Forecasting (Shenanigans Workshop)
Hey everyone,
For April’s Shenanigans, Isidor will be holding a workshop on Forecasting.
Forecasting is the art and science of predicting the future. Forecasting can help us get a better sense of what will happen in the future, so that we can prepare appropriately. It is a significant aspect of EA strategy around pandemic preparedness (see biosecurity), AI alignment, animal product alternatives, and many other topics.
You’re very welcome, even if you’ve never been to a meetup, or you feel like you don’t fit in. Here is the link to our last event, maybe you know some people already: Yes/No Debate (EA Shenanigans)
Time: The workshop starts at 19:00, feel free to arrive by 18:30. Afterward, there will be time for socializing[1].
Food: I’ll bring pita bread, vegetables and dips.
Location: The Chaos Computer Club Berlin can comfortably fit about 20 people. Please RSVP so we know how many to expect.
Directions (German): https://berlin.ccc.de/page/anfahrt[2]
Please contact __nobody if you have any questions about the location.
I’ve just created the event for the next workshop on May 16, Teaching how to teach (Shenanigans Workshop).
An amateur’s unqualified musings on learning and relating
Weaving together mindfulness, rationality, teaching and authentic relating.
We’ll explore something in the direction of how to teach yourself, teaching as a metaphor for relating, and how to apply insights from it to what you care about.
I’m happy to see you there again if you’re interested in that topic as well. :)
Since we talked about calibration and I suggested exercising the right confidence intervals: There’s a website for that!
https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html
There’s a new sequence on the EA Forum about forecasting / predicting the effectiveness of different interventions. I find it very interesting so far: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Everything: Predicting the Cost-Effectiveness of Deploying, Evaluating, and Developing New Interventions, and Beyond
The methods are probably too complex for personal use, but a demonstration of how forecasting can be applied on an institutional scale.