[Question] How to persuade a non-CS background person to believe AGI is 50% possible in 2040?

Most common people feel AGI is far from us intuitively. Some even think AGI will never be invented (Instead, we think AGI is 98% possible before 2200).

According to EA communtity’s and experts’ predictions, There’s 50% chance that first AGI appears before 2040-2050. I’ve surfed online for a long time, but I couldn’t find essays in common words to persuade computer science outsiders to believe this. Would anyone share me about essays talking about this?