scientific racism is extremely attractive to people who genuinely hate black people.
D) Scientific racism is extremely unpopular in the wider world of people who don’t hate Black people.
Together, A-D) make it I suspect very easy to attract the kind of people who say things more extreme than “some races are worse than others and don’t deserve respect” if you signal openess to HBD/scientific racism by attracting speakers associated with it. They also mean that some (in my view, probably most, but I can’t prove that) scientists who believe in scientific racism but claim a lack of personal prejudice are just lying about it, and actually are hostile to Black people.
Yeah i agree it is pretty damning.
Thank you for clarifying. I would regard Nathan’s first pair of examples as racist and eugenic, but importantly not his second pair. My experience at Summer Camp and Manifest was that I did not hear anything like the first pair or anything more extreme. (I did not attend Less Online or the Curtis Yarvin party so I cannot speak to what happened there). I think I understand why you did not include many concrete examples, but the accusation of racism without concrete examples mostly comes off as name-calling to me. The “HBD” label also comes off to me as name-calling, as I only ever hear it used by people attacking it, and they don’t ever seem to say much more than “racist” in their own definitions of it. I haven’t really seen people say “yes, I believe in HBD and here is what I mean by that”, but maybe I’m just not reading the right people. If you could point me at such a person that might be useful. But now it seems you are claiming to have heard significantly more extreme things than I did. And I’m curious why that is.
I’m sorry that happened. Ooof.