RSS

Long-range forecasting

TagLast edit: 3 Jun 2021 19:53 UTC by MichaelA

Bibliography

Sandberg, Anders (2021) Popper vs macrohistory: what can we say about the long-run future?, Oxford Karl Popper Society, January 25.

https://​​founderspledge.com/​​stories/​​dr-philip-tetlocks-forecasting-research-high-impact-funding-opportunity This discusses plans for “work on methodological questions with an eye towards hosting a forecasting tournament focused on global catastrophic risks in summer 2021. [Tetlock and a collaborator] call this “second generation forecasting”: forecasting that predicts events over longer timescales and in the face of deep uncertainty.”

Related entries

AI forecasting | cluelessness | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | longtermism

[Link] “How fea­si­ble is long-range fore­cast­ing?” (Open Phil)

Milan_Griffes11 Oct 2019 21:01 UTC
35 points
7 comments1 min readEA link

The Epistemic Challenge to Longter­mism (Tarsney, 2020)

MichaelA4 Apr 2021 3:09 UTC
59 points
28 comments2 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

Chris­tian Tarsney: Can we pre­dictably im­prove the far fu­ture?

EA Global18 Oct 2019 7:40 UTC
8 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Data on fore­cast­ing ac­cu­racy across differ­ent time hori­zons and lev­els of fore­caster experience

Charles_Dillon 27 May 2021 18:51 UTC
73 points
0 comments23 min readEA link

Chris­tian Tarsney on fu­ture bias and a pos­si­ble solu­tion to moral fanaticism

Pablo6 May 2021 10:39 UTC
26 points
3 comments1 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

[Question] What im­por­tant ques­tions are miss­ing from Me­tac­u­lus?

Charles_Dillon 26 May 2021 14:03 UTC
37 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Efforts to Im­prove the Ac­cu­racy of Our Judg­ments and Fore­casts (Open Philan­thropy)

EA Introductory Program25 Oct 2016 10:09 UTC
11 points
0 comments29 min readEA link
(www.openphilanthropy.org)

Su­perfore­cast­ing in a nutshell

lukeprog25 Feb 2021 6:11 UTC
29 points
2 comments4 min readEA link
(lukemuehlhauser.com)

[Question] How valuable would more aca­demic re­search on fore­cast­ing be? What ques­tions should be re­searched?

MichaelA12 Aug 2020 7:19 UTC
22 points
8 comments2 min readEA link

Thoughts on “A case against strong longter­mism” (Mas­rani)

MichaelA3 May 2021 14:22 UTC
38 points
33 comments2 min readEA link

For­mal­is­ing the “Wash­ing Out Hy­poth­e­sis”

dwebb25 Mar 2021 11:40 UTC
84 points
24 comments12 min readEA link

The Case for Strong Longtermism

Global Priorities Institute3 Sep 2019 1:17 UTC
12 points
1 comment6 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

David Rhys Bernard: Es­ti­mat­ing long-term effects with­out long-term data

EA Global6 Jul 2020 15:16 UTC
20 points
0 comments18 min readEA link
(www.youtube.com)

Sur­vey on AI ex­is­ten­tial risk scenarios

SamClarke8 Jun 2021 17:12 UTC
119 points
5 comments7 min readEA link

Overview of Re­think Pri­ori­ties’ work on risks from nu­clear weapons

MichaelA10 Jun 2021 18:48 UTC
31 points
0 comments3 min readEA link