Related entries: cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | longtermism
Given how much the scope of this entry/tag would overlap with the scope of an epistemic challenge to longtermism tag, and how much both would overlap with other entries/tags we already have, I think we should probably only have one or the other. (I could be wrong, though. Maybe we should have both but with one being wiki-only. Or maybe we should have both later on, once the Wiki has a larger set of entries and is perhaps getting more fine-grained.)
I agree with having this tag and subsuming epistemic challenge to longtermism under it. We do already have forecasting and AI forecasting, so some further thinking may be needed to avoid overlap.
Ok, I’ve now made a long-range forecasting tag, and added a note there that it should probably subsume/cover the epistemic challenge to longtermism as well.
And yeah, I’m open to people adjusting things later to reduce how many entries/tags we have on similar topics.
Another idea: Long-range forecasting (or some other name covering a similar topic).
See e.g. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/s8CwDrFqyeZexRPBP/link-how-feasible-is-long-range-forecasting-open-phil
Related entries: cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | longtermism
Given how much the scope of this entry/tag would overlap with the scope of an epistemic challenge to longtermism tag, and how much both would overlap with other entries/tags we already have, I think we should probably only have one or the other. (I could be wrong, though. Maybe we should have both but with one being wiki-only. Or maybe we should have both later on, once the Wiki has a larger set of entries and is perhaps getting more fine-grained.)
I agree with having this tag and subsuming epistemic challenge to longtermism under it. We do already have forecasting and AI forecasting, so some further thinking may be needed to avoid overlap.
Ok, I’ve now made a long-range forecasting tag, and added a note there that it should probably subsume/cover the epistemic challenge to longtermism as well.
And yeah, I’m open to people adjusting things later to reduce how many entries/tags we have on similar topics.